FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome.  The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of tightening bank credit conditions, some softening recently in credit growth, cooler job vacancies, a stronger AUD, some renewed doubts on China and timing of the 2 July election suggest the RBA needs to be decisive and get ahead of expectations.  Consequently we see further weakness in the AUD and continue to favour gold as we discussed last week outlining risks in China that may spill over to global asset markets and the rebounding JPY that may push the BoJ toward more easing.

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome.  The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of tightening bank credit conditions, some softening recently in credit growth, cooler job vacancies, a stronger AUD, some renewed doubts on China and timing of the 2 July election suggest the RBA needs to be decisive and get ahead of expectations.  Consequently we see further weakness in the AUD and continue to favour gold as we discussed last week outlining risks in China that may spill over to global asset markets and the rebounding JPY that may push the BoJ toward more easing.

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Event-Driven

<ul><li class="p1">Investa is subject to a takeover offer from Dexus, making the stock in play. Given the few opportunities to acquire portfolios of this quality, we anticipate further offers from other investors.</li><li class="p1">Investa is subject to a takeover offer from Dexus, making the stock in play. Given the few opportunities to acquire portfolios of this quality, we anticipate further offers from other investors.</li></ul>Analyst: Farina Parsons

Investa is subject to a takeover offer from Dexus, making the stock in play. Given the few opportunities to acquire portfolios of this quality, we anticipate further offers from other investors.Investa is subject to a takeover offer from Dexus, making the stock in play. Given the few opportunities to acquire portfolios of this quality, we anticipate further offers from other investors.Analyst: Farina Parsons

Investa Is of High Quality, but Soft Tenant Demand and Increasing New Supply Pose Risks.

Special Situations, Content Strategist, Smartkarma

Crispin Francis

Special Situations, Content Strategist

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<h2>Smoke! But is there Fire?</h2>When Dexus Property Group ("DEX") entered into a scheme of arrangement with Investa Office Fund ("IOF") back in December 2015, IOF traded through the terms on hopes of a potential competitive bid. The spread widened gradually...until today.<figure class="editor-figure"><figure class="editor-figure"><figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/006/126/original/SK%20M&amp;A%20-%20Investa%20Office%20Fund%20-%20Dexus%20Property%20Group.png?1457492765" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="6126"></figure>There was Investa Commercial Property Fund ("ICPF") who was  rumored to be a possible candidate, but it turned out that they were only interested in the Management Platform and they did <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/investa-sells-management-rights-to-office-fund-20160222-gn04p7.html" target="_blank">manage to buy it </a>off Morgan Stanley. </figure></figure>Then there…

Smoke! But is there Fire?When Dexus Property Group ("DEX") entered into a scheme of arrangement with Investa Office Fund ("IOF") back in December 2015, IOF traded through the terms on hopes of a potential competitive bid. The spread widened gradually...until today.There was Investa Commercial Property Fund ("ICPF") who was  rumored to be a possible candidate, but it turned out that they were only interested in the Management Platform and they did manage to buy it off Morgan Stanley. Then there…

<ul><li>Investa Office Fund, or IOF, has received an indicative, conditional and non-binding proposal from Dexus Property Group to acquire all of the outstanding units in IOF.</li><li>Dexus will pay AUD 0.8229 cash and 0.4240 in Dexus securities per IOF unit, implying an offer value of AUD 4.1147 for each IOF unit, representing a 5.2% premium to IOF's pro forma net tangible assets.</li><li>Existing unitholders of IOF will also still be entitled to the full distribution of up to 9.8 cents per unit for the period ending Dec. 31.</li></ul>Analyst: Farina Parsons

Investa Office Fund, or IOF, has received an indicative, conditional and non-binding proposal from Dexus Property Group to acquire all of the outstanding units in IOF.Dexus will pay AUD 0.8229 cash and 0.4240 in Dexus securities per IOF unit, implying an offer value of AUD 4.1147 for each IOF unit, representing a 5.2% premium to IOF's pro forma net tangible assets.Existing unitholders of IOF will also still be entitled to the full distribution of up to 9.8 cents per unit for the period ending Dec. 31.Analyst: Farina Parsons

Investa Office Fund Receives A$4.11 Takeover Offer From Dexus Property Group

On the 7 December 2015,&nbsp;Investa Office Fund (ASX:IOF) entered into a Scheme of&nbsp;Arrangement&nbsp;with DEXUS Property Group (ASX:DXS) (DEXUS) pursuant to which DEXUS would acquire all of the outstanding units in IOF.<ul><li>The offer is a mixed of scip and cash;&nbsp;0.424 DEXUS securities and AUD 0.8229 in cash for each IOF unit.</li><li>The implied offer of AUD 4.11 comes at a 7.31% premium to IOF's last close (4 December 2015)</li><li>IOF unitholders will be entitled to receive the full distribution for the 6 months ending 31 December 2015, which is expected to be 9.8 cents per IOF.&nbsp;</li><li>Deal Value ~ USD 1.84bn</li><li>No Shop no talk for 2 weeks.</li></ul>In this insight, we take a look at the transaction, valuation and the immediate trade worth setting up.

On the 7 December 2015,&nbsp;Investa Office Fund (ASX:IOF) entered into a Scheme of&nbsp;Arrangement&nbsp;with DEXUS Property Group (ASX:DXS) (DEXUS) pursuant to which DEXUS would acquire all of the outstanding units in IOF.The offer is a mixed of scip and cash;&nbsp;0.424 DEXUS securities and AUD 0.8229 in cash for each IOF unit.The implied offer of AUD 4.11 comes at a 7.31% premium to IOF's last close (4 December 2015)IOF unitholders will be entitled to receive the full distribution for the 6 months ending 31 December 2015, which is expected to be 9.8 cents per IOF.&nbsp;Deal Value ~ USD 1.84bnNo Shop no talk for 2 weeks.In this insight, we take a look at the transaction, valuation and the immediate trade worth setting up.

Australia

Investa Office Fund is a real estate investment trust. The Fund is an owner of investment grade office buildings and receives rental income from a tenant register comprising predominantly of Government and blue chip tenants. IOF has investments located in CBD markets throughout Australia and select offshore markets in Europe.

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Investa Office Fund (IOF AU)

AmpGFX - RBA Cut the Obvious Decision

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome. The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of...

Greg Gibbs

Investa Is of High Quality, but Soft Tenant Demand and Increasing New Supply Pose Risks.

Investa is subject to a takeover offer from Dexus, making the stock in play. Given the few opportunities to acquire portfolios of this quality, we...

Morningstar, Inc.

Anything to Be Excited About ?

Smoke! But is there Fire?When Dexus Property Group ("DEX") entered into a scheme of arrangement with Investa Office Fund ("IOF") back in December...

Crispin Francis

Investa Office Fund Receives A$4.11 Takeover Offer From Dexus Property Group

Investa Office Fund, or IOF, has received an indicative, conditional and non-binding proposal from Dexus Property Group to acquire all of the...

Morningstar, Inc.

Over Excitement? We See a Safe Bet

On the 7 December 2015, Investa Office Fund (ASX:IOF) entered into a Scheme of Arrangement with DEXUS Property Group (ASX:DXS) (DEXUS) pursuant to...

Crispin Francis

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