Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shin Kong Financial Holding / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of August 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$56bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in August was ~47%. The average premium YTD is ~44%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of August 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$56bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in August was ~47%. The average premium YTD is ~44%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Aug 2024: Orora, Fuji Soft, J Tower, Seven & I, Taishin/Shin Kong, PropertyGuru

<ul>
<li>CTBC's (likely) goal is to boost <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong (2888 TT)</a>'s shares, so as to make the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taishin-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:715:1" rel="noopener">Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)</a> merger unpalatable for Shin Kong shareholders. That smells of opportunity.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> is trading cheap to NAV and its implied stub. It may well get cheaper.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>'s resulting supply/demand profile is mixed, but on balance, expect to see positive demand into the H1 earnings announcement. Watch for another buyback possibly announced then.</li>
</ul>


CTBC's (likely) goal is to boost Shin Kong (2888 TT)'s shares, so as to make the Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) merger unpalatable for Shin Kong shareholders. That smells of opportunity.

Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) is trading cheap to NAV and its implied stub. It may well get cheaper.

Toyota Motor (7203 JP)'s resulting supply/demand profile is mixed, but on balance, expect to see positive demand into the H1 earnings announcement. Watch for another buyback possibly announced then.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Shin Kong/Taishin Financial, Jardine Matheson, Toyota Motors, Huafa Props

<ul>
<li>I tally 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal. </li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed this week: the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taishin-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:715:1" rel="noopener">Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT)</a> merger; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silverlake-axis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14150:1" rel="noopener">Silverlake Axis (SILV SP)</a>'s hybrid Offer. </li>
<li>Key updates took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huafa-property-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5841:1" rel="noopener">Huafa Property Services (982 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius (2696 HK)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric (6967 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arvida-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14485:1" rel="noopener">Arvida (ARV NZ)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal. 
Two new deals were discussed this week: the Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) / Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) merger; and Silverlake Axis (SILV SP)'s hybrid Offer. 
Key updates took place on Huafa Property Services (982 HK), Shanghai Henlius (2696 HK),CPMC (906 HK), Seven &amp; I (3382 JP), Shinko Electric (6967 JP), and Arvida (ARV NZ).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Seven & I, Silverlake Axis, Shanghai Henlius, CPMC, Shinko Electric, Arvida

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.</li>
<li>Currently, we see 4 expected ADDs/DELs but the 3-month reference period used for average market cap rankings starts on 1st September and only after that the rankings will become stable. </li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.
Currently, we see 4 expected ADDs/DELs but the 3-month reference period used for average market cap rankings starts on 1st September and only after that the rankings will become stable. 


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 4 Changes Possible; Reference Period Starts on 1st Sep

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Couple of weeks from the start of the review period for the December rebalance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a>, we see four potential index changes.</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that are close to the inclusion zone and there could be a reordering among the non-constituents as stock prices move around.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes since the start of the year with most of the outperformance coming over the last 6 weeks.</li>
</ul>


Couple of weeks from the start of the review period for the December rebalance of SET 50 Index, we see four potential index changes.
There are a few stocks that are close to the inclusion zone and there could be a reordering among the non-constituents as stock prices move around.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes since the start of the year with most of the outperformance coming over the last 6 weeks.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes & A Few Close Names

Thailand

Intouch Holdings Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based investment holding company primarily engaged in the telecommunications, media, and technology (TMT) sectors, with a focus on digital businesses. The company primarily generates revenue through its stakes in subsidiaries and associates, most notably Advanced Info Service (AIS), Thailand's largest mobile operator. It was established in 1983 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Aug 2024: Orora, Fuji Soft, J Tower, Seven & I, Taishin/Shin Kong, PropertyGuru

For the month of Aug, 10 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$56bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shin Kong/Taishin Financial, Jardine Matheson, Toyota Motors, Huafa Props

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Seven & I, Silverlake Axis, Shanghai Henlius, CPMC, Shinko Electric, Arvida

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 4 Changes Possible; Reference Period Starts on 1st Sep

We currently see SAWAD, COM7, BANPU, and TCAP as expected ADDs and EA, TIDLOR, CENTEL, and BCP as expected DELs. A couple of these names have 3-4x...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes & A Few Close Names

There are 4 potential changes for the SET50 in Dec. There are some other stocks that could make the cut. The adds have outperformed the deletes....

Brian Freitas

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