Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nicholas Chia

Economist

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>Core inflation leapt to a multi-year high in May, which is at odds with the desultory growth outlook and still-sizeable economic slack.</li>
<li>A closer examination of the inflation print suggests that lockdowns were partially responsible for rising prices. As they come off by July, this should provide some respite from stirring prices.</li>
<li>But that is not to say that prices will tail off sharply. Instead, other factors will keep prices pressures elevated – firm global goods inflation, Rupee <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22832:1" rel="noopener">INR (USDINR CURNCY)</a>  weakness, higher oil and CPO prices, etc. In turn, CPI inflation is more likely to remain tilted to the upper end of the RBI's target corridor (2%-6%).</li>
<li>This leaves the RBI in a pickle. If prices show no sign of moderating, the central bank will have to contemplate an earlier-than-envisaged tightening of monetary conditions from 4Q21.</li>
</ul>


Core inflation leapt to a multi-year high in May, which is at odds with the desultory growth outlook and still-sizeable economic slack.
A closer examination of the inflation print suggests that lockdowns were partially responsible for rising prices. As they come off by July, this should provide some respite from stirring prices.
But that is not to say that prices will tail off sharply. Instead, other factors will keep prices pressures elevated – firm global goods inflation, Rupee INR (USDINR CURNCY)  weakness, higher oil and CPO prices, etc. In turn, CPI inflation is more likely to remain tilted to the upper end of the RBI's target corridor (2%-6%).
This leaves the RBI in a pickle. If prices show no sign of moderating, the central bank will have to contemplate an earlier-than-envisaged tightening of monetary conditions from 4Q21.


India Inflation: More To It Than Meets The Eye

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Cross Asset Strategy

Indian markets seem to have ignored all recent concerns given the horrid Covid situation on the ground. In USD terms the Sensex, for example, has been among the best performing markets over the past month.Is there simply something going on that does not easily meet the eye or have buyers been sucked in to a setup that warns of danger?

Indian markets seem to have ignored all recent concerns given the horrid Covid situation on the ground. In USD terms the Sensex, for example, has been among the best performing markets over the past month.Is there simply something going on that does not easily meet the eye or have buyers been sucked in to a setup that warns of danger?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

USD shows lead lows versus IDR, THB and INR that are trending higher already ahead of the likes of the SGD and KRW. USD/ZAR is making a macro low near 14 that has our attention and will see the EM complex follow this lead.DXY staged an impressive reversal Friday off of the 90.40 buy support (trendline and price) but our attention is centered around more bullish macro signals unfolding in the weekly cycle.A dollar low align nicely with our call for an SPX top near wedge line resistance. Short have been recommended in EEM and EWZ on the back of a USD low and rally cycle.

USD shows lead lows versus IDR, THB and INR that are trending higher already ahead of the likes of the SGD and KRW. USD/ZAR is making a macro low near 14 that has our attention and will see the EM complex follow this lead.DXY staged an impressive reversal Friday off of the 90.40 buy support (trendline and price) but our attention is centered around more bullish macro signals unfolding in the weekly cycle.A dollar low align nicely with our call for an SPX top near wedge line resistance. Short have been recommended in EEM and EWZ on the back of a USD low and rally cycle.

A discussion at the end of this week on Singapore’s Money FM rounds up some thoughts on FX and other financial markets.Below is an elaboration of some points made on the US, Europe, China, Commodities, Bonds, and India as well as a link to the radio interview.

A discussion at the end of this week on Singapore’s Money FM rounds up some thoughts on FX and other financial markets.Below is an elaboration of some points made on the US, Europe, China, Commodities, Bonds, and India as well as a link to the radio interview.

The price action seen across many Indian markets - Equities, Foreign Exchange, and Government bond yields - suggests that the underlying uptrend on the Nifty Index is likely to now resume after the sharp pullback of last week.

The price action seen across many Indian markets - Equities, Foreign Exchange, and Government bond yields - suggests that the underlying uptrend on the Nifty Index is likely to now resume after the sharp pullback of last week.

India

The Indian rupee is the official currency of India. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

INR (USDINR CURNCY)

India Inflation: More To It Than Meets The Eye

inflation leapt to a 6-month high in May, which is at odds with the still-sizeable slack in demand. Supply-side dynamics were clearly at work, and...

Nicholas Chia

India's Nifty: Have We Seen This Before?

Is there simply something going on that does not easily meet the eye or have buyers been sucked in to a setup that warns of danger?

Shyam Devani

USD Low Ties in with Risk Peak

DXY staged an impressive reversal Friday off of the 90.40 buy support (trendline and price) but our attention is centered around more bullish macro...

Thomas Schroeder

FX Summary Discussion at End of Q1

A summary radio discussion on foreign exchange and other financial markets as we approach Q2. Topics include the US, Europe, China, Oil, Bonds, and...

Shyam Devani

India's Nifty Support

Price action seen across Indian markets - Equities, FX, and Rates - suggests that the underlying uptrend on the Nifty Index may already be resuming.

Shyam Devani

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)