Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Early weakness gave way to a late rebound, leaving HSI modestly lower on the week after a choppy but contained trading pattern.</li>
<li>Breadth continued to deteriorate, with fewer than one third of optionable names finishing higher for a second consecutive week. Option volumes continue lower trend.</li>
<li>Pop Mart stood out with a large increase in option volume after heavy selling to start the week.</li>
</ul>


Early weakness gave way to a late rebound, leaving HSI modestly lower on the week after a choppy but contained trading pattern.
Breadth continued to deteriorate, with fewer than one third of optionable names finishing higher for a second consecutive week. Option volumes continue lower trend.
Pop Mart stood out with a large increase in option volume after heavy selling to start the week.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Dec 08–12): Late Support Emerges as Breadth and Volumes Slide

<ul>
<li>Gold’s rally shows signs of overextension but the volatility footprint differs from prior rallies.</li>
<li>We exam major bull markets over the past 50 years to assess how the current move stacks up.</li>
<li>Fund flows and the sources of buying pressure are analyzed to gauge the rally’s sustainability.</li>
</ul>


Gold’s rally shows signs of overextension but the volatility footprint differs from prior rallies.
We exam major bull markets over the past 50 years to assess how the current move stacks up.
Fund flows and the sources of buying pressure are analyzed to gauge the rally’s sustainability.


Gold: Reviewing Five Decades of Bull Markets Against an Overextended Backdrop

<ul>
<li>Baba has rallied 26.6% off the April low but remains 6.82% below its March high. Against this backdrop, we examine implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.</li>
<li>Implied volatility and the implied jump are both elevated relative to historical norms.</li>
<li>Given the setup, we suggest a short-vega hedge that offers downside protection while preserving limited upside participation.</li>
</ul>


Baba has rallied 26.6% off the April low but remains 6.82% below its March high. Against this backdrop, we examine implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.
Implied volatility and the implied jump are both elevated relative to historical norms.
Given the setup, we suggest a short-vega hedge that offers downside protection while preserving limited upside participation.


BABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Volatility Setup, Post-Release Price Behavior and Hedge Recommendation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microstrategy-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US)</a></strong> has a market cap of US$97.7bn, an eye-watering 115% premium to its bitcoin holding of US$45.4bn. Before taking into account debt.</li>
<li>Investors are effectively dolling out $2+ for a $1 investment. And that investment is fuelled by new equity (shares are up 743% yoy) and debt. Perpetual preferred shares are next.</li>
<li>Sceptics are not in short supply. But neither are backers, such as Capital (7%), Vanguard (6.9%), Susquehanna, Norges and other, arguably, sophisticated players. Right now, the backers are winning.</li>
</ul>



Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) has a market cap of US$97.7bn, an eye-watering 115% premium to its bitcoin holding of US$45.4bn. Before taking into account debt.
Investors are effectively dolling out $2+ for a $1 investment. And that investment is fuelled by new equity (shares are up 743% yoy) and debt. Perpetual preferred shares are next.
Sceptics are not in short supply. But neither are backers, such as Capital (7%), Vanguard (6.9%), Susquehanna, Norges and other, arguably, sophisticated players. Right now, the backers are winning.


MicroStrategy (MSTR US): A Monetary Good Or Emperor's New Clothes?

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A rare cross asset relative value opportunity; time horizon two months, market neutral, near zero-cost premium.</li>
<li>The strategy exploits the historically low difference between implied volatilities for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spdr-gold-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8632:1" rel="noopener">SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)</a>.</li>
<li>This insight lays out trade rationale, historical context, fundamental drivers, and trade implementation. Nasdaq-100 Vega exposure provides the strategy with an extra edge and tailwind for success.</li>
</ul>


A rare cross asset relative value opportunity; time horizon two months, market neutral, near zero-cost premium.
The strategy exploits the historically low difference between implied volatilities for the Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) and the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US).
This insight lays out trade rationale, historical context, fundamental drivers, and trade implementation. Nasdaq-100 Vega exposure provides the strategy with an extra edge and tailwind for success.


EQD | Nasdaq-100 Vs. Gold - A Relative Value Volatility Strategy with an Edge

United States

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies by market cap listed on Nasdaq. The Index reflects companies across major industry groups including computer hardware and software, telecommunications, retail/wholesale trade and biotechnology.

Price Gauge
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Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ US)

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Dec 08–12): Late Support Emerges as Breadth and Volumes Slide

A choppy week for Hong Kong single stocks saw early selling give way to a late rebound, though breadth weakened further and option volumes...

John Ley

Gold: Reviewing Five Decades of Bull Markets Against an Overextended Backdrop

Gold’s powerful run invites comparison to previous bull markets. We examine fifty years of history to determine whether this strength is...

John Ley

BABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Volatility Setup, Post-Release Price Behavior and Hedge Recommendation

Baba has rallied but remains below March high, implied vol and jump are high, consider short-vega hedge for downside protection.

John Ley

MicroStrategy (MSTR US): A Monetary Good Or Emperor's New Clothes?

MSTR appears a clear short. And long bitcoin. But I won't advocate that, preferring to watch from the sidelines on the world's biggest bet on bitcoin.

David Blennerhassett

EQD | Nasdaq-100 Vs. Gold - A Relative Value Volatility Strategy with an Edge

Rare cross asset relative value opportunity exploiting low spread between implied volatilities of Nasdaq-100 and Gold. Tailwind for success...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Dec 08–12): Late Support Emerges as Breadth and Volumes Slide

A choppy week for Hong Kong single stocks saw early selling give way to a late rebound, though breadth weakened further and option volumes...

John Ley

Gold: Reviewing Five Decades of Bull Markets Against an Overextended Backdrop

Gold’s powerful run invites comparison to previous bull markets. We examine fifty years of history to determine whether this strength is...

John Ley

BABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Volatility Setup, Post-Release Price Behavior and Hedge Recommendation

​Baba has rallied but remains below March high, implied vol and jump are high, consider short-vega hedge for downside protection.

John Ley

MicroStrategy (MSTR US): A Monetary Good Or Emperor's New Clothes?

MSTR appears a clear short. And long bitcoin. But I won't advocate that, preferring to watch from the sidelines on the world's biggest bet on bitcoin.

David Blennerhassett

EQD | Nasdaq-100 Vs. Gold - A Relative Value Volatility Strategy with an Edge

​Rare cross asset relative value opportunity exploiting low spread between implied volatilities of Nasdaq-100 and Gold. Tailwind for success...

Gaudenz Schneider

Baba has rallied but remains below March high, implied vol and jump are high, consider short-vega hedge for downside protection.

Rare cross asset relative value opportunity exploiting low spread between implied volatilities of Nasdaq-100 and Gold. Tailwind for success...