External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Pakistan market loses ~9% during the first few minutes of the today's session amidst escalating tensions between US – Israel & Iran. The Pakistan market trading also halted for an hour as a risk management rule set by Pakistan Stock Exchange.</li><li>On Feb 28, 2026, reportedly, the duo of Israel & US carried out strikes in Iran, resulting in killing of the Supreme Leader of the Iran “Syed Ayatollah Khamenei” and other top civil military leaders of the country.</li><li>In response, Iran also aggressively targeted multiple bases of the US in middle eastern countries namely Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, KSA and others and directly attacked Israel over the weekend.</li></ul>

Pakistan market loses ~9% during the first few minutes of the today's session amidst escalating tensions between US – Israel & Iran. The Pakistan market trading also halted for an hour as a risk management rule set by Pakistan Stock Exchange.On Feb 28, 2026, reportedly, the duo of Israel & US carried out strikes in Iran, resulting in killing of the Supreme Leader of the Iran “Syed Ayatollah Khamenei” and other top civil military leaders of the country.In response, Iran also aggressively targeted multiple bases of the US in middle eastern countries namely Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, KSA and others and directly attacked Israel over the weekend.

PAKISTAN MARKET - DOWN 19% FROM RECENT PEAK; IMPLICATIONS OF REGIONAL TURMOIL

Political Analyst | Steno Research, Steno Research

Anne Sandager

Political Analyst | Steno Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The COP28 in Dubai is coming to a close with COP28-president Sultan al-Jaber presenting the final resolution just this morning.</li><li>Nearly 200 countries voted in favor of the deal which urges states to ‘move away from fossil fuel’ – a first in COP history.</li><li>Stakeholders had been working overtime to finalize an agreement as a dispute over whether the deal should call for the phasing out or phasing down of fossil fuels was threatening to undermine the entirety of the COP28 agreement.</li></ul>

The COP28 in Dubai is coming to a close with COP28-president Sultan al-Jaber presenting the final resolution just this morning.Nearly 200 countries voted in favor of the deal which urges states to ‘move away from fossil fuel’ – a first in COP history.Stakeholders had been working overtime to finalize an agreement as a dispute over whether the deal should call for the phasing out or phasing down of fossil fuels was threatening to undermine the entirety of the COP28 agreement.

COP28 Nuclear Deal – Implications for the Global Clean Energy Race

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Takeaways: Cohesion back at OPEC, but for how long?</li><li>US the biggest winner in crude oil markets.</li><li>Last week’s much anticipated OPEC meeting concluded with the decision to cut production further by 1 million barrels per day.</li></ul>

Takeaways: Cohesion back at OPEC, but for how long?US the biggest winner in crude oil markets.Last week’s much anticipated OPEC meeting concluded with the decision to cut production further by 1 million barrels per day.

Energy Cable #48 – Natural Gas Longs to Scholz: “Thank You!”

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

Sri Lanka Government International Bond / Credit

Sri Lanka Government International Bond (SRILAN GOVT)

In our last report dated 12-May-20 ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sri-lanka-no-default-this-year" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39301" rel="noopener">SRI LANKA: No Default This Year</a> ), we highlighted the fact that Sri Lanka will not default this year. We also compared <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-lanka-government-international-bond" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28349:1" rel="noopener">Sri Lanka Government International Bond (SRILAN GOVT)</a> with its closest Asian peers such as Mongolia, Papua New Guinea, Tajikistan, Pakistan, and Iraq. In this report, we update with recent events on the country and relative valuation of Sri Lanka’s SRILAN complex.
Despite deterioration in macroeconomic fundamentals (falling revenue vs. USD1bn debt instalment in October) further worsened by COVID-19, we remain confident that it is unlikely for Sri Lanka to default on its debt obligations in the next 12 months, given its success in securing new credit facilities partially offset by a suspension of IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) this month.  
S&amp;P’s downgrade of Sri Lanka’ s issuer credit rating to B- from B should lead to Moody’s downgrade of the same rating to B3 from B2 in October in the worst case scenario of which we do not believe investors will be surprised with. We have viewed Sri Lanka as a B- sovereign credit and at the “B-“ range, and we see the SRILAN complex as attractive versus peers despite a rally. We like SRILAN 21s to 24s as the most attractive within the SRILAN complex and assign our OVERWEIGHT recommendation. We assign a NEUTRAL recommendation to the rest of the SRILAN complex.
The Asian USD bond universe has outperformed since many countries exited the first wave of COVID-19. Our base case scenario calls for the mass adoption of vaccines to be at least a year away and we expect the default trend to head upward and the global economy to slowly make a comeback, starting in 2022. That said, we expect a depressed yield environment to make Asian USD bonds attractive versus developed market USD bonds. That said, we expect defensive sectors such as sovereign, telecommunications, utilities, insurance, and defence to outperform cyclical sectors towards 2021. We also like issuers which will be supported implicitly and explicitly by sovereign credits.

In our last report dated 12-May-20 ( SRI LANKA: No Default This Year ), we highlighted the fact that Sri Lanka will not default this year. We also compared Sri Lanka Government International Bond (SRILAN GOVT) with its closest Asian peers such as Mongolia, Papua New Guinea, Tajikistan, Pakistan, and Iraq. In this report, we update with recent events on the country and relative valuation of Sri Lanka’s SRILAN complex.
Despite deterioration in macroeconomic fundamentals (falling revenue vs. USD1bn debt instalment in October) further worsened by COVID-19, we remain confident that it is unlikely for Sri Lanka to default on its debt obligations in the next 12 months, given its success in securing new credit facilities partially offset by a suspension of IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) this month.  
S&amp;P’s downgrade of Sri Lanka’ s issuer credit rating to B- from B should lead to Moody’s downgrade of the same rating to B3 from B2 in October in the worst case scenario of which we do not believe investors will be surprised with. We have viewed Sri Lanka as a B- sovereign credit and at the “B-“ range, and we see the SRILAN complex as attractive versus peers despite a rally. We like SRILAN 21s to 24s as the most attractive within the SRILAN complex and assign our OVERWEIGHT recommendation. We assign a NEUTRAL recommendation to the rest of the SRILAN complex.
The Asian USD bond universe has outperformed since many countries exited the first wave of COVID-19. Our base case scenario calls for the mass adoption of vaccines to be at least a year away and we expect the default trend to head upward and the global economy to slowly make a comeback, starting in 2022. That said, we expect a depressed yield environment to make Asian USD bonds attractive versus developed market USD bonds. That said, we expect defensive sectors such as sovereign, telecommunications, utilities, insurance, and defence to outperform cyclical sectors towards 2021. We also like issuers which will be supported implicitly and explicitly by sovereign credits.

SRI LANKA: Surviving Between a Rock and a Hard Place

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Iraq Sovereign Credit (IRAQ GOVT)

PAKISTAN MARKET - DOWN 19% FROM RECENT PEAK; IMPLICATIONS OF REGIONAL TURMOIL

Pakistan market loses ~9% during the first few minutes of the today's session amidst escalating tensions between US – Israel & Iran. The...

Topline Securities

COP28 Nuclear Deal – Implications for the Global Clean Energy Race

The COP28 in Dubai is coming to a close with COP28-president Sultan al-Jaber presenting the final resolution just this morning. Nearly 200...

Steno Research

Energy Cable #48 – Natural Gas Longs to Scholz: “Thank You!”

Last week’s much anticipated OPEC meeting concluded with the decision to cut production further by 1 million barrels per day.

Steno Research

SRI LANKA: Surviving Between a Rock and a Hard Place

In our last report dated 12-May-20, we highlighted the fact that Sri Lanka will not default this year. We also compared Sri Lanka with its closest...

Bondcritic

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