Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following their inclusion in the F&amp;O segment in November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN)</a> appear to be sure-shot inclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> in March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-petroleum-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10222:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN)</a> is a certain deletion from the index. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries</a>' average free-float market cap is less than 0.004% below <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp</a>'s. It's very close.</li>
<li>Passive trackers need to trade between 3.7-11.8 days of ADV on the stocks. The impact increases significantly to between 8.4-21.8 days of delivery volume to trade on the stocks.</li>
</ul>


Following their inclusion in the F&amp;O segment in November, Zomato (ZOMATO IN) and Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) appear to be sure-shot inclusions to the NIFTY Index in March.

Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN) is a certain deletion from the index. Britannia Industries' average free-float market cap is less than 0.004% below Hero Motocorp's. It's very close.
Passive trackers need to trade between 3.7-11.8 days of ADV on the stocks. The impact increases significantly to between 8.4-21.8 days of delivery volume to trade on the stocks.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Secure; Tight Among the Deletes

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>INDIGO reported flat YoY EBITDA at INR51.6b and PAT of INR24.4b (est. INR36.9b) in 3QFY25. Excl. forex loss/gain, EBITDA was 5% above our estimate.</li><li>Revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) stood at 35.5b. Passenger load factor (PLF) was 87%, with available seat kilometers (ASK) of 40.8b (est. 40.9b) and yield of INR5.43 (est. INR5.37, down 1% YoY) in 3Q.</li><li>Management highlighted that the quarter saw robust air travel by customers thanks to the festive season, year-end holidays and a general rise in consumer demand. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

INDIGO reported flat YoY EBITDA at INR51.6b and PAT of INR24.4b (est. INR36.9b) in 3QFY25. Excl. forex loss/gain, EBITDA was 5% above our estimate.Revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) stood at 35.5b. Passenger load factor (PLF) was 87%, with available seat kilometers (ASK) of 40.8b (est. 40.9b) and yield of INR5.43 (est. INR5.37, down 1% YoY) in 3Q.Management highlighted that the quarter saw robust air travel by customers thanks to the festive season, year-end holidays and a general rise in consumer demand. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

InterGlobe Aviation - Strong Quarter Led by Robust Air Travel Demand

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay

Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. is a leader in the financial services sector, actively creating wealth for our clients for over two decades. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Indigo posted robust results in Q3FY25, with SA EBITDA of Rs66.2bn – a 15% beat.</li><li>This was driven by a 3% beat each on RASK/yields, while fuel cost and rentals were also lower.</li><li>CASK ex-fuel and forex (Fx) was only 1% above our estimate, though net Fx loss was high at Rs14bn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indigo posted robust results in Q3FY25, with SA EBITDA of Rs66.2bn – a 15% beat.This was driven by a 3% beat each on RASK/yields, while fuel cost and rentals were also lower.CASK ex-fuel and forex (Fx) was only 1% above our estimate, though net Fx loss was high at Rs14bn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

InterGlobe Aviation - Strong Quarter with Beat on Yields

<ul>
<li>Following the introduction of 45 stocks in the F&amp;O segment from 29 November, there will be big capping changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> in December.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 21.9% leading to a one-way trade of INR 75bn (US$881m). There are 25 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>There could be changes to the index methodology announced in the next few months and that could result in the deletion of a couple of constituents in March.</li>
</ul>


Following the introduction of 45 stocks in the F&amp;O segment from 29 November, there will be big capping changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in December.
We estimate one-way turnover of 21.9% leading to a one-way trade of INR 75bn (US$881m). There are 25 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
There could be changes to the index methodology announced in the next few months and that could result in the deletion of a couple of constituents in March.


Nifty Next50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Capping Flows in December; Methodology Change Coming?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Government of India raised around US$513m via selling some of its stake in Bharti Hexacom’s IPO in Apr 2024. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Bharti Hexacom (BH) is a communications solutions provider offering consumer mobile services, fixed-line telephone and broadband services to customers in the Rajasthan and the Northeast.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>


Government of India raised around US$513m via selling some of its stake in Bharti Hexacom’s IPO in Apr 2024. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon.
Bharti Hexacom (BH) is a communications solutions provider offering consumer mobile services, fixed-line telephone and broadband services to customers in the Rajasthan and the Northeast.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Bharti Hexacom IPO Lockup - US$1.2bn Lockup Expiry, Will Have to Sell for Free-Float

India

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. operates IndiGo, India's largest passenger airline by domestic market share, focusing on low fares, punctuality, and a hassle-free travel experience. The company provides air transportation services for passengers and cargo on scheduled flights, along with ancillary services like car rental, airport lounge access, and travel insurance. IndiGo is headquartered in Gurugram, Haryana, India, and was founded in 2004.

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IndiGo (INDIGO IN)

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Secure; Tight Among the Deletes

Zomato and JioFin should replace BPCL and Britannia in March. Hero Motors just avoids deletion for now. Passives need to trade 3.7-11.8x ADV (8.4...

Brian Freitas

InterGlobe Aviation - Strong Quarter Led by Robust Air Travel Demand

INDIGO reported flat YoY EBITDA at INR51.6b and PAT of INR24.4b (est. INR36.9b) in 3QFY25. Excl. forex loss/gain, EBITDA was 5% above our estimate.

Motilal Oswal

InterGlobe Aviation - Strong Quarter with Beat on Yields

Indigo posted robust results in Q3FY25, with SA EBITDA of Rs66.2bn – a 15% beat.This was driven by a 3% beat each on RASK/yields, while fuel cost...

Emkay

Nifty Next50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Capping Flows in December; Methodology Change Coming?

The introduction of new F&O contracts will result in an estimated 21.9% turnover and a one-way trade of INR 75bn (US$881m) for the Nifty Next50...

Brian Freitas

Bharti Hexacom IPO Lockup - US$1.2bn Lockup Expiry, Will Have to Sell for Free-Float

Government of India raised around US$513m via selling some of its stake in Bharti Hexacom’s IPO in Apr 2024. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

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