Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by PM Narendra Modi won its 3rd consecutive parliamentary majority (293 seats) although BJP fell short of a majority (unlike in 2014 and 2019).</li>
<li>Modi will take office on Friday, but will be dependent on the 16 and 12 MPs of Chandrababu Naidu's TDP and Nitish Kumar's JD(U) respectively, CMs of Andhra and Bihar. </li>
<li>Naidu is an economic reformer, who's likely to support labour-market reform and privatisation. BJP's social agenda (UCC, single nationwide election) will need to be shelved, but economic reform will advance. </li>
</ul>


The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by PM Narendra Modi won its 3rd consecutive parliamentary majority (293 seats) although BJP fell short of a majority (unlike in 2014 and 2019).
Modi will take office on Friday, but will be dependent on the 16 and 12 MPs of Chandrababu Naidu's TDP and Nitish Kumar's JD(U) respectively, CMs of Andhra and Bihar. 
Naidu is an economic reformer, who's likely to support labour-market reform and privatisation. BJP's social agenda (UCC, single nationwide election) will need to be shelved, but economic reform will advance. 


NDA (Not BJP) Wins 3rd Consecutive Term; Economic Reform Will Still Gain

<ul>
<li>RGDP grew 8.2% in FY24, led by 9% growth in GFCF. Stronger PCE (up only 4% in FY24), aided by rebounding rural consumption, should enable 8.5% RGDP growth in FY25.</li>
<li>Fiscal deficit contracted to 5.6% of GDP in FY24 (0.3pp of GDP lower than budgeted), aided by soaring direct tax and GST revenues. Lower FY25 deficit should crowd-in private investment.  </li>
<li>With CPI inflation likely falling below 4%YoY in Q2FY25, we expect a 25bp rate in Aug'24. A 6%-above-normal monsoon should lower food inflation and repo-rate, further boosting FY25 RGDP growth. </li>
</ul>


RGDP grew 8.2% in FY24, led by 9% growth in GFCF. Stronger PCE (up only 4% in FY24), aided by rebounding rural consumption, should enable 8.5% RGDP growth in FY25.
Fiscal deficit contracted to 5.6% of GDP in FY24 (0.3pp of GDP lower than budgeted), aided by soaring direct tax and GST revenues. Lower FY25 deficit should crowd-in private investment.  
With CPI inflation likely falling below 4%YoY in Q2FY25, we expect a 25bp rate in Aug'24. A 6%-above-normal monsoon should lower food inflation and repo-rate, further boosting FY25 RGDP growth. 


India: Real GDP to Accelerate to 8.5% Growth This FY from Last Year's 8.2%

Podcast by Ted Seides on Capital Allocators, Capital Allocators

Capital Allocators

Podcast by Ted Seides on Capital Allocators

Allocator and asset management expert, Ted Seides, conducts in-depth interviews with leaders in the institutional investing industry. Guests include Chief Investment Officers from leading allocators, asset managers, strategists, thought leaders, and many more. Our mission is to learn, share, and help implement the process of premier investors.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Dan Taniba moved to India 25 years ago, transitioning from the startup and venture capital world to public equities in 2007</li><li>Discussion covers challenges of venture capital, investing in India, and the case for public equities</li><li>Conversation delves into India capital's perspective on various aspects of investing, with examples and personal anecdotes interwoven throughout.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Dan Taniba moved to India 25 years ago, transitioning from the startup and venture capital world to public equities in 2007Discussion covers challenges of venture capital, investing in India, and the case for public equitiesConversation delves into India capital's perspective on various aspects of investing, with examples and personal anecdotes interwoven throughout.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)

<ul>
<li>Merchandise exports grew 11.9%YoY in Feb'24 (+7.5%YoY in Jan-Feb'24) amid a broad-based rebound in engineering, pharma, chemical, electronic exports. With exports outpacing imports, the merchandise deficit declined 8.2%YoY in Apr'23-Feb'24. </li>
<li>Services exports are robust, with many hitherto-imported services also moving onshore. The services trade surplus widened 20%YoY in Apr'23-Jan'24, likely enabling the FY24 CAD to shrink to 0.6% of GDP.</li>
<li>With goods exports set to accelerate, and crude oil prices relatively tame, we expect the current account to swing to a surplus in CY24 (and +0.5% of GDP in FY25). </li>
</ul>


Merchandise exports grew 11.9%YoY in Feb'24 (+7.5%YoY in Jan-Feb'24) amid a broad-based rebound in engineering, pharma, chemical, electronic exports. With exports outpacing imports, the merchandise deficit declined 8.2%YoY in Apr'23-Feb'24. 
Services exports are robust, with many hitherto-imported services also moving onshore. The services trade surplus widened 20%YoY in Apr'23-Jan'24, likely enabling the FY24 CAD to shrink to 0.6% of GDP.
With goods exports set to accelerate, and crude oil prices relatively tame, we expect the current account to swing to a surplus in CY24 (and +0.5% of GDP in FY25). 


India: Merchandise and Services Both Help Toward a CA Surplus in CY24

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.</li><li>Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.</li><li>In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.</li></ul>

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

India

iShares MSCI India Index ETF is an exchange-traded fund registered in Singapore. The Fund seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, closely correspond to the performance of the MSCI India Index. The Fund invests all or substantially all of its assets in shares comprising the MSCI India Index in substantially the same weightings as constituted in the underlying index.

iShares MSCI India Index ETF (INDIA SP)

NDA (Not BJP) Wins 3rd Consecutive Term; Economic Reform Will Still Gain

NDA led by PM Modi wins 3rd consecutive majority, but BJP falls short. Modi dependent on TDP and JD(U) MPs for support. Economic reform likely to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Real GDP to Accelerate to 8.5% Growth This FY from Last Year's 8.2%

RGDP grew 8.2% in FY24, led by 9% growth in GFCF. PCE, up just 4% in FY24, is set to rebound strongly in FY25, helped by La-Nina-driven strong...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)

Dan moved to India 25 years ago, transitioning from startups and venture capital to public markets, sharing insights on his journey and experiences...

Capital Allocators

India: Merchandise and Services Both Help Toward a CA Surplus in CY24

Goods exports grew 7.5%YoY in Jan-Feb24, leading to a decline in the merchandise deficit. With the services surplus up 20%YoY, a swing to a...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt...

Steno Research

NDA (Not BJP) Wins 3rd Consecutive Term; Economic Reform Will Still Gain

​NDA led by PM Modi wins 3rd consecutive majority, but BJP falls short. Modi dependent on TDP and JD(U) MPs for support. Economic reform likely to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Real GDP to Accelerate to 8.5% Growth This FY from Last Year's 8.2%

RGDP grew 8.2% in FY24, led by 9% growth in GFCF. PCE, up just 4% in FY24, is set to rebound strongly in FY25, helped by La-Nina-driven strong...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)

Dan moved to India 25 years ago, transitioning from startups and venture capital to public markets, sharing insights on his journey and experiences...

Capital Allocators

India: Merchandise and Services Both Help Toward a CA Surplus in CY24

​Goods exports grew 7.5%YoY in Jan-Feb24, leading to a decline in the merchandise deficit. With the services surplus up 20%YoY, a swing to a...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt...

Steno Research

NDA led by PM Modi wins 3rd consecutive majority, but BJP falls short. Modi dependent on TDP and JD(U) MPs for support. Economic reform likely to...

Goods exports grew 7.5%YoY in Jan-Feb24, leading to a decline in the merchandise deficit. With the services surplus up 20%YoY, a swing to a...