Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>With RS uptrends intact we continue to recommend Sector overweights to MSCI EM Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, and Communications. Materials remains an attractive cyclical value Sector as both price and RS show signs of bottoming -- add exposure. In this report we offer a number of attractive set ups with the EM universe across sectors.  </p>

With RS uptrends intact we continue to recommend Sector overweights to MSCI EM Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, and Communications. Materials remains an attractive cyclical value Sector as both price and RS show signs of bottoming -- add exposure. In this report we offer a number of attractive set ups with the EM universe across sectors.  

Global Equity Chart Book: Stick With EM Over EAFE

<p>We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the cards. This expectation is supported by price action during prior major waterfall declines in past recessionary periods. With the global economy likely headed for a recession (or worse) we believe it is important to stay with the Sectors that have been outperforming amid the COVID-19 pandemic as we believe they are likely to continue outperforming. That means we are sticking primarily with Staples, Health Care, and Technology. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.</p>

We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the cards. This expectation is supported by price action during prior major waterfall declines in past recessionary periods. With the global economy likely headed for a recession (or worse) we believe it is important to stay with the Sectors that have been outperforming amid the COVID-19 pandemic as we believe they are likely to continue outperforming. That means we are sticking primarily with Staples, Health Care, and Technology. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.

Global Equities (ACWI-US) Likely to Retest the March Low

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 18 adds and 18 deletes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in June. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF has an AUM of US$16.9bn.</li>
<li>The ETF has started trading the stocks and is expected to continue trading for the next 7 trading days.</li>
<li>The adds are outperforming the deletes today and that trend could continue for the next few days as the ETF trades the stocks.</li>
</ul>


There are 18 adds and 18 deletes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in June. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF has an AUM of US$16.9bn.
The ETF has started trading the stocks and is expected to continue trading for the next 7 trading days.
The adds are outperforming the deletes today and that trend could continue for the next few days as the ETF trades the stocks.


TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$13.6bn Trade over the Next Week

Event-Driven

International Games System / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/international-games-system-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3486:1" rel="noopener">International Games System (3293 TT)</a> could be added to a global index at the end of November and there will be a lot of buying in the stock.</li>
<li>The big rally in the stock has led to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/international-games-system-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3486:1" rel="noopener">International Games System (3293 TT)</a> trading expensive to its regional peers.</li>
<li>There has been an increase in cumulative excess volume over the last month. But there could still be more to go over the next week.</li>
</ul>



International Games System (3293 TT) could be added to a global index at the end of November and there will be a lot of buying in the stock.
The big rally in the stock has led to International Games System (3293 TT) trading expensive to its regional peers.
There has been an increase in cumulative excess volume over the last month. But there could still be more to go over the next week.


International Games System (3293 TT): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 13 changes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in June. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) has an AUM of US$6.4bn.</li>
<li>One-Way turnover is estimated at 41% and that will result in a round-trip trade of TWD 168.8bn (US$5.2bn). There are 16 stocks that could have over 4x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The rebalance will be implemented over 8 trading days and the ETF has started trading the stocks last week.</li>
</ul>


There are 13 changes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in June. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) has an AUM of US$6.4bn.
One-Way turnover is estimated at 41% and that will result in a round-trip trade of TWD 168.8bn (US$5.2bn). There are 16 stocks that could have over 4x ADV to trade.
The rebalance will be implemented over 8 trading days and the ETF has started trading the stocks last week.


TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: 13 Changes & US$5.2bn Round-Trip Trade

Taiwan

International Games System Co., Ltd. plans, designs, develops, manufactures, and markets software and hardware for arcade games, PC games, and Internet on-line games.

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International Games System (3293 TT)

Global Equity Chart Book: Stick With EM Over EAFE

With RS uptrends intact we continue to recommend Sector overweights to MSCI EM Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, and Communications....

Vermilion Research

Global Equities (ACWI-US) Likely to Retest the March Low

We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the...

Vermilion Research

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$13.6bn Trade over the Next Week

There are 18 adds and 18 deletes for the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 40.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$13.6bn. Adds are...

Brian Freitas