Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The September semiconductor revenues are in, bringing the third quarter to a close.  Both the month and the quarter reached all-time highs.  Although today's boom shows no sign of ending, there is ample precedent to tell us what will occur once supply catches up with demand.  This Insight explores the current market and the likely outcome.</p>

The September semiconductor revenues are in, bringing the third quarter to a close.  Both the month and the quarter reached all-time highs.  Although today's boom shows no sign of ending, there is ample precedent to tell us what will occur once supply catches up with demand.  This Insight explores the current market and the likely outcome.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>SK hynix posted record revenues in 3Q21 despite lackluster performance from its DRAM business.  This provides the possibility that 4Q21 earnings, with continuing NAND flash success and the recovery of lost DRAM revenues, could be a stellar quarter for the company.</p>

SK hynix posted record revenues in 3Q21 despite lackluster performance from its DRAM business.  This provides the possibility that 4Q21 earnings, with continuing NAND flash success and the recovery of lost DRAM revenues, could be a stellar quarter for the company.

SK Hynix: Record Revenues, Promising Future

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<p>Intel’s CEO Pat Gelsinger is a religious man. In the 2000s, he wrote “Balancing Your Family, Faith, and Work” and “The Juggling Act: Bringing Balance to Your Faith, Family, and Work.” If one is an Intel investor today, you too need to have deep faith and believe that miracles are possible.  Like believing that Intel, who will have grown revenues at a 3.7% CAGR from 2011–2021 (inclusive of acquiring MobileEye and Altera), has lost its way on process manufacturing, and is hemorrhaging market share to AMD and ARM-based CPUs is poised to grow revenues at a 10–12% CAGR over the next 4-5 years. We are not believers.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Intel’s CEO Pat Gelsinger is a religious man. In the 2000s, he wrote “Balancing Your Family, Faith, and Work” and “The Juggling Act: Bringing Balance to Your Faith, Family, and Work.” If one is an Intel investor today, you too need to have deep faith and believe that miracles are possible.  Like believing that Intel, who will have grown revenues at a 3.7% CAGR from 2011–2021 (inclusive of acquiring MobileEye and Altera), has lost its way on process manufacturing, and is hemorrhaging market share to AMD and ARM-based CPUs is poised to grow revenues at a 10–12% CAGR over the next 4-5 years. We are not believers.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Equity Capital Markets

GLOBALFOUNDRIES  / Equity Capital Markets

<p>We offer some thoughts on Global Foundries coming IPO. We admire the strategic pivot the company took two years ago, and think there is alot to like here. The proposed $25-30B valuation does seem a bit high given TSMC trades at 13x forward EBITDA and this would be closer to 20x. Maybe they should see if Intel is still interested...</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We offer some thoughts on Global Foundries coming IPO. We admire the strategic pivot the company took two years ago, and think there is alot to like here. The proposed $25-30B valuation does seem a bit high given TSMC trades at 13x forward EBITDA and this would be closer to 20x. Maybe they should see if Intel is still interested...Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Global Foundries: Some Thoughts on the IPO

<p>GLOBALFOUNDRIES has filed for an IPO in the US.  The company's filing reveals a strategy that may not be focused on the leading edge of the market, but it seems to be well aimed at good margins and manageable R&amp;D costs.</p>

GLOBALFOUNDRIES has filed for an IPO in the US.  The company's filing reveals a strategy that may not be focused on the leading edge of the market, but it seems to be well aimed at good margins and manageable R&amp;D costs.

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Semiconductors Continue Full Speed Ahead

Again chip sales have reached record highs. How long will this last? What will happen when it ends? This Insight dips into that to provide some...

Jim Handy

SK Hynix: Record Revenues, Promising Future

Despite stumbling in DRAM, SK hynix posted record revenues, and seems poised to do even better in 4Q21. NAND flash is finally making important...

Jim Handy

Intel 3Q21: Delusions of a Madman

If one is an Intel investor today, you too need to have deep faith and believe that miracles are possible. Like believing Intel is poised to grow...

Aaron Gabin

Global Foundries: Some Thoughts on the IPO

We offer some thoughts on Global Foundries coming IPO. We admire the strategic pivot the company took two years ago. Valuation seems high though,...

Aaron Gabin

GLOBALFOUNDRIES IPO - Good Timing

Is this a good time for GLOBALFOUNDRIES to go public? Given the company's focus on older processes, and the market's current shortages, it seems...

Jim Handy

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