Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We believe the recent rally in US equities, particularly Al-related stocks, has masked signs of tightening global liquidity.</li><li>Against this backdrop, we expect a significant rotation of global capital toward Asia, which we believe is better positioned to convert Al-related CAPEX into sustained earnings growth.</li><li>Together with Thai corporate earnings that appear to have bottomed out and continued foreign fund inflows, these factors should support a valuation re-rating of the Thai equity market, underpinning our 12-month forward SET Index target of 1,705, which we expect could be achieved in 3Q26.</li></ul>

We believe the recent rally in US equities, particularly Al-related stocks, has masked signs of tightening global liquidity.Against this backdrop, we expect a significant rotation of global capital toward Asia, which we believe is better positioned to convert Al-related CAPEX into sustained earnings growth.Together with Thai corporate earnings that appear to have bottomed out and continued foreign fund inflows, these factors should support a valuation re-rating of the Thai equity market, underpinning our 12-month forward SET Index target of 1,705, which we expect could be achieved in 3Q26.

KTX Investment Outlook 3Q26: The Broken Backbone of Global Liquidity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The SET Index today is expected to rebound within a limited range, with the resistance at 1,270/1,280 points and the support at 1,252/1,239 points (200-day EMA).</li><li>External factors are slightly negative after the US July PPI rose more than expected, dampening hopes that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 bps at its mid-September meeting, though there may be a positive surprise from tonight’s meeting between the US and Ukraine if Ukraine agrees to Russia’s proposal, contrary to market expectations.</li><li>Domestic factors are slightly positive, supported by: i) better-than-expected 2Q25 earnings from Thai listed companies (+8.6%), with 1H25 earnings accounting for 57.5% of full-year estimates, which could lead to upward earnings and target revisions, and ii) the House of Representatives passing the 2026 fiscal budget bill last Friday, while the NESDC signaled a more positive outlook for the second half of the year compared to earlier concerns over US tariff hikes, adding upside to 2025E GDP growth and reducing the risk of contraction if Prime Minister Paetongtarn is found guilty by the court and a new prime minister must be selected on August 29.</li></ul>

The SET Index today is expected to rebound within a limited range, with the resistance at 1,270/1,280 points and the support at 1,252/1,239 points (200-day EMA).External factors are slightly negative after the US July PPI rose more than expected, dampening hopes that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 bps at its mid-September meeting, though there may be a positive surprise from tonight’s meeting between the US and Ukraine if Ukraine agrees to Russia’s proposal, contrary to market expectations.Domestic factors are slightly positive, supported by: i) better-than-expected 2Q25 earnings from Thai listed companies (+8.6%), with 1H25 earnings accounting for 57.5% of full-year estimates, which could lead to upward earnings and target revisions, and ii) the House of Representatives passing the 2026 fiscal budget bill last Friday, while the NESDC signaled a more positive outlook for the second half of the year compared to earlier concerns over US tariff hikes, adding upside to 2025E GDP growth and reducing the risk of contraction if Prime Minister Paetongtarn is found guilty by the court and a new prime minister must be selected on August 29.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 18, 2025

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>At Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2024, leading tech giants including Nvidia, AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm unveiled their latest offerings, signaling a competitive race to launch AI-centric products for consumer use.</li><li>These new releases are set to enhance the capabilities of upcoming AI-integrated smartphones and PCs amid other applications, launching later this year.</li><li>We anticipate these innovations will spark consumer interest, encouraging purchases or upgrades, and contribute to healthy shipment growth, continuing the momentum from the seasonal restocking observed in the second half of 2023.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

At Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2024, leading tech giants including Nvidia, AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm unveiled their latest offerings, signaling a competitive race to launch AI-centric products for consumer use.These new releases are set to enhance the capabilities of upcoming AI-integrated smartphones and PCs amid other applications, launching later this year.We anticipate these innovations will spark consumer interest, encouraging purchases or upgrades, and contribute to healthy shipment growth, continuing the momentum from the seasonal restocking observed in the second half of 2023.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Huawei's role in offering alternatives to foreign tech’s is prominent, but it's important to highlight the contribution of other smaller yet significant players in the development of home-grown solutions in China. </li><li>Nvidia faces significant revenue decline in China in the upcoming year to comply with US export curbs. The company is determined to protect its substantial revenue from the China market and expand its global presence aggressively to make up for the potential revenue loss from the China market.</li><li>Nvidia CFO said “China and other affected destinations consistently contributed approximately 2025% of data center revenue over the past few quarters”.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Huawei's role in offering alternatives to foreign tech’s is prominent, but it's important to highlight the contribution of other smaller yet significant players in the development of home-grown solutions in China. Nvidia faces significant revenue decline in China in the upcoming year to comply with US export curbs. The company is determined to protect its substantial revenue from the China market and expand its global presence aggressively to make up for the potential revenue loss from the China market.Nvidia CFO said “China and other affected destinations consistently contributed approximately 2025% of data center revenue over the past few quarters”.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Semiconductor – Domestic AI Chip Makers Accelerating Their Push as Nvidia’s Alternatives

<ul><li>NVIDIA reported another strong beat against elevated expectations, along with a strong outlook (guided 4Q revenue of US$20bn, vs consensus US$17.9bn), alleviating concerns on supply constraints and impact on China sales. Key highlights include: 1) FY4Q24E guidance beat on stronger topline/margin with strong AI demand and robust product pipeline into 2024</li><li>2) China’s sales to drop significantly in 4Q23, largely offset by strong growth in other regions, and new regulation-compliant solutions will be available for China (20-25% of DC sales) in the next few months</li><li>3) mgmt. guided continued chip capacity expansion to meet growth, and expected data center revenue to grow through 2025</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NVIDIA reported another strong beat against elevated expectations, along with a strong outlook (guided 4Q revenue of US$20bn, vs consensus US$17.9bn), alleviating concerns on supply constraints and impact on China sales. Key highlights include: 1) FY4Q24E guidance beat on stronger topline/margin with strong AI demand and robust product pipeline into 20242) China’s sales to drop significantly in 4Q23, largely offset by strong growth in other regions, and new regulation-compliant solutions will be available for China (20-25% of DC sales) in the next few months3) mgmt. guided continued chip capacity expansion to meet growth, and expected data center revenue to grow through 2025Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Technology – NVIDIA FY3Q24: Another Stunning Quarter on Robust AI Demand

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

KTX Investment Outlook 3Q26: The Broken Backbone of Global Liquidity

We believe the recent rally in US equities, particularly Al-related stocks, has masked signs of tightening global liquidity. Against this...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 18, 2025

The SET Index today is expected to rebound within a limited range, with the resistance at 1,270/1,280 points and the support at 1,252/1,239 points...

Krungthai XSpring

Semiconductor – CES 2024 Wrap Up

At Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2024, leading tech giants including Nvidia, AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm unveiled their latest offerings, signaling...

CMB International

China Semiconductor – Domestic AI Chip Makers Accelerating Their Push as Nvidia’s Alternatives

As the US tightens China’s access to advanced chips, we maintain our earlier view that domestic companies will look for Nvidia’s alternatives at a...

CMB International

China Technology – NVIDIA FY3Q24: Another Stunning Quarter on Robust AI Demand

NVIDIA reported another strong beat against elevated expectations, along with a strong outlook (guided 4Q revenue of US$20bn, vs consensus US$17.9bn)

CMB International

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