Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Typical Intel? 18A node was going to be a great success with customers lining up. CFO now says that revenues from external customers is "not significant", limited to packaging only.</li>
<li>Intel CFO toned expectation of significant external 18A revenues by 2027: some revenues with UMC, Tower, some packaging, some older gen Intel16 “not a ton has to come from 18A”.   </li>
<li>Clear admission that Intel Foundry won't be ready for external clients before 14A in 2028 due to lack of design tools (PDK). All that is good for TSMC.</li>
</ul>


Typical Intel? 18A node was going to be a great success with customers lining up. CFO now says that revenues from external customers is "not significant", limited to packaging only.
Intel CFO toned expectation of significant external 18A revenues by 2027: some revenues with UMC, Tower, some packaging, some older gen Intel16 “not a ton has to come from 18A”.   
Clear admission that Intel Foundry won't be ready for external clients before 14A in 2028 due to lack of design tools (PDK). All that is good for TSMC.


Intel 18A: Cracks in the Wall. Good for TSMC.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Intel's first-quarter results for 2025 painted a mixed picture, marked by a modest financial beat but overshadowed by weak forward guidance and deep-rooted structural challenges.</li><li>Under the newly appointed CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who took charge just five weeks ago, the company reported adjusted earnings of $0.13 per share on revenue of $12.7 billion—both surpassing Wall Street expectations.</li><li>Gross margins reached 39.2%, higher than the guided 36%, buoyed by stronger-than-expected sales of Xeon and Raptor Lake chips.</li></ul>

Intel's first-quarter results for 2025 painted a mixed picture, marked by a modest financial beat but overshadowed by weak forward guidance and deep-rooted structural challenges.Under the newly appointed CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who took charge just five weeks ago, the company reported adjusted earnings of $0.13 per share on revenue of $12.7 billion—both surpassing Wall Street expectations.Gross margins reached 39.2%, higher than the guided 36%, buoyed by stronger-than-expected sales of Xeon and Raptor Lake chips.

Intel Slashes Forecasts and Jobs—Is This the Beginning of the End or a Comeback Story?

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>On April 29, Intel hosted the latest in a series of “Direct Connect” events, this time focusing on the company’s Foundry progress and plans</li>
<li>They talked about "ups and downs" with 18A, seeming to lower expectations for the process node which former CEO Gelsinger "bet the company on". Lots of emphasis on 14A instead.  </li>
<li>Foundry chief Naga Chandrasekaran casually announced that the company was "walking away" from Copy Exactly and "democratizing innovation" at the fabs to fix yield, reliability, predictability and cost challenges. Wow!</li>
</ul>


On April 29, Intel hosted the latest in a series of “Direct Connect” events, this time focusing on the company’s Foundry progress and plans
They talked about "ups and downs" with 18A, seeming to lower expectations for the process node which former CEO Gelsinger "bet the company on". Lots of emphasis on 14A instead.  
Foundry chief Naga Chandrasekaran casually announced that the company was "walking away" from Copy Exactly and "democratizing innovation" at the fabs to fix yield, reliability, predictability and cost challenges. Wow!


Intel Foundry. Lowering 18A Expectations, Moving Away From Copy Exactly? What's Going On?

<ul>
<li>Intel reported Q125 revenues of $12.7 billion, down 0.4% YoY, down 11% QoQ but still $500 million above the guided midpoint, precisely the same beat as in the prior quarter.</li>
<li>Looking ahead, Intel forecasted current quarter revenues of $11.8 billion at the midpoint, this time extending the range from $1 billion in the prior quarter to $1.2 billion</li>
<li>LBT is in the process of undertaking sweeping changes to his ELT, flattening its structure, taking on multiple additional reports and showing many senior executives the door. That's good.</li>
</ul>


Intel reported Q125 revenues of $12.7 billion, down 0.4% YoY, down 11% QoQ but still $500 million above the guided midpoint, precisely the same beat as in the prior quarter.
Looking ahead, Intel forecasted current quarter revenues of $11.8 billion at the midpoint, this time extending the range from $1 billion in the prior quarter to $1.2 billion
LBT is in the process of undertaking sweeping changes to his ELT, flattening its structure, taking on multiple additional reports and showing many senior executives the door. That's good.


Intel Q125 Earnings. Outlook Disappoints As LBT Shows Senior Executives The Door

<ul>
<li>1Q better than guided, 2Q a bit better but margins and net income remain very low. Reiteration that 1Q25 is the trough. Mngt mentions concerns about “the macro” and “tariffs”.</li>
<li>CEO emphasizes "it won’t be easy" to fix products, manufacturing, culture. Re-org is coming but no details. Lower Opex but "we have not yet identified what that means for headcount".</li>
<li>Consensus continues to expect a swift runaround into 2026. Based on this optimistic forecast, the stock trades at 18x 2026 EPS. Too many unknowns.</li>
</ul>


1Q better than guided, 2Q a bit better but margins and net income remain very low. Reiteration that 1Q25 is the trough. Mngt mentions concerns about “the macro” and “tariffs”.
CEO emphasizes "it won’t be easy" to fix products, manufacturing, culture. Re-org is coming but no details. Lower Opex but "we have not yet identified what that means for headcount".
Consensus continues to expect a swift runaround into 2026. Based on this optimistic forecast, the stock trades at 18x 2026 EPS. Too many unknowns.


Intel 1Q25: Work in Progress, More Unknowns than Clarity

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Intel 18A: Cracks in the Wall. Good for TSMC.

Intel's 18A node not expected to bring significant external revenues, CFO says limited to packaging only. Foundry won't be ready for external...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel Slashes Forecasts and Jobs—Is This the Beginning of the End or a Comeback Story?

Intel's first-quarter results for 2025 painted a mixed picture, marked by a modest financial beat but overshadowed by weak forward guidance and...

Baptista Research

Intel Foundry. Lowering 18A Expectations, Moving Away From Copy Exactly? What's Going On?

Foundry chief Naga Chandrasekaran casually said Intel was "walking away" from Copy Exactly & "democratizing innovation" at the fabs to fix yield,...

William Keating

Intel Q125 Earnings. Outlook Disappoints As LBT Shows Senior Executives The Door

LBT is in the process of undertaking sweeping changes to his ELT, flattening its structure, taking on multiple additional reports and showing many...

William Keating

Intel 1Q25: Work in Progress, More Unknowns than Clarity

CEO acknowledges challenges ahead in fixing products, manufacturing, and culture. Stock trading at 18x 2026 EPS with uncertainties looming.

Nicolas Baratte

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Intel 18A: Cracks in the Wall. Good for TSMC.

​Intel's 18A node not expected to bring significant external revenues, CFO says limited to packaging only. Foundry won't be ready for external...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel Slashes Forecasts and Jobs—Is This the Beginning of the End or a Comeback Story?

Intel's first-quarter results for 2025 painted a mixed picture, marked by a modest financial beat but overshadowed by weak forward guidance and...

Baptista Research

Intel Foundry. Lowering 18A Expectations, Moving Away From Copy Exactly? What's Going On?

Foundry chief Naga Chandrasekaran casually said Intel was "walking away" from Copy Exactly & "democratizing innovation" at the fabs to fix yield,...

William Keating

Intel Q125 Earnings. Outlook Disappoints As LBT Shows Senior Executives The Door

LBT is in the process of undertaking sweeping changes to his ELT, flattening its structure, taking on multiple additional reports and showing many...

William Keating

Intel 1Q25: Work in Progress, More Unknowns than Clarity

CEO acknowledges challenges ahead in fixing products, manufacturing, and culture. Stock trading at 18x 2026 EPS with uncertainties looming.

Nicolas Baratte

Intel's 18A node not expected to bring significant external revenues, CFO says limited to packaging only. Foundry won't be ready for external...