Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>IQiyi reported C2Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income inline, 5.0% and 18% vs. consensus. </li>
<li>The short-term reason is executional, but long-term reason is sustained competition from well-funded rivals and short video platforms. </li>
<li>We keep the stock at BUY and cut TP to US$3.7.</li>
</ul>


IQiyi reported C2Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income inline, 5.0% and 18% vs. consensus. 
The short-term reason is executional, but long-term reason is sustained competition from well-funded rivals and short video platforms. 
We keep the stock at BUY and cut TP to US$3.7.


[iQIYI, Lnc. (IQ US, BUY, TP US$3.7) TP Change]: Take Out Value Is Still the Key Support for IQ

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With consumption in the doldrums, one would expect none growing at double digits. This is actually not the case; </li>
<li>Further, how many Chinese Growth Equity names are accelerating in growth in the second half? Quite a lot;</li>
<li>We reiterate our view that Chinese Internet names are took-all winners with strong pricing power, which are showing when they need to. The weak market sentiment is self-fulfilling.</li>
</ul>


With consumption in the doldrums, one would expect none growing at double digits. This is actually not the case; 
Further, how many Chinese Growth Equity names are accelerating in growth in the second half? Quite a lot;
We reiterate our view that Chinese Internet names are took-all winners with strong pricing power, which are showing when they need to. The weak market sentiment is self-fulfilling.


How Many Chinese Growth Equity Names Are Growing at Double Digits?

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.</li>
<li>Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.</li>
<li>Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.
Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.
Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.


Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>BILIBILI shares have rallied more than 200% since early November on prospects of China exiting zero-COVID, short covering, and accelerated breakeven timeline.</li>
<li>Yet simply achieving breakeven doesn’t justify its US$10 billion valuation. It has to be accompanied by decent profitable growth - an unlikely scenario given the aggressive downsizing needed for breakeven.</li>
<li>BILI’s businesses also entail structurally low margin. Stock could easily de-rate by 30% or more when growth euphoria recedes and disappointed profitability checks in during 2023.</li>
</ul>


BILIBILI shares have rallied more than 200% since early November on prospects of China exiting zero-COVID, short covering, and accelerated breakeven timeline.
Yet simply achieving breakeven doesn’t justify its US$10 billion valuation. It has to be accompanied by decent profitable growth - an unlikely scenario given the aggressive downsizing needed for breakeven.
BILI’s businesses also entail structurally low margin. Stock could easily de-rate by 30% or more when growth euphoria recedes and disappointed profitability checks in during 2023.


BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In 4Q24, Bilibili’s total revenue increased by 22% YoY and its largest business, value-added services, increased by 24% YoY.</li>
<li>SAIC president, Mr. Jia, removed 63 mid-level managers in the passenger car department.</li>
<li>Mengniu raised a profit warning that net profit will plunge by 95% - 99% in 2024.</li>
</ul>


In 4Q24, Bilibili’s total revenue increased by 22% YoY and its largest business, value-added services, increased by 24% YoY.
SAIC president, Mr. Jia, removed 63 mid-level managers in the passenger car department.
Mengniu raised a profit warning that net profit will plunge by 95% - 99% in 2024.


China Retail Weekly (24 Feb 2025): BILI, SAIC, NIO, Mengniu, JD, IQiyi

China

iQIYI, Inc. offers video entertainment services. The Company provides movies, television dramas, variety shows, and other video contents. iQIYI offers services worldwide.

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iQIYI Inc (IQ US)

[iQIYI, Lnc. (IQ US, BUY, TP US$3.7) TP Change]: Take Out Value Is Still the Key Support for IQ

IQiyi's recent financial results met expectations, but long-term concerns remain due to competition from well-funded rivals and short video...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

How Many Chinese Growth Equity Names Are Growing at Double Digits?

More Chinese growth equity names growing at double digit than single and more are accelerating in growth in C2H24. Pessimism can turn into self...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Macro: Sector Positioning Update

Sector positioning among active China Funds. Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Energy shows signs of a turnaround, whilst...

Steven Holden

BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

Simply achieving breakeven can't justify BILI's US$10bn market cap. Expect the company to be a leaner, profitable company yet without bright...

Eric Chen

China Retail Weekly (24 Feb 2025): BILI, SAIC, NIO, Mengniu, JD, IQiyi

In 4Q24, Bilibili’s total revenue increased by 22% YoY. SAIC removed 63 managers in the passenger car department. Mengtniu raised a profit warning.

Ming Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[iQIYI, Lnc. (IQ US, BUY, TP US$3.7) TP Change]: Take Out Value Is Still the Key Support for IQ

​IQiyi's recent financial results met expectations, but long-term concerns remain due to competition from well-funded rivals and short video...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

How Many Chinese Growth Equity Names Are Growing at Double Digits?

More Chinese growth equity names growing at double digit than single and more are accelerating in growth in C2H24. Pessimism can turn into self...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Macro: Sector Positioning Update

Sector positioning among active China Funds. Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Energy shows signs of a turnaround, whilst...

Steven Holden

BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

Simply achieving breakeven can't justify BILI's US$10bn market cap. Expect the company to be a leaner, profitable company yet without bright...

Eric Chen

China Retail Weekly (24 Feb 2025): BILI, SAIC, NIO, Mengniu, JD, IQiyi

In 4Q24, Bilibili’s total revenue increased by 22% YoY. SAIC removed 63 managers in the passenger car department. Mengtniu raised a profit warning.

Ming Lu

IQiyi's recent financial results met expectations, but long-term concerns remain due to competition from well-funded rivals and short video...