Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Next year's memory chip market - the swing factor in semiconductors - is highly dependent on whether or not today's COVID-19 pandemic leads to a global financial collapse.  This Smartkarma Insight provides two outlooks for the market, one based on a collapse, and the other based on a healthy economy.

Next year's memory chip market - the swing factor in semiconductors - is highly dependent on whether or not today's COVID-19 pandemic leads to a global financial collapse.  This Smartkarma Insight provides two outlooks for the market, one based on a collapse, and the other based on a healthy economy.

2021 Memory Market Hinges on Pandemic Response

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/867/original/2020-11-25_11-14-58.png?1606270511" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173867"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>FOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-<ul>
<li>
CONTRARIAN BUYS - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
CONTRARIAN SELLS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
TURNAROUNDS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
EX-GROWTH - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores</li>
</ul>In the two Contrarian quadrants, companies can remain outliers for extended periods, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jfe-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:210:1" rel="noopener">JFE (5411 JP)</a>  in Buys, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a> in Sells. The other quadrants see much more 'turnover' and van can offer profitable trading opportunities such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lixil-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1" rel="noopener">Lixil(5938 JP)</a> in Turnarounds, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ariake-japan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4908:1" rel="noopener">Ariake Japan (2815 JP)</a> in the Ex-Growth quadrant.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/896/original/2020-11-25_12-25-57.png?1606274769" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173896"></figure><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/903/original/2020-11-25_12-56-49.png?1606276623" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173903"></figure></section><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/7b61jl02dh0pzno/2020-11-25_12-43-55.png?dl=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CONTRARIAN BUYS</a> - In the DETAIL below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Contrarian Buys for potential opportunities. Subsequent Insights in this mini-series will look into the other three quadrants before concluding with one '2021 High Conviction' recommendation. </section>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsFOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-

CONTRARIAN BUYS - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

CONTRARIAN SELLS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

TURNAROUNDS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores

EX-GROWTH - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores
In the two Contrarian quadrants, companies can remain outliers for extended periods, such as JFE (5411 JP)  in Buys, Lasertec (6920 JP) in Sells. The other quadrants see much more 'turnover' and van can offer profitable trading opportunities such as Lixil(5938 JP) in Turnarounds, and Ariake Japan (2815 JP) in the Ex-Growth quadrant.CONTRARIAN BUYS - In the DETAIL below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Contrarian Buys for potential opportunities. Subsequent Insights in this mini-series will look into the other three quadrants before concluding with one '2021 High Conviction' recommendation. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Contrarian Buys

President

Thomas Coughlin

Coughlin Associates

Equity Bottom-Up

Recent Kioxia developments, and in particular, the development of its Ethernet native SSDs for a EBOF and the KumoScale block, file and object storage container storage are innovations that could drive additional value for the company and help in getting a better price in a future IPO, when the overall NAND flash industry is in a more profitable part of its cycle.

Recent Kioxia developments, and in particular, the development of its Ethernet native SSDs for a EBOF and the KumoScale block, file and object storage container storage are innovations that could drive additional value for the company and help in getting a better price in a future IPO, when the overall NAND flash industry is in a more profitable part of its cycle.

Kioxia Announcements Enhance Company Value

In SK hynix' most recent earnings call the CEO shared his vision to grow the company to annual revenues of ₩100 trillion.  While the Intel flash acquisition helps in that direction, it is hard to see how management hopes to achieve its goal to build revenues to this level.

In SK hynix' most recent earnings call the CEO shared his vision to grow the company to annual revenues of ₩100 trillion.  While the Intel flash acquisition helps in that direction, it is hard to see how management hopes to achieve its goal to build revenues to this level.

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micron-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13382:1" rel="noopener">Micron</a> last week made the surprise announcement that the company had begun volume shipments of the world’s first 176-layer 3D NAND flash memory chips. Separately, the company this week made some very interesting and frank disclosures at the Sanford C Bernstein Operational Decisions Broker Conference. Here's our thoughts on both of these recent developments.

Micron last week made the surprise announcement that the company had begun volume shipments of the world’s first 176-layer 3D NAND flash memory chips. Separately, the company this week made some very interesting and frank disclosures at the Sanford C Bernstein Operational Decisions Broker Conference. Here's our thoughts on both of these recent developments. 

Micron. Leapfrogging Competitors With A Surprise 176-Layer NAND Flash Chip Announcement.

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

2021 Memory Market Hinges on Pandemic Response

Will the semiconductor market collapse in 2021? A lot depends on the impact that COVID-19 has on the global economy. This Insight examines how...

Jim Handy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Contrarian Buys

FOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results & Revision Score (RRS), we can assign...

Campbell Gunn

Kioxia Announcements Enhance Company Value

Kioxia announcements, particularly ethernet native SSDs and KumoScale block, file and object container storage support enhance future value.

Thomas Coughlin

SK Hynix: Big Plans for The Future

SK hynix shared its long-term growth targets, and a little math indicates that the only likely way that this can be achieved is through a lot of...

Jim Handy

Micron. Leapfrogging Competitors With A Surprise 176-Layer NAND Flash Chip Announcement.

Micron made a surprise announcement last week that they were in volume production of an industry-leading, 176 Layer NAND Flash product. What does...

William Keating

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