European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Across Europe’s dual-class names, spreads mostly tightened: Atlas Copco B-to-A 10.8%, BMW prefs 7.2%, Volvo at par; notable wideners include Carlsberg B at 19.5% discount and SSAB B at 2.6%.</li>
<li>Drivers include index inclusion, liquidity and control: Volkswagen prefs gain from flows and €0.06 dividend uplift; Telecom Italia savings widen on arrears prospects; Handelsbanken and Fuchs maintain puzzling elevated premiums.</li>
<li>Actionables: long MFE A versus B as ProSieben settlement lifts liquidity; Grifols B versus A on deleveraging; Henkel ords versus prefs; Volkswagen prefs versus ords; monitor Ericsson, Investor, Industrivärden parity.</li>
</ul>


Across Europe’s dual-class names, spreads mostly tightened: Atlas Copco B-to-A 10.8%, BMW prefs 7.2%, Volvo at par; notable wideners include Carlsberg B at 19.5% discount and SSAB B at 2.6%.
Drivers include index inclusion, liquidity and control: Volkswagen prefs gain from flows and €0.06 dividend uplift; Telecom Italia savings widen on arrears prospects; Handelsbanken and Fuchs maintain puzzling elevated premiums.
Actionables: long MFE A versus B as ProSieben settlement lifts liquidity; Grifols B versus A on deleveraging; Henkel ords versus prefs; Volkswagen prefs versus ords; monitor Ericsson, Investor, Industrivärden parity.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September'25 Report

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Stride Property (SPG) has entered into a conditional agreement to divest the Silverdale Centre to its managed large-format retail fund Investore (IPL) for NZ$114m, or a 6.8% initial yield.</li><li>The sale is conditional on IPL receiving shareholder approval for its management agreement amendments at its special meeting to be held on 20 October 2025.</li><li>We continue to view SPG's risk/reward as attractive given its -26% discount to net asset value and sector-high 9.3% gross yield (33% taxpayer).</li></ul>

Stride Property (SPG) has entered into a conditional agreement to divest the Silverdale Centre to its managed large-format retail fund Investore (IPL) for NZ$114m, or a 6.8% initial yield.The sale is conditional on IPL receiving shareholder approval for its management agreement amendments at its special meeting to be held on 20 October 2025.We continue to view SPG's risk/reward as attractive given its -26% discount to net asset value and sector-high 9.3% gross yield (33% taxpayer).

<ul><li>We upgrade Stride Property (SPG) from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM.</li><li>SPG is trading on a -26% discount to its NTA backing of NZ$1.72 per share, and at a -8% discount to our NAV, which conservatively assumes a further -15% decrease in the value of office and retail properties.</li><li>SPG has debt-reduction options including: (1) divesting part of its town-centre portfolio (we see this as likely); and (2) the spin-off of its office fund, Fabric.</li></ul>

We upgrade Stride Property (SPG) from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM.SPG is trading on a -26% discount to its NTA backing of NZ$1.72 per share, and at a -8% discount to our NAV, which conservatively assumes a further -15% decrease in the value of office and retail properties.SPG has debt-reduction options including: (1) divesting part of its town-centre portfolio (we see this as likely); and (2) the spin-off of its office fund, Fabric.

Stride Property Stepping Up To OUTPERFORM

<ul>
<li>MFE: A versus B discount widened to 32.2%. ProSiebenSat.1 tender issues new A shares, lifting A voting share from 12.64% toward ~19% at full take-up, supporting medium-term convergence.</li>
<li>Handelsbanken: B shares trade at a 62% premium despite far lower votes (ratio 55.17) and liquidity; history suggests mean reversion—bias long A / short B.</li>
<li>Telecom Italia: savings premium 11.4%. Three years of unpaid €0.0275 dividends (€0.0825 arrears). Payouts guided from 2026; Poste Italiane now largest shareholder, reinforcing governance stability.</li>
</ul>


MFE: A versus B discount widened to 32.2%. ProSiebenSat.1 tender issues new A shares, lifting A voting share from 12.64% toward ~19% at full take-up, supporting medium-term convergence.
Handelsbanken: B shares trade at a 62% premium despite far lower votes (ratio 55.17) and liquidity; history suggests mean reversion—bias long A / short B.
Telecom Italia: savings premium 11.4%. Three years of unpaid €0.0275 dividends (€0.0825 arrears). Payouts guided from 2026; Poste Italiane now largest shareholder, reinforcing governance stability.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August '25 Report

Precinct Properties New Zealand / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The listed property sector had another strong month in July with a broad based lift in share prices.</li><li>We do not expect any major surprises with rental growth fixed, occupancy stable, and interest costs falling.</li><li>This should support the continued re-rate towards net tangible assets (currently at a -17% discount).</li></ul>

The listed property sector had another strong month in July with a broad based lift in share prices.We do not expect any major surprises with rental growth fixed, occupancy stable, and interest costs falling.This should support the continued re-rate towards net tangible assets (currently at a -17% discount).

Real Estate Reflections Another Step Forward

Sweden

Investor AB is an industrial holding company. The Company owns significant shareholdings in major public multinational companies and conducts private equity activities in Europe, North America, and Asia. Investor takes an active ownership role in many of the companies it owns.

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Investor (INVEA SS)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September'25 Report

This month’s color: MFE A/B narrows on ProSieben; VW prefs outpace ords; Atlas Copco & BMW tighten; Carlsberg B and SSAB B widen; TIM savings bid...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Stride Property Hi-Yo, Silverdale

Stride Property (SPG) has entered into a conditional agreement to divest the Silverdale Centre to its managed large-format retail fund Investore...

Forsyth Barr

Stride Property Stepping Up To OUTPERFORM

SPG has debt-reduction options including: (1) divesting part of its town-centre portfolio (we see this as likely); and (2) the spin-off of its...

Forsyth Barr

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August '25 Report

Across Europe’s liquid dual-class universe, share-price spreads have mainly tightened. Convergence plays: MFE A/B as A votes rise; TIM savings...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Real Estate Reflections Another Step Forward

The listed property sector had another strong month in July with a broad based lift in share prices.We do not expect any major surprises with...

Forsyth Barr

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