Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

On November 6'th last, at its <a href="https://www.amd.com/en/events/next-horizon" target="_blank">Next Horizon</a> event held in San Francisco, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19009" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1">Advanced Micro Devices</a> revealed further details behind its upcoming, second generation EPCY server processor, code named Rome. The event confirmed many details which had previously been leaked, including a "chiplet" architecture based on a total of eight 7nm processors, each with eight cores (for a total of 64 cores),  surrounding a 14nm I/O controller chip, all connected through a second generation Infinity Fabric and which is socket-compatible with first-generation EPYC server chips. As expected, the 7nm process in question comes from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11230" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1">Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg</a> and, according to the specs revealed during the event, it packs quite a punch compared to TSMC's previous generation 12nm process. The significance of AMD's architectural approach should not be underestimated. In our opinion it represents the only viable mechanism to continue to increase core count for server CPUs and thereby maintain the progression of Moore's Law. For its part, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16764" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1">Intel</a> has reached the end of the line with its monolithic, twenty-eight core server processor design, a fact which would appear to be confirmed by the company's pre-emptive launch two days before AMD's event of a new server processor based on two twenty-four core processors combined in a multi-chip package. In other words, Intel is following in AMD's footsteps. More on this in an upcoming Insight. With Rome, AMD has taken its server CPU architecture to a whole new level, one which sets it up to challenge Intel's server empire, and over the course of the coming two years, potentially to rule it.

On November 6'th last, at its Next Horizon event held in San Francisco, Advanced Micro Devices revealed further details behind its upcoming, second generation EPCY server processor, code named Rome. The event confirmed many details which had previously been leaked, including a "chiplet" architecture based on a total of eight 7nm processors, each with eight cores (for a total of 64 cores),  surrounding a 14nm I/O controller chip, all connected through a second generation Infinity Fabric and which is socket-compatible with first-generation EPYC server chips. As expected, the 7nm process in question comes from Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg and, according to the specs revealed during the event, it packs quite a punch compared to TSMC's previous generation 12nm process. The significance of AMD's architectural approach should not be underestimated. In our opinion it represents the only viable mechanism to continue to increase core count for server CPUs and thereby maintain the progression of Moore's Law. For its part, Intel has reached the end of the line with its monolithic, twenty-eight core server processor design, a fact which would appear to be confirmed by the company's pre-emptive launch two days before AMD's event of a new server processor based on two twenty-four core processors combined in a multi-chip package. In other words, Intel is following in AMD's footsteps. More on this in an upcoming Insight. With Rome, AMD has taken its server CPU architecture to a whole new level, one which sets it up to challenge Intel's server empire, and over the course of the coming two years, potentially to rule it. 

AMD's Rome Will Rule An Empire. A Server Empire.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>
Record 66.2% gross margin beat guidance by 120bps; management raised full-year revenue growth to "above 30%" and capex to high end of $52-56B on insatiable AI demand. </li>
<li>
Supply constraints persist through 2027 as TSMC builds three new N3 fabs globally. AI accelerator revenue CAGR reaffirmed at "higher-50s" through 2029. </li>
<li>
Supply chain scorecard: strongly positive for ASML, SK Hynix,  ASE; mixed for MediaTek and Apple; negative for Intel and Samsung  foundry competitiveness.</li>
</ul>



Record 66.2% gross margin beat guidance by 120bps; management raised full-year revenue growth to "above 30%" and capex to high end of $52-56B on insatiable AI demand. 

Supply constraints persist through 2027 as TSMC builds three new N3 fabs globally. AI accelerator revenue CAGR reaffirmed at "higher-50s" through 2029. 

Supply chain scorecard: strongly positive for ASML, SK Hynix,  ASE; mixed for MediaTek and Apple; negative for Intel and Samsung  foundry competitiveness.


TSMC 1Q26: 66% Gross Margin Beat — What It Means for ASML, NVIDIA, MediaTek & 7 More

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Last week <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> announced a 5 billion USD investment into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>. </li>
<li>If the collaboration between the two tech giants is successful, it could lead to a revival of the entire Intel supply chain.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> has historically been closely linked to Intel, so any revival of Intel has the potential to benefit AEM substantially.</li>
</ul>


Last week NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) announced a 5 billion USD investment into Intel Corp (INTC US). 
If the collaboration between the two tech giants is successful, it could lead to a revival of the entire Intel supply chain.

AEM (AEM SP) has historically been closely linked to Intel, so any revival of Intel has the potential to benefit AEM substantially.


AEM Holdings: Nvidia's Investment in Intel to Drive AEM Re-Rating?

<ul>
<li>A major Intel balance sheet boost, backed by SoftBank, the U.S. government, and leading institutions, would enhance the company’s capacity to make bold bets on regaining global chip manufacturing leadership.</li>
<li>UMC's market valuation is less than the capex for just one advanced fab. Intel would likely make a gain on its investment since it would cause UMC shares to rally.</li>
<li>For less than the cost of a single advanced fab, a large company could acquire UMC and gain chipmaking expertise approaching TSMC’s level; boosting returns across an entire fab network.</li>
</ul>


A major Intel balance sheet boost, backed by SoftBank, the U.S. government, and leading institutions, would enhance the company’s capacity to make bold bets on regaining global chip manufacturing leadership.
UMC's market valuation is less than the capex for just one advanced fab. Intel would likely make a gain on its investment since it would cause UMC shares to rally.
For less than the cost of a single advanced fab, a large company could acquire UMC and gain chipmaking expertise approaching TSMC’s level; boosting returns across an entire fab network.


A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan's UMC

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>ASML has been underperforming for 18 months. Recent downgrades are a delayed recognition of reality. ASML’s management goals for 2030 (10% revenue growth Cagr) are ok (plausible) </li>
<li>But growth is slowing fast in 2H25-1H26. Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impact of China and  Mature node lower spending, multiple delays (Intel, Samsung) is fading away. </li>
<li>The stock is getting cheaper, but lacks catalysts for another 2-3 quarters. Trading at 25x forward PEx, that’s reasonable given the firm’s intrinsic qualities.</li>
</ul>


ASML has been underperforming for 18 months. Recent downgrades are a delayed recognition of reality. ASML’s management goals for 2030 (10% revenue growth Cagr) are ok (plausible) 
But growth is slowing fast in 2H25-1H26. Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impact of China and  Mature node lower spending, multiple delays (Intel, Samsung) is fading away. 
The stock is getting cheaper, but lacks catalysts for another 2-3 quarters. Trading at 25x forward PEx, that’s reasonable given the firm’s intrinsic qualities.


ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

AMD's Rome Will Rule An Empire. A Server Empire.

it's hard to believe that it's been almost eight years since I wrote this piece! On a day like today, with AMD's latest report fresh off the...

William Keating

TSMC 1Q26: 66% Gross Margin Beat — What It Means for ASML, NVIDIA, MediaTek & 7 More

Record gross margin beat and raised revenue guidance due to AI demand; supply constraints persist through 2027 with TSMC building new fabs; supply...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

AEM Holdings: Nvidia's Investment in Intel to Drive AEM Re-Rating?

NVIDIA's $5 billion investment in Intel could revive Intel's supply chain, benefiting companies like AEM linked to Intel.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan's UMC

Intel's balance sheet improvement is a major opportunity -- Intel should invest in UMC to create a win-win combination that can rival TSMC...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nicolas Baratte

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AMD's Rome Will Rule An Empire. A Server Empire.

it's hard to believe that it's been almost eight years since I wrote this piece! On a day like today, with AMD's latest report fresh off the...

William Keating

TSMC 1Q26: 66% Gross Margin Beat — What It Means for ASML, NVIDIA, MediaTek & 7 More

​Record gross margin beat and raised revenue guidance due to AI demand; supply constraints persist through 2027 with TSMC building new fabs; supply...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

AEM Holdings: Nvidia's Investment in Intel to Drive AEM Re-Rating?

​NVIDIA's $5 billion investment in Intel could revive Intel's supply chain, benefiting companies like AEM linked to Intel.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan's UMC

​Intel's balance sheet improvement is a major opportunity -- Intel should invest in UMC to create a win-win combination that can rival TSMC...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

​ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nicolas Baratte

Record gross margin beat and raised revenue guidance due to AI demand; supply constraints persist through 2027 with TSMC building new fabs; supply...

NVIDIA's $5 billion investment in Intel could revive Intel's supply chain, benefiting companies like AEM linked to Intel.

Intel's balance sheet improvement is a major opportunity -- Intel should invest in UMC to create a win-win combination that can rival TSMC...

ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....