Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Considering of current financial outcome of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>, we cannot but favor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US).</a>
</li>
<li>Currently, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)</a> has a more favorable competitive landscape compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>.</li>
<li>The competition in PC CPU emphasizes not only performance but also heat dissipation and other techniques related to supply management.    </li>
</ul>


Considering of current financial outcome of Intel Corp (INTC US), we cannot but favor Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US).

Currently, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) has a more favorable competitive landscape compared to Intel Corp (INTC US).
The competition in PC CPU emphasizes not only performance but also heat dissipation and other techniques related to supply management.    


Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (II)

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Intel is pinning much hope on the success of the AIPC, a venture in which they are tied at the hip with Microsoft, which calls it a CoPilot+ PC</li>
<li>The AIPC/CoPilot+ PC concept is struggling to gain traction. They will sell in volume, but only because buyers will have limited alternatives available. Ultimately, we see AIPCs cannibalising non-AIPCs</li>
<li>Intel's performance was underwhelming to say the least, but at the same time, not in the least bit surprising. Earnings coming on January 23. </li>
</ul>


Intel is pinning much hope on the success of the AIPC, a venture in which they are tied at the hip with Microsoft, which calls it a CoPilot+ PC
The AIPC/CoPilot+ PC concept is struggling to gain traction. They will sell in volume, but only because buyers will have limited alternatives available. Ultimately, we see AIPCs cannibalising non-AIPCs
Intel's performance was underwhelming to say the least, but at the same time, not in the least bit surprising. Earnings coming on January 23. 


Intel @ CES 2025. Doubling Down On The AIPC & Other Fantastical Tales

<ul>
<li>Regardless of the circumstances, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> must select a new CEO and hope that a new strategy will turn the situation around.  </li>
<li>A possible decision to spin off Altera could signal the possibility of Intel further breaking into several parts.</li>
<li>For the near term, Intel must overcome financial and management challenges, and laying off 1/10 of its workforce is a short-term and necessary step.  </li>
</ul>


Regardless of the circumstances, Intel Corp (INTC US) must select a new CEO and hope that a new strategy will turn the situation around.  
A possible decision to spin off Altera could signal the possibility of Intel further breaking into several parts.
For the near term, Intel must overcome financial and management challenges, and laying off 1/10 of its workforce is a short-term and necessary step.  


Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey.

<ul>
<li>Laser focus, transparency and adoption of a "say do" approach to measuring success are now the order of the day at Intel</li>
<li>Data Center roadmap not in good shape and if IFS can't deliver, MJ won't hesitate to outsource DC products to TSMC alongside existing Client products.</li>
<li>Gaudi is not a mass market product, Falcon Shores won't be great either but we will listen, learn, iterate and fail quickly. Watch out NVIDIA !</li>
</ul>


Laser focus, transparency and adoption of a "say do" approach to measuring success are now the order of the day at Intel
Data Center roadmap not in good shape and if IFS can't deliver, MJ won't hesitate to outsource DC products to TSMC alongside existing Client products.
Gaudi is not a mass market product, Falcon Shores won't be great either but we will listen, learn, iterate and fail quickly. Watch out NVIDIA !


Intel. Laser Focus & No More Meaningless Life-Time Value Foundry Deal Updates

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Steady loss of market share to AMD in x86 PC and Server. Single design win for the GPU Max, overall no AI or Accelerator roadmap.  </li>
<li>Steady deterioration of the financials. Collapse in NON-GAAP Operating Profits, leading to negative Free Cash Flow, leading to increasing Net Debt. </li>
<li>Most damaging, IMO was during 3Q24 conference call (1st Nov 2024) when the CFO David Zinsner said: don’t expect a recovery before 2026. CEO Gelsinger was gone 1 month later. </li>
</ul>


Steady loss of market share to AMD in x86 PC and Server. Single design win for the GPU Max, overall no AI or Accelerator roadmap.  
Steady deterioration of the financials. Collapse in NON-GAAP Operating Profits, leading to negative Free Cash Flow, leading to increasing Net Debt. 
Most damaging, IMO was during 3Q24 conference call (1st Nov 2024) when the CFO David Zinsner said: don’t expect a recovery before 2026. CEO Gelsinger was gone 1 month later. 


United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (II)

Intel Corp's financial outcome favors Advanced Micro Devices in the competition for PC CPU market due to a more favorable competitive landscape.

Patrick Liao

Intel @ CES 2025. Doubling Down On The AIPC & Other Fantastical Tales

AIPC/CoPilot+ PC concept is struggling to gain traction. They will sell in volume, but only because buyers will have limited alternatives...

William Keating

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey.

Intel Corp faces challenges and must choose a new CEO, potentially signaling a breakup with a spinoff of Altera, amidst financial struggles and...

Patrick Liao

Intel. Laser Focus & No More Meaningless Life-Time Value Foundry Deal Updates

Laser focus, transparency & adopting a "say do" approach to measuring success will be the new Intel. No more meaningless LDV updates on IFS. DC...

William Keating

Intel: A Graphic Novel Of A Train Wreck

Everything that could go wrong did go wrong: losing market share to AMD, no success for GPU or Gaudi, financial deterioration, and finally CFO...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (II)

​Intel Corp's financial outcome favors Advanced Micro Devices in the competition for PC CPU market due to a more favorable competitive landscape.

Patrick Liao

Intel @ CES 2025. Doubling Down On The AIPC & Other Fantastical Tales

AIPC/CoPilot+ PC concept is struggling to gain traction. They will sell in volume, but only because buyers will have limited alternatives...

William Keating

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey.

​Intel Corp faces challenges and must choose a new CEO, potentially signaling a breakup with a spinoff of Altera, amidst financial struggles and...

Patrick Liao

Intel. Laser Focus & No More Meaningless Life-Time Value Foundry Deal Updates

Laser focus, transparency & adopting a "say do" approach to measuring success will be the new Intel. No more meaningless LDV updates on IFS. DC...

William Keating

Intel: A Graphic Novel Of A Train Wreck

Everything that could go wrong did go wrong: losing market share to AMD, no success for GPU or Gaudi, financial deterioration, and finally CFO...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel Corp's financial outcome favors Advanced Micro Devices in the competition for PC CPU market due to a more favorable competitive landscape.

Intel Corp faces challenges and must choose a new CEO, potentially signaling a breakup with a spinoff of Altera, amidst financial struggles and...