Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>PC, Smartphone Unit shipments both registering YoY growth in Q124</li>
<li>TSMC will beat guidance &amp; likely guide Q224 up ~5% QoQ. Samsung's pre earnings showed strong recovery in operating profit</li>
<li>Server unit shipments are on a ~17% YoY growth run rate</li>
</ul>


PC, Smartphone Unit shipments both registering YoY growth in Q124
TSMC will beat guidance &amp; likely guide Q224 up ~5% QoQ. Samsung's pre earnings showed strong recovery in operating profit
Server unit shipments are on a ~17% YoY growth run rate


Multiple Positive Catalysts Ahead Of Q124 Earnings Season

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC snags $6.6 billion in US CHIPS Act funding, along with loans up to $5 billion and tax credits up to 25% on eligible capital expenditures</li>
<li>TSMC has committed to building a third fab in Arizona, scheduled to begin operations around 2030</li>
<li>TSMC's reiteration of their world class CAGR, Gross Margin &amp; ROE numbers shines a light on Intel's vastly inferior performance outlook.</li>
</ul>


TSMC snags $6.6 billion in US CHIPS Act funding, along with loans up to $5 billion and tax credits up to 25% on eligible capital expenditures
TSMC has committed to building a third fab in Arizona, scheduled to begin operations around 2030
TSMC's reiteration of their world class CAGR, Gross Margin &amp; ROE numbers shines a light on Intel's vastly inferior performance outlook.


TSMC Snags US CHIPS Act Funding & Ups The Ante On Intel

<ul>
<li>Intel launched a new segment reporting structure under which its newly created Foundry P&amp;L allegedly racked up operating losses of ~$17 billion over the past three years</li>
<li>The Foundry P&amp;L is not expected to reach breakeven until the '27/'28 timeframe</li>
<li>Intel's share price is down &gt;10% in the two days since the new financial model was launched. </li>
</ul>


Intel launched a new segment reporting structure under which its newly created Foundry P&amp;L allegedly racked up operating losses of ~$17 billion over the past three years
The Foundry P&amp;L is not expected to reach breakeven until the '27/'28 timeframe
Intel's share price is down &gt;10% in the two days since the new financial model was launched. 


Intel's New Segment Reporting. Transparency Or Obfuscation?

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>TSMC Q2 2024 outlook is expected to increase by approximately 5% QoQ, with 2024 projected Capex to see a slight uptick. </li>
<li>Intel is expected to adopt <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">TSMC</a> N3B technology in 2Q24F, while we anticipate that MediaTek will transition to N3E by the end of 3Q24F.  </li>
<li>Intel has received financial assistance of US$8 billion through the US Chips and Science Act, and TSMC is also projected to receive around US$5 billion.</li>
</ul>


TSMC Q2 2024 outlook is expected to increase by approximately 5% QoQ, with 2024 projected Capex to see a slight uptick. 
Intel is expected to adopt TSMC N3B technology in 2Q24F, while we anticipate that MediaTek will transition to N3E by the end of 3Q24F.  
Intel has received financial assistance of US$8 billion through the US Chips and Science Act, and TSMC is also projected to receive around US$5 billion.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2Q24F Preview; TSMC Is Anticipated to Receive ~US$5Bn from the US Chip Act.

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul>
<li>This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly.</li>
<li>This is one of the 16th-best quarters in SOXX since 2002. While it’s a pretty solid showing at a 17% quarterly return, this doesn’t compare to the incredible returns in 2020 and 2023.</li>
<li>Now, the misleading thing is that SMH, a broader ETF, is up 30%.</li>
</ul>


This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly.
This is one of the 16th-best quarters in SOXX since 2002. While it’s a pretty solid showing at a 17% quarterly return, this doesn’t compare to the incredible returns in 2020 and 2023.
Now, the misleading thing is that SMH, a broader ETF, is up 30%.


United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Multiple Positive Catalysts Ahead Of Q124 Earnings Season

PC, Smartphone Unit shipments both registering YoY growth in Q124. TSMC will beat guidance. Samsung sees strength in memory, smartphone shipments....

William Keating

TSMC Snags US CHIPS Act Funding & Ups The Ante On Intel

TSMC gets $6.6 billion US CHIPS Act funding & will build a third fab in Arizona, scheduled to open in 2030. They also reminded us of their world...

William Keating

Intel's New Segment Reporting. Transparency Or Obfuscation?

Intel's newly minted Foundry P&L racked up losses of ~$17 billion over the past three years.It's not expected to hit breakeven until '27/'28. Share...

William Keating

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2Q24F Preview; TSMC Is Anticipated to Receive ~US$5Bn from the US Chip Act.

TSMC's Q2 2024 outlook to increase by 5%, Intel to adopt TSMC N3B technology, and both companies to receive financial assistance through US Chips...

Patrick Liao

Fabricated Knowledge Quarterly Review

This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly. This is one of the 16th-best quarters in...

Fabricated Knowledge

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Multiple Positive Catalysts Ahead Of Q124 Earnings Season

PC, Smartphone Unit shipments both registering YoY growth in Q124. TSMC will beat guidance. Samsung sees strength in memory, smartphone shipments....

William Keating

TSMC Snags US CHIPS Act Funding & Ups The Ante On Intel

TSMC gets $6.6 billion US CHIPS Act funding & will build a third fab in Arizona, scheduled to open in 2030. They also reminded us of their world...

William Keating

Intel's New Segment Reporting. Transparency Or Obfuscation?

Intel's newly minted Foundry P&L racked up losses of ~$17 billion over the past three years.It's not expected to hit breakeven until '27/'28. Share...

William Keating

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2Q24F Preview; TSMC Is Anticipated to Receive ~US$5Bn from the US Chip Act.

​TSMC's Q2 2024 outlook to increase by 5%, Intel to adopt TSMC N3B technology, and both companies to receive financial assistance through US Chips...

Patrick Liao

Fabricated Knowledge Quarterly Review

This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly. This is one of the 16th-best quarters in...

Fabricated Knowledge

TSMC's Q2 2024 outlook to increase by 5%, Intel to adopt TSMC N3B technology, and both companies to receive financial assistance through US Chips...