Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Major breakouts for UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities are likely to outperform in the months/years ahead.</li>
<li>We continue to recommend adding exposure to China/Hong Kong, and to add exposure/remain overweight Europe and the UK; these remain our favorite areas to invest in the year ahead.</li>
<li>The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China make up the majority of today's individual stock buy recommendations. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary Sectors are all bullish and highlighted today -- add exposure.</li>
</ul>


Major breakouts for UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities are likely to outperform in the months/years ahead.
We continue to recommend adding exposure to China/Hong Kong, and to add exposure/remain overweight Europe and the UK; these remain our favorite areas to invest in the year ahead.
The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China make up the majority of today's individual stock buy recommendations. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary Sectors are all bullish and highlighted today -- add exposure.


UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50 Breaking Out; Non-U.S. Outperformance to Continue, Buys in Cyclicals

<p>Our bullish outlook remains intact and is supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) and ongoing positive market dynamics. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months.</p>

Our bullish outlook remains intact and is supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) and ongoing positive market dynamics. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months.

Global Equity Strategy: Stick With Reflation & Reopening Theme

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Russia: Recent study estimates that unreported activity accounts for about 20% of GDP. Moscow could use this lost tax revenue.</li>
<li>Singapore: MAS qtrly survey of professional forecasters estimates 2019 GDP growth at 2.5% for this year, down from median estimate of 2.7% in the September survey.</li>
<li>South Africa: Morgan Stanley is calling for outperformance by South African economy and stocks in the coming months.  Focus on Healthcare and Retail Names)</li>
<li>India: Modi’s government is accused of politicizing economic data government in a growing debate over the credibility of India’s official growth estimates.</li>
</ul>


Russia: Recent study estimates that unreported activity accounts for about 20% of GDP. Moscow could use this lost tax revenue.
Singapore: MAS qtrly survey of professional forecasters estimates 2019 GDP growth at 2.5% for this year, down from median estimate of 2.7% in the September survey.
South Africa: Morgan Stanley is calling for outperformance by South African economy and stocks in the coming months.  Focus on Healthcare and Retail Names)
India: Modi’s government is accused of politicizing economic data government in a growing debate over the credibility of India’s official growth estimates.


RRG Weekly - Is Modi Government Cooking the Books? Brexit Risks Rise. South Africa Could Surprise

<ul>
<li>The risk of Britain crashing out of the European Union (EU) is very real and not currently priced in to markets.</li>
<li>The idea that the world’s fifth largest economy will abruptly crash out of the world’s largest economy (the EU bloc is larger than the US) and not roil markets is naive.</li>
<li>UK/EU trading relationship is very significant with 44% of UK exports and 53% of UK imports going to/coming form EU.</li>
<li>The market needs to consider the impact of three possible outcomes: Negotiated Departure Approved by UK Parliament, Crash Out with No Deal, Delay.</li>
<li>We believe that any three of these outcomes are a negative for markets with the worst-case being a no-deal crash out.</li>
<li>Specific names to avoid include: International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (IAG), Easyjet (EZJ), Thomas Cook (TCG), Xpo Logistics Europe SA (XPOP) and H &amp; M Hennes &amp; Mauritz AB (HM-B).</li>
</ul>


The risk of Britain crashing out of the European Union (EU) is very real and not currently priced in to markets.
The idea that the world’s fifth largest economy will abruptly crash out of the world’s largest economy (the EU bloc is larger than the US) and not roil markets is naive.
UK/EU trading relationship is very significant with 44% of UK exports and 53% of UK imports going to/coming form EU.
The market needs to consider the impact of three possible outcomes: Negotiated Departure Approved by UK Parliament, Crash Out with No Deal, Delay.
We believe that any three of these outcomes are a negative for markets with the worst-case being a no-deal crash out.
Specific names to avoid include: International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (IAG), Easyjet (EZJ), Thomas Cook (TCG), Xpo Logistics Europe SA (XPOP) and H &amp; M Hennes &amp; Mauritz AB (HM-B).


BREXIT Risk Not Priced In - Watch for Volatility and Weakness - Look to SARS 2003 for Parallels

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely. </p>

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely. 

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

United Kingdom

International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. (IAG) is a British-Spanish multinational airline holding company. It provides passenger and cargo air transportation services, operating major airline brands such as British Airways, Iberia, Aer Lingus, Vueling, and LEVEL. The company was formed in January 2011 and has its corporate headquarters in London, UK, with its registered office in Madrid, Spain.

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International Airlines Group (IAG LN)

UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50 Breaking Out; Non-U.S. Outperformance to Continue, Buys in Cyclicals

Recent major breakouts for the FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Stick With Reflation & Reopening Theme

Our bullish outlook remains intact supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes. Until this changes, we believe global...

Vermilion Research

RRG Weekly - Is Modi Government Cooking the Books? Brexit Risks Rise. South Africa Could Surprise

Russia: Recent study estimates that unreported activity accounts for about 20% of GDP. Moscow could use this lost tax revenue. Singapore: MAS...

David Riedel

BREXIT Risk Not Priced In - Watch for Volatility and Weakness - Look to SARS 2003 for Parallels

The risk of Britain crashing out of the European Union (EU) is very real and not currently priced in to markets. The idea that the world’s fifth...

David Riedel

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major...

Vermilion Research

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