Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P500 INDEX</a> and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$16.3bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index.</li>
<li>The Select Sector index trackers and S&amp;P500 Equal Weight trackers will need to buy the adds to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P500 INDEX</a> and sell the deletes, further increasing flow for the stocks.</li>
<li>The flows will change over the next week as stock prices move around, and final capping is done after the close on 14 March.</li>
</ul>


Constituent changes to the S&amp;P500 INDEX and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$16.3bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index.
The Select Sector index trackers and S&amp;P500 Equal Weight trackers will need to buy the adds to the S&amp;P500 INDEX and sell the deletes, further increasing flow for the stocks.
The flows will change over the next week as stock prices move around, and final capping is done after the close on 14 March.


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$16.3bn Trade; Big Impact for EXE, TKO

<ul>
<li>Constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a>, S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index for the March rebalance will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>There will also be capping changes for the Select Sector indices that will result in a round-trip trade of US$13.1bn. Constituent changes will add to that flow.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOGL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electronic-arts-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1179:1" rel="noopener">Electronic Arts</a>. Largest outflows are from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta Platforms</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/linde-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35233:1" rel="noopener">Linde</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcdonald-s-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1425:1" rel="noopener">Mcdonald's Corp</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/take-two-interactive-software-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14948:1" rel="noopener">Take Two Interactive</a>.</li>
</ul>


Constituent changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index for the March rebalance will be announced after market close on Friday.
There will also be capping changes for the Select Sector indices that will result in a round-trip trade of US$13.1bn. Constituent changes will add to that flow.
The largest inflows will be in Amazon.com, Tesla, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Alphabet (GOOGL US) and Electronic Arts. Largest outflows are from Broadcom, Meta Platforms, Linde, Mcdonald's Corp and Take Two Interactive.


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes & US$13bn Trade

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Adtalem Global Education  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed throughout January, we believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump's prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared.</li>
<li>We reiterated this in yesterday's pre-market ETF Pathfinder (Feb.3), also noting "we anticipate the Canada/Mexico tariffs to be resolved quickly, and we view the latest pullback as a buying opportunity."</li>
<li>Sure enough, both Mexico and, later, Canada, came to an agreement with Trump to delay tariffs for 30 days. Short-term support remains at the prior 1-month downtrend on the SPX.</li>
</ul>


As discussed throughout January, we believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump's prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared.
We reiterated this in yesterday's pre-market ETF Pathfinder (Feb.3), also noting "we anticipate the Canada/Mexico tariffs to be resolved quickly, and we view the latest pullback as a buying opportunity."
Sure enough, both Mexico and, later, Canada, came to an agreement with Trump to delay tariffs for 30 days. Short-term support remains at the prior 1-month downtrend on the SPX.


S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Still Bullish

<ul>
<li>DeepSeek appears to have turned the chatbot market upside-down, putting pressure on AI-linked stocks. The dust has yet to settle, but the selloff has been largely contained to AI-linked stocks.</li>
<li>The rest of the market did not seem to care; the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 was roughly flat yesterday.</li>
<li>Additionally, market dynamics remain healthy. Bottom line: as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our long-term outlook remains bullish.</li>
</ul>


DeepSeek appears to have turned the chatbot market upside-down, putting pressure on AI-linked stocks. The dust has yet to settle, but the selloff has been largely contained to AI-linked stocks.
The rest of the market did not seem to care; the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 was roughly flat yesterday.
Additionally, market dynamics remain healthy. Bottom line: as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our long-term outlook remains bullish.


S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$17.7bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index.</li>
<li>There is over US$500m to trade in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-global-management-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28770:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Global Management (APO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/workday-inc-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5660:1" rel="noopener">Workday Inc Class A (WDAY US)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a> swings from a small net buy to a large net sell following the rally in the stock last week.</li>
</ul>


Constituent changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$17.7bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index.
There is over US$500m to trade in Broadcom (AVGO US), Tesla (TSLA US), Apollo Global Management (APO US), Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) and Workday Inc Class A (WDAY US). 

Broadcom (AVGO US) swings from a small net buy to a large net sell following the rally in the stock last week.


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$17.7bn Round-Trip Trade Post Capping Cutoff

United States

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P500 Equal Weighted Index, which equally weights the constituents of the cap weighted S&P 500 Index and rebalances the index to target weights quarterly.

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Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight E (RSP US)

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S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Still Bullish

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