Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The “Big” rally has now faded less than a week from its start. While many point to a robust economy, strong GDP, and a strengthening U.S. dollar as the bellwether of global currencies, something seems amiss. Higher interest rates have doused the market’s advance, with 10-year yields double what they once were just three years ago. Investors are being jostled about as a determination is made as to whether the Fed has gone too far and too fast. Our concern here is that the Fed is creating a conundrum, indicating that higher rates are still forthcoming despite what we, and the market, are viewing as the possible end of the bull market...In our November Strategy publication, we outline a host of indicators we are watching for signs of the market's health.  In addition we highlight a number of actionable setups within Health care, Consumer Staples and Technology.

The “Big” rally has now faded less than a week from its start. While many point to a robust economy, strong GDP, and a strengthening U.S. dollar as the bellwether of global currencies, something seems amiss. Higher interest rates have doused the market’s advance, with 10-year yields double what they once were just three years ago. Investors are being jostled about as a determination is made as to whether the Fed has gone too far and too fast. Our concern here is that the Fed is creating a conundrum, indicating that higher rates are still forthcoming despite what we, and the market, are viewing as the possible end of the bull market...In our November Strategy publication, we outline a host of indicators we are watching for signs of the market's health.  In addition we highlight a number of actionable setups within Health care, Consumer Staples and Technology.

U.S. Equity Strategy & Sector Commentaries: Defensive Sectors Leading = Unhealthy Market

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Given that leading luxury groups are inclined to abandon agency and "get involved directly" in the beauty/fragrance category, such trend implies the risk of losing key suppliers in the future</li>
<li>Although there're "reusable aspects" in management, expenses spent on brand channel are big, which makes it impossible for profits to benefit from "scale effect".So, low profit margin is the norm.</li>
<li>Considering the risk of economic recession/sluggish consumption, Eternal Beauty's net profit may experience negative growth in FY2025. It would gradually recover in FY2026-2027. Valuation could be lower than peers.</li>
</ul>


Given that leading luxury groups are inclined to abandon agency and "get involved directly" in the beauty/fragrance category, such trend implies the risk of losing key suppliers in the future
Although there're "reusable aspects" in management, expenses spent on brand channel are big, which makes it impossible for profits to benefit from "scale effect".So, low profit margin is the norm.
Considering the risk of economic recession/sluggish consumption, Eternal Beauty's net profit may experience negative growth in FY2025. It would gradually recover in FY2026-2027. Valuation could be lower than peers.


Pre-IPO Eternal Beauty Holdings (PHIP Updates) - The Outlook Has Changed

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Interparfums reported a 5% increase in net sales for the first quarter of 2025, with a 7% growth on a like-for-like basis.</li><li>These results were driven by strong performances from brands such as Coach, Jimmy Choo, and Donna Karan, as well as newer entries like Lacoste and Cavalli.</li><li>The company's diverse product launches and agile supply chain supported its ability to adapt rapidly to market demands, although some challenges remain due to a shifting global landscape.</li></ul>

Interparfums reported a 5% increase in net sales for the first quarter of 2025, with a 7% growth on a like-for-like basis.These results were driven by strong performances from brands such as Coach, Jimmy Choo, and Donna Karan, as well as newer entries like Lacoste and Cavalli.The company's diverse product launches and agile supply chain supported its ability to adapt rapidly to market demands, although some challenges remain due to a shifting global landscape.

Interparfums Unveils Bold Luxury Push with New Premium Brand Additions!

<ul><li>Interparfums Inc.'s third quarter financial results for 2024 highlight several key aspects of their performance, including strengths and challenges in a fluctuating global market.</li><li>On the positive side, the company reported its best third quarter in history, driven by robust sales across all major markets.</li><li>North America, Western Europe, and Asia Pacific all saw double-digit sales growth, with North America up 12%, Western Europe 25%, and Asia Pacific 15%.</li></ul>

Interparfums Inc.'s third quarter financial results for 2024 highlight several key aspects of their performance, including strengths and challenges in a fluctuating global market.On the positive side, the company reported its best third quarter in history, driven by robust sales across all major markets.North America, Western Europe, and Asia Pacific all saw double-digit sales growth, with North America up 12%, Western Europe 25%, and Asia Pacific 15%.

Inter Parfums Inc.: Expanding Brand Portfolio with New Launches To Change The Game! - Major Drivers

Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

BWS provides independent stock specific research focused on companies with distinct value that are going through a special situation where there is a tangible catalyst not priced in. The catalyst can be anything from new product, restructuring, M&A, management change, change in business strategy, etc. BWS’s focus is to understand the change and evaluate the potential return for investors.

BWS utilizes a self formed proprietary approach in discovering stocks by putting great emphasis on deep research. BWS does generate short recommendations following a similar criteria.

<ul>
<li>IPAR reported third quarter results after having previously released preliminary sales figures. Demand for gift sets exceeded expectations in the quarter, leading to sellouts at many retailers.  </li>
<li>The strength in the quarter comes when IPAR is setting its release schedule for 2025. We are expecting momentum in IPAR’s top brands to continue. </li>
<li>The quarterly results highlighted the strength of the different brands leading to sales growth. IPAR has released a series of fragrances this year that have contributed to higher sales. </li>
</ul>


IPAR reported third quarter results after having previously released preliminary sales figures. Demand for gift sets exceeded expectations in the quarter, leading to sellouts at many retailers.  
The strength in the quarter comes when IPAR is setting its release schedule for 2025. We are expecting momentum in IPAR’s top brands to continue. 
The quarterly results highlighted the strength of the different brands leading to sales growth. IPAR has released a series of fragrances this year that have contributed to higher sales. 


IPAR: Free Cash Flow from Moderating Growth

United States

Inter Parfums, Inc. manufactures, markets, and distributes a wide array of fragrances and fragrance related products. The Company's European-based operations produce and distribute prestige fragrance products primarily under license with brand owners. It's U.S.-based operations primarily produce and sell fragrance and personal care products under several specialty retail brands.

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Inter Parfums (IPAR US)

U.S. Equity Strategy & Sector Commentaries: Defensive Sectors Leading = Unhealthy Market

The “Big” rally has now faded less than a week from its start. While many point to a robust economy, strong GDP, and a strengthening U.S. dollar as...

Vermilion Research

Pre-IPO Eternal Beauty Holdings (PHIP Updates) - The Outlook Has Changed

Luxury groups' direct involvement in beauty/fragrance management is the trend, leading to the loss of suppliers of Eternal Beauty.Low profit...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Interparfums Unveils Bold Luxury Push with New Premium Brand Additions!

Interparfums reported a 5% increase in net sales for the first quarter of 2025, with a 7% growth on a like-for-like basis. These results were...

Baptista Research

Inter Parfums Inc.: Expanding Brand Portfolio with New Launches To Change The Game! - Major Drivers

Interparfums Inc.'s third quarter financial results for 2024 highlight several key aspects of their performance, including strengths and...

Baptista Research

IPAR: Free Cash Flow from Moderating Growth

IPAR has continued to grow sales, but suggestions of the market moderating lead us to cool our expectations for 2025. IPAR is planning for a new...

BWS Financial Inc

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

U.S. Equity Strategy & Sector Commentaries: Defensive Sectors Leading = Unhealthy Market

The “Big” rally has now faded less than a week from its start. While many point to a robust economy, strong GDP, and a strengthening U.S. dollar as...

Vermilion Research

Pre-IPO Eternal Beauty Holdings (PHIP Updates) - The Outlook Has Changed

​Luxury groups' direct involvement in beauty/fragrance management is the trend, leading to the loss of suppliers of Eternal Beauty.Low profit...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Interparfums Unveils Bold Luxury Push with New Premium Brand Additions!

Interparfums reported a 5% increase in net sales for the first quarter of 2025, with a 7% growth on a like-for-like basis. These results were...

Baptista Research

Inter Parfums Inc.: Expanding Brand Portfolio with New Launches To Change The Game! - Major Drivers

Interparfums Inc.'s third quarter financial results for 2024 highlight several key aspects of their performance, including strengths and...

Baptista Research

IPAR: Free Cash Flow from Moderating Growth

IPAR has continued to grow sales, but suggestions of the market moderating lead us to cool our expectations for 2025. IPAR is planning for a new...

BWS Financial Inc

Luxury groups' direct involvement in beauty/fragrance management is the trend, leading to the loss of suppliers of Eternal Beauty.Low profit...