Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>iQIYI's third-quarter 2025 earnings call presented a snapshot of the company's performance and strategic direction, marked by a balanced view of advancements and challenges.</li><li>As a leading player in China's online video space, iQIYI's ability to produce widely appreciated content—such as the highly successful drama "The Thriving Land"—remains a significant asset.</li><li>This drama, with its universal appeal, underscores the company’s strength in long-form content that transcends cultural and temporal boundaries.</li></ul>

iQIYI's third-quarter 2025 earnings call presented a snapshot of the company's performance and strategic direction, marked by a balanced view of advancements and challenges.As a leading player in China's online video space, iQIYI's ability to produce widely appreciated content—such as the highly successful drama "The Thriving Land"—remains a significant asset.This drama, with its universal appeal, underscores the company’s strength in long-form content that transcends cultural and temporal boundaries.

iQIYI Turns Chinese Dramas Into a Global Export Powerhouse—Is This Its Breakout Advantage?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>iQiyi reported 3Q25 results: total revenue declined by 8% YoY to RMB6.68bn, in line with consensus/our estimate; non-GAAP net loss was RMB148mn, down from net income of RMB480mn in 3Q24 due to content investment and operating deleverage, also in line with consensus/our estimate.</li><li>For 4Q25E, we expect total revenue to recover by 2% YoY and 1% QoQ, mainly driven by the recovery of membership business on a better content pipeline and policy support.</li><li>Innovative businesses such as micro dramas and overseas businesses also started to bear fruit. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

iQiyi reported 3Q25 results: total revenue declined by 8% YoY to RMB6.68bn, in line with consensus/our estimate; non-GAAP net loss was RMB148mn, down from net income of RMB480mn in 3Q24 due to content investment and operating deleverage, also in line with consensus/our estimate.For 4Q25E, we expect total revenue to recover by 2% YoY and 1% QoQ, mainly driven by the recovery of membership business on a better content pipeline and policy support.Innovative businesses such as micro dramas and overseas businesses also started to bear fruit. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IQIYI (IQ US) - Inline 3Q25 Results; Expect Revenue and Margin Recovery in 4Q25E

<ul><li>We forecast iQiyi’s total revenue to be flattish QoQ but retreat by 8% YoY to RMB6.64bn in 3Q25E, with a resilient membership business (+3% QoQ) supported by the quality content pipeline.</li><li>We estimate non-GAAP operating loss of RMB23mn in 3Q25E, vs operating income of RMB369/59mn in 3Q24/2Q25, mainly due to the adjustment to certain non-core businesses and step-up of content investment during summer peak season.</li><li>Overall, we maintain FY25-27E revenue forecast largely unchanged, but lower non-GAAP operating income forecast by 0.4-2% to factor in the increase in content investment. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We forecast iQiyi’s total revenue to be flattish QoQ but retreat by 8% YoY to RMB6.64bn in 3Q25E, with a resilient membership business (+3% QoQ) supported by the quality content pipeline.We estimate non-GAAP operating loss of RMB23mn in 3Q25E, vs operating income of RMB369/59mn in 3Q24/2Q25, mainly due to the adjustment to certain non-core businesses and step-up of content investment during summer peak season.Overall, we maintain FY25-27E revenue forecast largely unchanged, but lower non-GAAP operating income forecast by 0.4-2% to factor in the increase in content investment. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IQIYI (IQ US) - 3Q25 Preview: Increasing Investment in Quality Content

<ul><li>iQiyi reported 2Q25 results: total revenue was down by 11% YoY/8% QoQ to RMB6.62bn, in line with Bloomberg consensus/our estimate; non-GAAP operating income was RMB59mn, ahead of our estimate (RMB26mn) thanks to the prudent opex control.</li><li>Looking into 3Q25E, we expect the core membership and online advertising revenue to recover by 3% and 2% QoQ respectively , supported by the quality content offerings in summer.</li><li>However, we lower our FY25-27E total revenue forecasts by 2-3%, mainly to reflect the adjustment of certain non-core business lines. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

iQiyi reported 2Q25 results: total revenue was down by 11% YoY/8% QoQ to RMB6.62bn, in line with Bloomberg consensus/our estimate; non-GAAP operating income was RMB59mn, ahead of our estimate (RMB26mn) thanks to the prudent opex control.Looking into 3Q25E, we expect the core membership and online advertising revenue to recover by 3% and 2% QoQ respectively , supported by the quality content offerings in summer.However, we lower our FY25-27E total revenue forecasts by 2-3%, mainly to reflect the adjustment of certain non-core business lines. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IQIYI (IQ US) - 2Q25 Review: Core Membership and Advertising Businesses to Recover in 3Q25

<ul><li>We expect iQiyi 2Q25E total revenue to decrease by 11%/8% YoY/QoQ to RMB6.62bn, 8% below Bloomberg consensus estimate, mainly due to: 1) delay of certain TV dramas; 2) weaker-than-expected performance-based ad business amid soft sentiment; and 3) the decline in content distribution revenue.</li><li>That said, we expect non-GAAP operating profit of RMB26mn in 2Q25E, which is largely in line with our previous expectation, as the company has maintained prudent control in content costs and opex.</li><li>iQiyi continues to invest in mini dramas and has achieved early success in certain self-produced mini dramas, but it still takes time for mini dramas to make meaningful revenue contribution, in our view. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect iQiyi 2Q25E total revenue to decrease by 11%/8% YoY/QoQ to RMB6.62bn, 8% below Bloomberg consensus estimate, mainly due to: 1) delay of certain TV dramas; 2) weaker-than-expected performance-based ad business amid soft sentiment; and 3) the decline in content distribution revenue.That said, we expect non-GAAP operating profit of RMB26mn in 2Q25E, which is largely in line with our previous expectation, as the company has maintained prudent control in content costs and opex.iQiyi continues to invest in mini dramas and has achieved early success in certain self-produced mini dramas, but it still takes time for mini dramas to make meaningful revenue contribution, in our view. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IQIYI (IQ US) - 2Q25E Preview: Total Revenue Under Pressure but Earnings Outlook Intact

China

iQIYI, Inc. offers video entertainment services. The Company provides movies, television dramas, variety shows, and other video contents. iQIYI offers services worldwide.

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iQIYI Inc (IQ US)

iQIYI Turns Chinese Dramas Into a Global Export Powerhouse—Is This Its Breakout Advantage?

iQIYI's third-quarter 2025 earnings call presented a snapshot of the company's performance and strategic direction, marked by a balanced view of...

Baptista Research

IQIYI (IQ US) - Inline 3Q25 Results; Expect Revenue and Margin Recovery in 4Q25E

For 4Q25E, we expect total revenue to recover by 2% YoY and 1% QoQ, mainly driven by the recovery of membership business on a better content...

CMB International

IQIYI (IQ US) - 3Q25 Preview: Increasing Investment in Quality Content

We forecast iQiyi’s total revenue to be flattish QoQ but retreat by 8% YoY to RMB6.64bn in 3Q25E, with a resilient membership business (+3% QoQ)...

CMB International

IQIYI (IQ US) - 2Q25 Review: Core Membership and Advertising Businesses to Recover in 3Q25

iQiyi reported 2Q25 results: total revenue was down by 11% YoY/8% QoQ to RMB6.62bn, in line with Bloomberg consensus/our estimate

CMB International

IQIYI (IQ US) - 2Q25E Preview: Total Revenue Under Pressure but Earnings Outlook Intact

We lower our target price to US$2.25 based on 13x 3Q25-2Q26E non-GAAP EPS (previous: US$2.45 based on 13x 3Q25-2Q26E non-GAAP EPS). Maintain BUY.

CMB International

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