Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>CAD for H1FY26 (Apr-Sep'25) was 0.8% of GDP. Despite the continued expansion of the services surplus, we expect a CAD of 0.2% of GDP in FY26 as US tariffs bite. </li>
<li>The 12mma of the fiscal deficit was 4.6% of GDP in Oct'25. The 12mma of corporate tax revenue troughed in Feb'25, income tax revenue in Jul'25; both have since rebounded. </li>
<li>Despite the fiscal stimulus via GST rate reductions, the recovery in direct tax revenue will likely ensure the fiscal deficit target (4.4% of GDP) will be comfortably achieved. </li>
</ul>


CAD for H1FY26 (Apr-Sep'25) was 0.8% of GDP. Despite the continued expansion of the services surplus, we expect a CAD of 0.2% of GDP in FY26 as US tariffs bite. 
The 12mma of the fiscal deficit was 4.6% of GDP in Oct'25. The 12mma of corporate tax revenue troughed in Feb'25, income tax revenue in Jul'25; both have since rebounded. 
Despite the fiscal stimulus via GST rate reductions, the recovery in direct tax revenue will likely ensure the fiscal deficit target (4.4% of GDP) will be comfortably achieved. 


India Twin Deficit Watch: CAD Shrinking to 0.2% of GDP, Fiscal Deficit Back on Target

<ul>
<li>RBI's MPC cut 25bp as expected, but it remains behind the curve, with the real policy rate now excessively high at +5%. RBI inflation forecasts were and remain too high. </li>
<li>Food deflation is likely to be shortlived, with vegetable prices rising MoM since May'25. But all other food and non-food inflation components are moderating, and GST cuts impart further disinflation. </li>
<li>We expect inflation to be 1.8%YoY in Q4FY26 (vs RBI's 2.9%YoY forecast), 2.3% and 2.5% in Q1 and Q2FY27, so expect another 75bp reduction in repo rate by Aug'26. </li>
</ul>


RBI's MPC cut 25bp as expected, but it remains behind the curve, with the real policy rate now excessively high at +5%. RBI inflation forecasts were and remain too high. 
Food deflation is likely to be shortlived, with vegetable prices rising MoM since May'25. But all other food and non-food inflation components are moderating, and GST cuts impart further disinflation. 
We expect inflation to be 1.8%YoY in Q4FY26 (vs RBI's 2.9%YoY forecast), 2.3% and 2.5% in Q1 and Q2FY27, so expect another 75bp reduction in repo rate by Aug'26. 


India: RBI Cuts 25bp but the Real Policy Rate Is Still Too High at +5%

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank (AXSB IN)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN)</a> price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Going long ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) and short Axis Bank (AXSB IN) targets a 5% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Axis Bank (AXSB IN) vs. ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlights: Going long ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) and short Axis Bank (AXSB IN) targets a 5% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Long ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) Vs. Short Axis Bank (AXSB IN): Quant-Driven Pair Trade in Indian Banks

<ul>
<li>Four stock pairs have triggered new mean-reversion trade signals, with price ratios deviating more than two standard deviations from their one-year averages.</li>
<li>Two of the opportunities involve companies in the same industry and two pairs involve companies in different industries within the same sector.</li>
<li>Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, outlining opportunities and key risk considerations.</li>
</ul>


Four stock pairs have triggered new mean-reversion trade signals, with price ratios deviating more than two standard deviations from their one-year averages.
Two of the opportunities involve companies in the same industry and two pairs involve companies in different industries within the same sector.
Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, outlining opportunities and key risk considerations.


Four New Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities in Asia-Pac

Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

<ul>
<li>China: Monetary &amp; Trade Indicators Strengthen: September data show broad-based monetary growth</li>
<li>Korea: Early Signs of Trade Softness: The first 10 days of October show exports down 15% YoY, imports down 22.8%.</li>
<li>India: Inflation Trends Favor Rate Cuts: Wholesale prices up just 0.1% YoY in September — a stark contrast to &gt;10% in 2022 and flat in 2023.</li>
</ul>


China: Monetary &amp; Trade Indicators Strengthen: September data show broad-based monetary growth
Korea: Early Signs of Trade Softness: The first 10 days of October show exports down 15% YoY, imports down 22.8%.
India: Inflation Trends Favor Rate Cuts: Wholesale prices up just 0.1% YoY in September — a stark contrast to &gt;10% in 2022 and flat in 2023.


Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 17 October 2025

India

iShares MSCI India Index ETF is an exchange-traded fund registered in Singapore. The Fund seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, closely correspond to the performance of the MSCI India Index. The Fund invests all or substantially all of its assets in shares comprising the MSCI India Index in substantially the same weightings as constituted in the underlying index.

iShares MSCI India Index ETF (INDIA SP)

India Twin Deficit Watch: CAD Shrinking to 0.2% of GDP, Fiscal Deficit Back on Target

CAD likely to shrink to 0.2% of GDP in FY26 as US tariffs bite, offsetting larger services surplus. With corporate tax revenue rebounding from...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: RBI Cuts 25bp but the Real Policy Rate Is Still Too High at +5%

RBI cut rates 25bp but remains behind the curve, as its inflation forecasts were and remain too high. We expect another 75bp of rate cuts by...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Long ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) Vs. Short Axis Bank (AXSB IN): Quant-Driven Pair Trade in Indian Banks

Pair trade with a 5% target-return amid significant deviation of the price ratio between Axis Bank vs. ICICI Bank. Opportunity for quantitative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Four New Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities in Asia-Pac

Three Aussie and one Indian pair show mean-reversion pair trade signals in Financials, Industrials, and Materials. Ideal for quantitative traders...

Gaudenz Schneider

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 17 October 2025

China: Monetary & Trade Indicators Strengthen: September data show broad-based monetary growth Korea: Early Signs of Trade Softness: The first...

Dr. Jim Walker

India Twin Deficit Watch: CAD Shrinking to 0.2% of GDP, Fiscal Deficit Back on Target

​CAD likely to shrink to 0.2% of GDP in FY26 as US tariffs bite, offsetting larger services surplus. With corporate tax revenue rebounding from...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: RBI Cuts 25bp but the Real Policy Rate Is Still Too High at +5%

​RBI cut rates 25bp but remains behind the curve, as its inflation forecasts were and remain too high. We expect another 75bp of rate cuts by...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Long ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) Vs. Short Axis Bank (AXSB IN): Quant-Driven Pair Trade in Indian Banks

​Pair trade with a 5% target-return amid significant deviation of the price ratio between Axis Bank vs. ICICI Bank. Opportunity for quantitative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Four New Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities in Asia-Pac

Three Aussie and one Indian pair show mean-reversion pair trade signals in Financials, Industrials, and Materials. Ideal for quantitative traders...

Gaudenz Schneider

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 17 October 2025

China: Monetary & Trade Indicators Strengthen: September data show broad-based monetary growth Korea: Early Signs of Trade Softness: The first...

Dr. Jim Walker

CAD likely to shrink to 0.2% of GDP in FY26 as US tariffs bite, offsetting larger services surplus. With corporate tax revenue rebounding from...

RBI cut rates 25bp but remains behind the curve, as its inflation forecasts were and remain too high. We expect another 75bp of rate cuts by...

Pair trade with a 5% target-return amid significant deviation of the price ratio between Axis Bank vs. ICICI Bank. Opportunity for quantitative...