Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.</li>
<li>Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.</li>
<li>As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.
Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.
As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.


SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our core pick is flow monster CME Group for its dominant franchise through its trading and post-trading (including clearing) operations in interest rates, equity indices, foreign exchange and commodity derivatives</li>
<li>We also like Deutsche Borse as the European flow monster and for its attractive valuations and gearing into greater European securities activity</li>
<li>We downgrade Japan Exchange to a neutral from buy for its fair valuations, as we see more compelling opportunities with CME group and Deutsche Borse; CBOE is one to watch</li>
</ul>


Our core pick is flow monster CME Group for its dominant franchise through its trading and post-trading (including clearing) operations in interest rates, equity indices, foreign exchange and commodity derivatives
We also like Deutsche Borse as the European flow monster and for its attractive valuations and gearing into greater European securities activity
We downgrade Japan Exchange to a neutral from buy for its fair valuations, as we see more compelling opportunities with CME group and Deutsche Borse; CBOE is one to watch


Developed Market Exchanges – Integrated Flow Monsters and Big Data Monetisers

<ul>
<li>Exchanges, especially in developed markets, continue to seek revenue streams outside of the traditional trading and transaction-based fees which has led to a mini-boom in exchange-driven M&amp;A targeting diversification</li>
<li>We use data and IT revenues as a proxy for “stickier” potentially recurring revenues in four DM and three EM exchanges, concluding that DM exchanges are under more diversification pressure</li>
<li>We identify three buy opportunities in exchanges; we like Hong Kong Exchange, Deutsche Borse and we add Nasdaq, whilst we are negative on Coinbase which remains the exchange to avoid</li>
</ul>


Exchanges, especially in developed markets, continue to seek revenue streams outside of the traditional trading and transaction-based fees which has led to a mini-boom in exchange-driven M&amp;A targeting diversification
We use data and IT revenues as a proxy for “stickier” potentially recurring revenues in four DM and three EM exchanges, concluding that DM exchanges are under more diversification pressure
We identify three buy opportunities in exchanges; we like Hong Kong Exchange, Deutsche Borse and we add Nasdaq, whilst we are negative on Coinbase which remains the exchange to avoid


Global Exchanges – Pace of Revenue Diversification Differs Between DM and EM Exchanges

<ul>
<li>We stick with our core theme for exchanges of growing post-trading revenues, as well as capitalising on “big data” in financial transactions and data services, as we head into 2023</li>
<li>We identify four relative value opportunities in exchanges; HKEx, LSEG, MexBolsa and Deutsche Borse feature positively multiple times in our value screens and they are all diversifying revenue streams</li>
<li>We stick with Coinbase as the exchange to avoid, in our view; its revenue streams are heavily exposed to low volumes of crypto transactions, and recent events highlight counterparty risk</li>
</ul>


We stick with our core theme for exchanges of growing post-trading revenues, as well as capitalising on “big data” in financial transactions and data services, as we head into 2023
We identify four relative value opportunities in exchanges; HKEx, LSEG, MexBolsa and Deutsche Borse feature positively multiple times in our value screens and they are all diversifying revenue streams
We stick with Coinbase as the exchange to avoid, in our view; its revenue streams are heavily exposed to low volumes of crypto transactions, and recent events highlight counterparty risk


Global Exchanges – Conviction Picks for 2023

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<ul>
<li>Last week, SGX and the New York Stock Exchange announced a collaboration focusing on dual listings and new products (primarily ETFs)... and all with an overarching ESG imperative.</li>
<li>Typically, these kinds of announcements are met with a healthy dash of skepticism by investors but the SGX/NYSE agreement is a clear exception, deserving atypical early-stage optimism.</li>
<li>Complementary skill sets (Right Partners), once-in-lifetime market opportunities (Right Place), and leveraging <em>existing</em> cabilities to meet <em>current</em> ESG investing demand (Right Products).</li>
</ul>


Last week, SGX and the New York Stock Exchange announced a collaboration focusing on dual listings and new products (primarily ETFs)... and all with an overarching ESG imperative.
Typically, these kinds of announcements are met with a healthy dash of skepticism by investors but the SGX/NYSE agreement is a clear exception, deserving atypical early-stage optimism.
Complementary skill sets (Right Partners), once-in-lifetime market opportunities (Right Place), and leveraging existing cabilities to meet current ESG investing demand (Right Products).


SGX/NYSE Collaboration Agreement: Right Partners, Right Place, Right Products

United States

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. operates global commodity and financial products marketplaces.  The Company operates electronic energy markets and soft commodity exchanges as well.  ICE offers access to contracts based on crude oil and refined products, natural gas, power and emissions, as well as agricultural commodities including cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, and sugar.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE US)

SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

$SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track if Below 5783. Still Neutral, prefer to sell...

Vermilion Research

Developed Market Exchanges – Integrated Flow Monsters and Big Data Monetisers

CME Group is our top pick for its dominant market position in key US derivatives, Deutsche Borse is also on the buy list. We downgrade Japan...

Victor Galliano

Global Exchanges – Pace of Revenue Diversification Differs Between DM and EM Exchanges

We select, as our buys, Nasdaq for its focused diversification strategy, Deutsche Boerse for its relative value versus peers and HKEX for its GARP...

Victor Galliano

Global Exchanges – Conviction Picks for 2023

Our 2023 picks of HKEx, LSEG, MexBolsa and Deutsche Borse feature positively multiple times in our value screens and they are all diversifying...

Victor Galliano

SGX/NYSE Collaboration Agreement: Right Partners, Right Place, Right Products

SGX and NYSE recently announced a collaboration agreement that warrants early optimism. Right partners (complementary skills), right place (market...

Kyle Rudden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

$SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track if Below 5783. Still Neutral, prefer to sell...

Vermilion Research

Developed Market Exchanges – Integrated Flow Monsters and Big Data Monetisers

​CME Group is our top pick for its dominant market position in key US derivatives, Deutsche Borse is also on the buy list. We downgrade Japan...

Victor Galliano

Global Exchanges – Pace of Revenue Diversification Differs Between DM and EM Exchanges

We select, as our buys, Nasdaq for its focused diversification strategy, Deutsche Boerse for its relative value versus peers and HKEX for its GARP...

Victor Galliano

Global Exchanges – Conviction Picks for 2023

Our 2023 picks of HKEx, LSEG, MexBolsa and Deutsche Borse feature positively multiple times in our value screens and they are all diversifying...

Victor Galliano

SGX/NYSE Collaboration Agreement: Right Partners, Right Place, Right Products

SGX and NYSE recently announced a collaboration agreement that warrants early optimism. Right partners (complementary skills), right place (market...

Kyle Rudden

CME Group is our top pick for its dominant market position in key US derivatives, Deutsche Borse is also on the buy list. We downgrade Japan...