Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.</li>
<li>This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.</li>
<li>We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare</li>
</ul>


Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare


Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ajanta-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10053:1" rel="noopener">Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN)</a> reported better-than-expected profitability in Q1FY24, due to softening of raw material prices and normalization of freight rates. EBITDA margin expanded 300bps YoY to 26%.</li>
<li>Revenue increased 7% YoY to INR10B, driven by superior execution in branded generics business and lesser price erosion in the U.S. 73% of the total sales came from branded generic.</li>
<li>Management maintained mid-teen revenue growth and EBITDA margin guidance of ~25% for FY24. Ajanta Pharma has a positive business outlook due to growing branded generic business and niche U.S. launches.</li>
</ul>



Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN) reported better-than-expected profitability in Q1FY24, due to softening of raw material prices and normalization of freight rates. EBITDA margin expanded 300bps YoY to 26%.
Revenue increased 7% YoY to INR10B, driven by superior execution in branded generics business and lesser price erosion in the U.S. 73% of the total sales came from branded generic.
Management maintained mid-teen revenue growth and EBITDA margin guidance of ~25% for FY24. Ajanta Pharma has a positive business outlook due to growing branded generic business and niche U.S. launches.


Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN): Starts FY24 With Healthy Branded Generics Growth and Improving Margins

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mankind-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36389:1" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma</a>  raised around US$527m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.</li>
<li>We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous note, in this note, we talk about the demand and trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Mankind Pharma  raised around US$527m in its upcoming India IPO.
MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.
We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous note, in this note, we talk about the demand and trading dynamics.


Mankind Pharma IPO Trading - Strong Insti Demand Makes up for Retail Lag

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mankind-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36389:1" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma (6596876Z IN)</a>, a pharmaceutical company, is seeking to raise up to Rs43.3 billion (US$527 million) at Rs1,026-1,080 per share. The public offer runs from 25-27 April.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mankind-pharma-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:99882" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mankind-pharma-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:99946" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mankind-pharma-ipo-updates-warrant-caution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:100442" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma IPO: Updates Warrant Caution</a>. </li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that Mankind Pharma is fully valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we are inclined to pass on this IPO. </li>
</ul>



Mankind Pharma (6596876Z IN), a pharmaceutical company, is seeking to raise up to Rs43.3 billion (US$527 million) at Rs1,026-1,080 per share. The public offer runs from 25-27 April.
We previously discussed the IPO in Mankind Pharma IPO: The Bull Case, Mankind Pharma IPO: The Bear Case and Mankind Pharma IPO: Updates Warrant Caution. 
Our valuation analysis suggests that Mankind Pharma is fully valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we are inclined to pass on this IPO. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mankind-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36389:1" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma (6596876Z IN)</a>, a pharmaceutical company, is seeking to raise up to Rs43.3 billion (US$527 million) at Rs1,026-1,080 per share. The public offer runs from 25-27 April.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mankind-pharma-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:99882" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mankind-pharma-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:99946" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>The 9MFY23 (nine months to December) disclosure showcases a slowdown in growth, market share losses, margin pressure and declining RoCE. We are cautious about the IPO. </li>
</ul>



Mankind Pharma (6596876Z IN), a pharmaceutical company, is seeking to raise up to Rs43.3 billion (US$527 million) at Rs1,026-1,080 per share. The public offer runs from 25-27 April.
We previously discussed the IPO in Mankind Pharma IPO: The Bull Case and Mankind Pharma IPO: The Bear Case. 
The 9MFY23 (nine months to December) disclosure showcases a slowdown in growth, market share losses, margin pressure and declining RoCE. We are cautious about the IPO. 


Mankind Pharma IPO: Updates Warrant Caution

India

Ipca Laboratories Limited operates a pharmaceutical company, which distributes products to over 75 countries worldwide.  The Group's products include finished dosage forms, drug delivery systems, bulk drugs and intermediates.

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Ipca Laboratories (IPCA IN)

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN): Starts FY24 With Healthy Branded Generics Growth and Improving Margins

Ajanta Pharma has a positive business outlook due to accelerated revenue growth driven by India branded generics business, niche and complex...

Tina Banerjee

Mankind Pharma IPO Trading - Strong Insti Demand Makes up for Retail Lag

Mankind Pharma raised around US$527m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the demand updates and the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Mankind Pharma IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that Mankind Pharma is fully valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we are inclined to pass on this IPO.

Arun George

Mankind Pharma IPO: Updates Warrant Caution

The 9MFY23 (nine months to December) disclosure showcases a slowdown in growth, market share losses, margin pressure and declining RoCE. We are...

Arun George

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