Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Taiwan's government has passed new major tax subsidies to support semiconductor firms' R&amp;D and capex spending.</li>
<li>TSMC results will be out this afternoon; Interestingly, TSMC's CEO has been buying shares during October, November, and December.</li>
<li>Hon Hai has begun iPhone 15 trial production, and Zhengzhou is back to 100%.</li>
</ul>


Taiwan's government has passed new major tax subsidies to support semiconductor firms' R&amp;D and capex spending.
TSMC results will be out this afternoon; Interestingly, TSMC's CEO has been buying shares during October, November, and December.
Hon Hai has begun iPhone 15 trial production, and Zhengzhou is back to 100%.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Global Optimism for Semi Stocks, Taiwan's New Subsidies, TSMC CEO Buying Stock

<ul>
<li>TSMC's revenue could drop in the near-term due to customers cutting orders, however full year 2023E growth still likely thanks to advanced chips.</li>
<li>Samsung has guided staff internally for a major slump in its semiconductor unit's operating profit.</li>
<li>Apple is pushing for price cuts amongst its suppliers due to weak end demand for its products.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's revenue could drop in the near-term due to customers cutting orders, however full year 2023E growth still likely thanks to advanced chips.
Samsung has guided staff internally for a major slump in its semiconductor unit's operating profit.
Apple is pushing for price cuts amongst its suppliers due to weak end demand for its products.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Signs TSMC Winning the 3-Nm Battle Vs. Samsung, Apple Bargaining Down Suppliers

<ul>
<li>We believe Elan Microelectronics has capacity for share buybacks in 2023E, and that it could be in shareholder interests.</li>
<li>Even in the coming 2023E down-year, we believe the company could generate over NT$1.7bn in EBITDA. Its balance sheet will remain net-cash.</li>
<li>The company is in a strong position as a leader in touch screens, touch pads, and fingerprint sensors. Intel's upcoming January webinar could provide clarity on the industry cycle.</li>
</ul>


We believe Elan Microelectronics has capacity for share buybacks in 2023E, and that it could be in shareholder interests.
Even in the coming 2023E down-year, we believe the company could generate over NT$1.7bn in EBITDA. Its balance sheet will remain net-cash.
The company is in a strong position as a leader in touch screens, touch pads, and fingerprint sensors. Intel's upcoming January webinar could provide clarity on the industry cycle.


Elan Microelectronics: Capacity for Share Buybacks in 2023E, Intel Event Could Provide Cycle Clarity

<ul>
<li>Intel outperformed TSMC in 1H December, and then TSMC outperformed after some negative rumors about an Intel product delay/cancellation.</li>
<li>After a quiet December, January will be a big month as we will have 4Q22E result for both companies. The expectatioins bar for INTC is set very low.</li>
<li>We see a potential Long INTC vs. Short TSMC opportunity <strong><em>after</em></strong> TSMC has released results and before INTC has released its results.</li>
</ul>


Intel outperformed TSMC in 1H December, and then TSMC outperformed after some negative rumors about an Intel product delay/cancellation.
After a quiet December, January will be a big month as we will have 4Q22E result for both companies. The expectatioins bar for INTC is set very low.
We see a potential Long INTC vs. Short TSMC opportunity after TSMC has released results and before INTC has released its results.


Intel Vs. TSMC Monitor: After a Quiet December, January Will Be a Big Month

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Micron's earnings call gives a good advanced warning of similar companies' reports</li>
<li>The company's downturn is the worst in the past 13 years</li>
<li>Not all chip companies will suffer this downturn, and few will do as badly as commodity memory makers.  Tool makers will feel the impact next year.</li>
</ul>


Micron's earnings call gives a good advanced warning of similar companies' reports
The company's downturn is the worst in the past 13 years
Not all chip companies will suffer this downturn, and few will do as badly as commodity memory makers.  Tool makers will feel the impact next year.


United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Global Optimism for Semi Stocks, Taiwan's New Subsidies, TSMC CEO Buying Stock

TSMC results will be released this afternoon. Notably, TSMC's CEO has been buying shares over the last three months. Hon Hai begins iPhone 15 trial...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Signs TSMC Winning the 3-Nm Battle Vs. Samsung, Apple Bargaining Down Suppliers

TSMC's revenue could drop in the near-term due to customers cutting orders, however full year 2023E growth still likely thanks to advanced chips.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel Vs. TSMC Monitor: After a Quiet December, January Will Be a Big Month

We see a potential Long INTC vs. Short TSMC opportunity after TSMC has released results and before INTC has released its results.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron Earnings Give Semi Market Outlook

Micron's just-announced revenues indicate trouble today for its peers and trouble next year for tool makers, but other sectors should fare much...

Jim Handy

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