New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Investore's (IPL) 1H24 distributable earnings was broadly in line with expectations.</li><li>The key surprise in the result was a reduction in dividends, with FY24 guidance reduced -9% to 7.2cps and FY25 implied distributions of at least 6.5cps.</li><li>With non-core asset sales taking longer than expected and interest rates remaining elevated, the motivation to cut distributions is twofold: (1) to retain capital and reduce gearing which is at the top end of its target range, and (2) to get ahead of higher tax to be paid and the lift in interest costs as hedging rolls off. </li></ul>

Investore's (IPL) 1H24 distributable earnings was broadly in line with expectations.The key surprise in the result was a reduction in dividends, with FY24 guidance reduced -9% to 7.2cps and FY25 implied distributions of at least 6.5cps.With non-core asset sales taking longer than expected and interest rates remaining elevated, the motivation to cut distributions is twofold: (1) to retain capital and reduce gearing which is at the top end of its target range, and (2) to get ahead of higher tax to be paid and the lift in interest costs as hedging rolls off. 

Investore - 1H24 Result—Getting Ahead of the Curve

<ul><li>Solid result, flat guidance slightly below expectations: IPL reported FY23 adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) +9% to NZ$28.6m.</li><li>Management of interest costs a key focus: IPL has hedges in place which fix 92%/72%/64% of IPL's FY24/25/26 debt at a rate of 4.0%/3.8%/3.6% (including 2.0% line fee and margin).</li><li>Asset sales maintain flexibility but moderate earnings: FY23 gearing was 36.5% and committed gearing was 38.1%, towards the top end of IPL's target range of 30%–40% but below its bank debt covenant of 52.5%. </li></ul>

Solid result, flat guidance slightly below expectations: IPL reported FY23 adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) +9% to NZ$28.6m.Management of interest costs a key focus: IPL has hedges in place which fix 92%/72%/64% of IPL's FY24/25/26 debt at a rate of 4.0%/3.8%/3.6% (including 2.0% line fee and margin).Asset sales maintain flexibility but moderate earnings: FY23 gearing was 36.5% and committed gearing was 38.1%, towards the top end of IPL's target range of 30%–40% but below its bank debt covenant of 52.5%. 

Investore: FY23 Result — Through the Checkout

<ul><li>Investore (IPL) has reported FY23 adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) +10% to NZ$31.1m.</li><li>The result was slightly above our expectations with lower tax and maintenance capex the key drivers.</li><li>IPL continues to see turnover rent increase, +NZ$0.4m to NZ$1.4m in FY23 with 2H23 NZ$0.8m, with Countdown sales supported by solid food price inflation.</li></ul>

Investore (IPL) has reported FY23 adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) +10% to NZ$31.1m.The result was slightly above our expectations with lower tax and maintenance capex the key drivers.IPL continues to see turnover rent increase, +NZ$0.4m to NZ$1.4m in FY23 with 2H23 NZ$0.8m, with Countdown sales supported by solid food price inflation.

Investore: FY23 Result – Initial Thoughts

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>April was a tough month for listed property vehicles (LPVs) as sticky inflation once again sent interest rates higher.</li><li>The NZ 10 year swap rate is currently c.4.5%, but is in the middle of its 100 bp trading range for the past 18-months.</li><li>The yield curve continues to suggest short-term rates will decline, but  longer term rates (the more important for NZ listed property valuations) continue to be anchored at 4% to 5%. </li></ul>

April was a tough month for listed property vehicles (LPVs) as sticky inflation once again sent interest rates higher.The NZ 10 year swap rate is currently c.4.5%, but is in the middle of its 100 bp trading range for the past 18-months.The yield curve continues to suggest short-term rates will decline, but  longer term rates (the more important for NZ listed property valuations) continue to be anchored at 4% to 5%. 

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>March was a solid month for the listed property sector, making up some of the lost ground through January and February as talk of potentially higher interest rates subsided with the release of weak economic data.</li><li>Two property companies with a March balance date have released year end valuations that suggest flat values over 2H24, which we view as a little optimistic given our channel checks.</li><li>Our comparison of this property sector downcycle suggests we are through the worst, but we note that large interest rate cuts were required to stabilise the sector in the GFC. </li></ul></div></div></div></div>

March was a solid month for the listed property sector, making up some of the lost ground through January and February as talk of potentially higher interest rates subsided with the release of weak economic data.Two property companies with a March balance date have released year end valuations that suggest flat values over 2H24, which we view as a little optimistic given our channel checks.Our comparison of this property sector downcycle suggests we are through the worst, but we note that large interest rate cuts were required to stabilise the sector in the GFC. 

Real Estate Reflections - Marching Back Lost Ground

New Zealand

Investore Property Limited operates as a real estate investment company. The Company invests in retail property assets. Investore Property also provides leasing services. Investore Property serves clients in New Zealand.

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Investore Property (IPL NZ)

Investore - 1H24 Result—Getting Ahead of the Curve

The key surprise in the result was a reduction in dividends, with FY24 guidance reduced -9% to 7.2cps and FY25 implied distributions of at least...

Forsyth Barr

Investore: FY23 Result — Through the Checkout

Investore (IPL) reported a solid FY23 result under pinned by acquisitions and rent growth, but mostly offset by higher interest...

Forsyth Barr

Investore: FY23 Result – Initial Thoughts

Investore (IPL) has reported FY23 adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) +10% to NZ$31.1m; IPL continues to see turnover rent increase, +NZ$0.4m to...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections - Taxing Times

April was a tough month for listed property vehicles (LPVs) as sticky inflation once again sent interest rates higher. The NZ 10 year swap rate is...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections - Marching Back Lost Ground

Two property companies with a March balance date have released year end valuations that suggest flat values over 2H24, which we view as a little...

Forsyth Barr

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