Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>India has undertaken a major reform of the GST regime, collapsing the 5 slabs to 3, and substantially cutting the GST-rate for almost all goods and services. Positive for PCE. </li>
<li>Since 27th Aug'25, India faces a 50% tariff on more than half of its goods exports to the US (its biggest export market), a significant setback to growth. </li>
<li>FY26 fiscal deficit will likely exceed government targets, but this stimulus will ensure 8%+ real GDP growth despite weaker goods exports. Services strength will keep CAD to 0.6% of GDP. </li>
</ul>


India has undertaken a major reform of the GST regime, collapsing the 5 slabs to 3, and substantially cutting the GST-rate for almost all goods and services. Positive for PCE. 
Since 27th Aug'25, India faces a 50% tariff on more than half of its goods exports to the US (its biggest export market), a significant setback to growth. 
FY26 fiscal deficit will likely exceed government targets, but this stimulus will ensure 8%+ real GDP growth despite weaker goods exports. Services strength will keep CAD to 0.6% of GDP. 


India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Stimulus to Offset the Trump Tariff Setback to Growth

<ul>
<li>Headline CPI inflation eased to 1.55%YoY in Jul'25, implying that the real repo rate was +3.95%, the highest in 6.5 years (and versus +2.19% in Jan'25 before rate cutting began). </li>
<li>The RBI is behind the curve, and will need to cut the repo rate another 75bp by Dec'25 in order to adhere to its 2-6% inflation target. </li>
<li>Vegetable and food deflation will persist until Oct'25, thereby ensuring 2.8% average CPI inflation in FY26. Countering Trump tariffs with faster INR depreciation also argues for steady rate cuts. </li>
</ul>


Headline CPI inflation eased to 1.55%YoY in Jul'25, implying that the real repo rate was +3.95%, the highest in 6.5 years (and versus +2.19% in Jan'25 before rate cutting began). 
The RBI is behind the curve, and will need to cut the repo rate another 75bp by Dec'25 in order to adhere to its 2-6% inflation target. 
Vegetable and food deflation will persist until Oct'25, thereby ensuring 2.8% average CPI inflation in FY26. Countering Trump tariffs with faster INR depreciation also argues for steady rate cuts. 


India: Continuing Disinflation Highlights RBI's Renewed (Mild) Policy Error

Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

<ul><li><p>Of the 12 regional economies tracked, only 4 are above the 50 PMI boom-bust line: India (59) continues to lead. Vietnam, Philippines, and Thailand also remain in expansion territory.</p></li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type: disc;" aria-level="1"><p>Indonesia reported 5.1% growth—no surprise. It’s the same figure (rounded) they’ve reported nearly every quarter over the past decade, barring COVID. It raises credibility questions.</p></li><li>Tariff announcements expected this week remain vague, especially concerning China.</li></ul>

Of the 12 regional economies tracked, only 4 are above the 50 PMI boom-bust line: India (59) continues to lead. Vietnam, Philippines, and Thailand also remain in expansion territory.Indonesia reported 5.1% growth—no surprise. It’s the same figure (rounded) they’ve reported nearly every quarter over the past decade, barring COVID. It raises credibility questions.Tariff announcements expected this week remain vague, especially concerning China.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 8 August 2025

<ul>
<li>With CPI inflation at 2.1%YoY in Jun'25, the real policy rate is +3.4% -- higher than in Jan'25 (+2.19%) before the 100bp of repo rate cuts. </li>
<li>Despite a shift to a larger rate cut (accompanied by reductions in CRR), the RBI is still a bit behind the curve. We expect another 100bp of cuts by Feb'26. </li>
<li>Vegetable deflation will persist through H2CY25, so we expect headline CPI inflation to average 2.9% in FY26, obliging more rate cuts, enabling real GDP growth of 8.5%+ in FY26. </li>
</ul>


With CPI inflation at 2.1%YoY in Jun'25, the real policy rate is +3.4% -- higher than in Jan'25 (+2.19%) before the 100bp of repo rate cuts. 
Despite a shift to a larger rate cut (accompanied by reductions in CRR), the RBI is still a bit behind the curve. We expect another 100bp of cuts by Feb'26. 
Vegetable deflation will persist through H2CY25, so we expect headline CPI inflation to average 2.9% in FY26, obliging more rate cuts, enabling real GDP growth of 8.5%+ in FY26. 


India: More Rate Cuts Likely as Inflation Edges to the Bottom of RBI's Target Range

<ul>
<li>Real GDP grew 7.4%YoY in Q4/FY25 with PCE and GFCF growing 7%+, bringing FY25 growth to 6.5%, and the 4yr moving average of real GDP growth to 8.25% for FY22-FY25. </li>
<li>Manufacturing decelerated to 4.5% growth in FY25 (from 12.3% in FY24), as high interest rates constrained GFCF, until a 25bp cut in Feb'25 enabled GFCF to rebound 9.4% in Q4/FY25.</li>
<li>With interest rates set to decline 100bp from Apr-Dec'25, GFCF should grow 10.5% in FY26, while PCE accelerates to 7.5% growth, enabling real GDP to grow 8.5% in FY26.</li>
</ul>


Real GDP grew 7.4%YoY in Q4/FY25 with PCE and GFCF growing 7%+, bringing FY25 growth to 6.5%, and the 4yr moving average of real GDP growth to 8.25% for FY22-FY25. 
Manufacturing decelerated to 4.5% growth in FY25 (from 12.3% in FY24), as high interest rates constrained GFCF, until a 25bp cut in Feb'25 enabled GFCF to rebound 9.4% in Q4/FY25.
With interest rates set to decline 100bp from Apr-Dec'25, GFCF should grow 10.5% in FY26, while PCE accelerates to 7.5% growth, enabling real GDP to grow 8.5% in FY26.


India: Real GDP Grew 7.4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25; Likely to Accelerate to 8% This Year

India

iShares MSCI India Index ETF is an exchange-traded fund registered in Singapore. The Fund seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, closely correspond to the performance of the MSCI India Index. The Fund invests all or substantially all of its assets in shares comprising the MSCI India Index in substantially the same weightings as constituted in the underlying index.

iShares MSCI India Index ETF (INDIA SP)

India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Stimulus to Offset the Trump Tariff Setback to Growth

US tariffs will push CAD to 0.6% of GDP (vs previous fcst of 0.2%), but the GST and income tax cuts will provide a 1% of GDP stimulus, enabling...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Continuing Disinflation Highlights RBI's Renewed (Mild) Policy Error

CPI inflation eased to 1.55% in Jul'25, with real repo rate at +3.95%, a 6.5-year high. RBI needs another 75bp of cuts by Dec'25 to keep to its...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 8 August 2025

Of the 12 regional economies tracked, only 4 are above the 50 PMI boom-bust line: India (59) continues to lead. Vietnam, Philippines, and...

Dr. Jim Walker

India: More Rate Cuts Likely as Inflation Edges to the Bottom of RBI's Target Range

Despite faster easing, RBI is still behind the curve with real policy rate at +3.4%. Vegetable deflation to persist Jul-Dec'25, prompting 100bp...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Real GDP Grew 7.4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25; Likely to Accelerate to 8% This Year

RGDP grew 7.4% in Q4FY25 driven by strong PCE, and GFCF boosted by a 25bp rate cut in Feb'25. With interest rates to decline 100bp, and income tax...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Stimulus to Offset the Trump Tariff Setback to Growth

US tariffs will push CAD to 0.6% of GDP (vs previous fcst of 0.2%), but the GST and income tax cuts will provide a 1% of GDP stimulus, enabling...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Continuing Disinflation Highlights RBI's Renewed (Mild) Policy Error

​CPI inflation eased to 1.55% in Jul'25, with real repo rate at +3.95%, a 6.5-year high. RBI needs another 75bp of cuts by Dec'25 to keep to its...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 8 August 2025

Of the 12 regional economies tracked, only 4 are above the 50 PMI boom-bust line: India (59) continues to lead. Vietnam, Philippines, and...

Dr. Jim Walker

India: More Rate Cuts Likely as Inflation Edges to the Bottom of RBI's Target Range

​Despite faster easing, RBI is still behind the curve with real policy rate at +3.4%. Vegetable deflation to persist Jul-Dec'25, prompting 100bp...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Real GDP Grew 7.4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25; Likely to Accelerate to 8% This Year

​RGDP grew 7.4% in Q4FY25 driven by strong PCE, and GFCF boosted by a 25bp rate cut in Feb'25. With interest rates to decline 100bp, and income tax...

Prasenjit K. Basu

CPI inflation eased to 1.55% in Jul'25, with real repo rate at +3.95%, a 6.5-year high. RBI needs another 75bp of cuts by Dec'25 to keep to its...

Despite faster easing, RBI is still behind the curve with real policy rate at +3.4%. Vegetable deflation to persist Jul-Dec'25, prompting 100bp...

RGDP grew 7.4% in Q4FY25 driven by strong PCE, and GFCF boosted by a 25bp rate cut in Feb'25. With interest rates to decline 100bp, and income tax...