FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

The recent rising trend in the JPY and falling trend in the USD have had a life of their own this year, unwinding excessive positioning built up from end 2012 to mid-2015 for the JPY and from mid-2014 until January this year for the USD.  These trend reversals have contributed to the volatility in global markets that were being buffeted by the upheaval in Chinese markets and commodity prices, and more recently by Brexit fears. The rebounding JPY added to risk aversion, while the falling USD boosted risk appetite, the feedback from a falling to USD to a rising JPY added to the churn and uncertainty.  However, the JPY and USD have started to stabilize in recent days and excessive positioning appears to have been significantly cleansed, allowing markets to see more clearly improving conditions in Chinese and EM economies and focus on the rebound in commodity markets.  Brexit fears are likely to remain heightened and indeed may intensify as we approach the 23 June referendum.  This may tend to keep risk appetite and USD/JPY contained below 110.  But investors may still tend to seek out EM and commodity currencies to avoid negative rates and record low yields in major economies.  Brexit fears have weighed on European currencies and we may see further gains in EM and commodity currencies against the EUR.

The recent rising trend in the JPY and falling trend in the USD have had a life of their own this year, unwinding excessive positioning built up from end 2012 to mid-2015 for the JPY and from mid-2014 until January this year for the USD.  These trend reversals have contributed to the volatility in global markets that were being buffeted by the upheaval in Chinese markets and commodity prices, and more recently by Brexit fears. The rebounding JPY added to risk aversion, while the falling USD boosted risk appetite, the feedback from a falling to USD to a rising JPY added to the churn and uncertainty.  However, the JPY and USD have started to stabilize in recent days and excessive positioning appears to have been significantly cleansed, allowing markets to see more clearly improving conditions in Chinese and EM economies and focus on the rebound in commodity markets.  Brexit fears are likely to remain heightened and indeed may intensify as we approach the 23 June referendum.  This may tend to keep risk appetite and USD/JPY contained below 110.  But investors may still tend to seek out EM and commodity currencies to avoid negative rates and record low yields in major economies.  Brexit fears have weighed on European currencies and we may see further gains in EM and commodity currencies against the EUR.

AmpGFX - Calmer USD and JPY, Weaker EUR, More Upside for EM and Commodity Currencies

Public Relations and Social Media Manager, Dechert LLP

Peggy Heffner

Public Relations and Social Media Manager

Dechert is a global specialist law firm

Dechert LLP

Dechert is a global specialist law firm.
Focused on sectors with the greatest complexities, legal intricacies and highest regulatory demands, we excel in delivering practical commercial judgment and deep legal expertise for high-stakes matters.

Our work is widely recognized. We have 20 standout practices noted by Chambers Global, including global-wide rankings for arbitration, corporate investigations, anti-corruption, investment funds and life sciences. Named Antitrust Team of the Year, Chambers USA commends our “accomplished group” as “routinely sought after to handle some of the most significant litigation and transactions in the antitrust world.” 

In an increasingly challenging environment, clients look to us to serve them in ways that are faster, sharper and leaner without compromising excellence. We developed a first-of-its kind legal project management department, which uses technology, people and processes to drive efficiency and deliver value for our clients.

We are innovators. Dechert ranked #7 in the Financial Times’ Top North American Innovative Law Firms. Financial Times also recognizes us among the Top European Innovative Law Firms and highly commends World Compass, our marketing compliance service, which offers investment firms advice in more than 100 jurisdictions.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

For the past several years, the U.S. Department of Labor (the “DOL”) has been in the process of revising the “investment advice” regulations that govern “fiduciary” status under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (“ERISA”). Revising these ERISA rules has been a high priority of President Obama’s administration for quite some time, and was the centerpiece of a policy speech by the President on February 23, 2015. These rules had not been meaningfully revised since 1975, notwithstanding the dramatic shift in the retirement market from defined benefit plans to defined contribution plans (such as “401(k)” plans) and individual retirement accounts (“IRAs”).

For the past several years, the U.S. Department of Labor (the “DOL”) has been in the process of revising the “investment advice” regulations that govern “fiduciary” status under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (“ERISA”). Revising these ERISA rules has been a high priority of President Obama’s administration for quite some time, and was the centerpiece of a policy speech by the President on February 23, 2015. These rules had not been meaningfully revised since 1975, notwithstanding the dramatic shift in the retirement market from defined benefit plans to defined contribution plans (such as “401(k)” plans) and individual retirement accounts (“IRAs”).

The Brave New Fiduciary World Has Arrived - Has the Department of Labor Found a More Ideal Balance?

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

A shrinking work week and lackluster hourly wage growth amid higher inflation could be pinching consumers.A weak consumption report for February and huge downward revisions to the January consumption growth rates indicate that some of last week's caution may have been warranted.  Soft auto data at the end of the week indicated that consumption growth may not accelerate in March.The two other big pieces of data last week were the U.S. employment report, which was slightly better than expected, and purchasing data from around the world that came in better than hoped, with forward-looking data on new orders driving the composite index sharply higher, especially in the United States.Analysts: Robert Johnson &amp; Alina Tarlea

A shrinking work week and lackluster hourly wage growth amid higher inflation could be pinching consumers.A weak consumption report for February and huge downward revisions to the January consumption growth rates indicate that some of last week's caution may have been warranted.  Soft auto data at the end of the week indicated that consumption growth may not accelerate in March.The two other big pieces of data last week were the U.S. employment report, which was slightly better than expected, and purchasing data from around the world that came in better than hoped, with forward-looking data on new orders driving the composite index sharply higher, especially in the United States.Analysts: Robert Johnson &amp; Alina Tarlea

The recent rebound in global assets has been driven by emerging market and USA assets, while other developed markets, particularly Japanese and Eurozone assets have lagged behind and indeed their bank stocks have sagged.  The rise in US assets is supported by resilience in US economic data, a dovish turn by the Fed and a weaker USD.  Stronger EM assets have been supported by a recovery in oil and other commodity prices, policy easing by China, Europe, and Japan, a dovish Fed, and improved outlook for Chinese growth, currency and asset markets. Weaker growth indicators in Japan, weaker inflation expectations in Europe, weaker bank equites, and overall sluggish equity performances suggest policymakers will work hard to prevent further strength in EUR and JPY.  It is hard to get behind the further rally in these currencies.  If risk aversion returns they may rise, but even then these gains are likely to be limited and gold should be favored as the alternative safe haven.  The outlook for EM assets is now more balanced after investors have piled back in over the last month.  The recent down-turn in oil prices may return as a dampening influence on EM assets and currencies. Investors may also start to consider the Fed coming back into play by mid-year.

The recent rebound in global assets has been driven by emerging market and USA assets, while other developed markets, particularly Japanese and Eurozone assets have lagged behind and indeed their bank stocks have sagged.  The rise in US assets is supported by resilience in US economic data, a dovish turn by the Fed and a weaker USD.  Stronger EM assets have been supported by a recovery in oil and other commodity prices, policy easing by China, Europe, and Japan, a dovish Fed, and improved outlook for Chinese growth, currency and asset markets. Weaker growth indicators in Japan, weaker inflation expectations in Europe, weaker bank equites, and overall sluggish equity performances suggest policymakers will work hard to prevent further strength in EUR and JPY.  It is hard to get behind the further rally in these currencies.  If risk aversion returns they may rise, but even then these gains are likely to be limited and gold should be favored as the alternative safe haven.  The outlook for EM assets is now more balanced after investors have piled back in over the last month.  The recent down-turn in oil prices may return as a dampening influence on EM assets and currencies. Investors may also start to consider the Fed coming back into play by mid-year.

AmpGFX - Warning Signs for EUR and JPY, EM Rally Mature, Gold May Be Poised for Renewed Strength

Global markets and investor confidence have reached an inflection point.  They have recovered from the extreme bearishness in the early months of the year supported by significant further monetary policy easing, cooperation among oil-producing nations, a sense that Chinese policymakers are working harder to underpin growth and stabilize its capital markets, and ECB efforts to mitigate the dampening effects of its negative rate policy on bank profits.  However, last week, global asset markets retreated after bumping up against down-trends established over the last year. Investors are worried that global growth and potential earnings remain tepid, that structural problems in emerging markets and over-supplied commodity markets remain. They may be concerned by the prospect of a return to monetary policy tightening in the US, the lingering doubts over bank profitability and loan quality, and limited further space to ease monetary and fiscal policy if required.  The outlook for US monetary policy will be important and key events this week will be watched closely.  We see the wages data at end week particularly important in the wake of a benign wage growth outlook in the 16 March FOMC meeting.

Global markets and investor confidence have reached an inflection point.  They have recovered from the extreme bearishness in the early months of the year supported by significant further monetary policy easing, cooperation among oil-producing nations, a sense that Chinese policymakers are working harder to underpin growth and stabilize its capital markets, and ECB efforts to mitigate the dampening effects of its negative rate policy on bank profits.  However, last week, global asset markets retreated after bumping up against down-trends established over the last year. Investors are worried that global growth and potential earnings remain tepid, that structural problems in emerging markets and over-supplied commodity markets remain. They may be concerned by the prospect of a return to monetary policy tightening in the US, the lingering doubts over bank profitability and loan quality, and limited further space to ease monetary and fiscal policy if required.  The outlook for US monetary policy will be important and key events this week will be watched closely.  We see the wages data at end week particularly important in the wake of a benign wage growth outlook in the 16 March FOMC meeting.

AmpGFX - US Wages Data a Potential Flash Point, Global Markets Inflection Point

United States

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies by market cap listed on Nasdaq. The Index reflects companies across major industry groups including computer hardware and software, telecommunications, retail/wholesale trade and biotechnology.

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Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ US)

AmpGFX - Calmer USD and JPY, Weaker EUR, More Upside for EM and Commodity Currencies

The recent rising trend in the JPY and falling trend in the USD have had a life of their own this year, unwinding excessive positioning built up...

Greg Gibbs

The Brave New Fiduciary World Has Arrived - Has the Department of Labor Found a More Ideal Balance?

For the past several years, the U.S. Department of Labor (the “DOL”) has been in the process of revising the “investment advice” regulations that...

Dechert LLP

Slower Income Growth Lurking

A shrinking work week and lackluster hourly wage growth amid higher inflation could be pinching consumers.A weak consumption report for February...

Morningstar, Inc.

AmpGFX - Warning Signs for EUR and JPY, EM Rally Mature, Gold May Be Poised for Renewed Strength

The recent rebound in global assets has been driven by emerging market and USA assets, while other developed markets, particularly Japanese and...

Greg Gibbs

AmpGFX - US Wages Data a Potential Flash Point, Global Markets Inflection Point

Global markets and investor confidence have reached an inflection point. They have recovered from the extreme bearishness in the early months of...

Greg Gibbs

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)