Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>For H1FY25, the fiscal deficit was only 29.4% of the FY25 target, with strong income-tax, GST and customs revenue. The 12mma of the fiscal deficit narrowed to 4.6% of GDP.  </li>
<li>Corporate tax revenue grew just 2.3%YoY in H1FY25, reflecting slower profits growth. Stronger government spending likely in H2FY25, but fiscal deficit will still be well below 4.9% of GDP. </li>
<li>CAD likely to be 1.3% of GDP in H1FY25. Lower oil prices, stronger G&amp;S exports should allow a small CA surplus in H2FY25, shrinking FY25 CAD to 0.2% of GDP.</li>
</ul>


For H1FY25, the fiscal deficit was only 29.4% of the FY25 target, with strong income-tax, GST and customs revenue. The 12mma of the fiscal deficit narrowed to 4.6% of GDP.  
Corporate tax revenue grew just 2.3%YoY in H1FY25, reflecting slower profits growth. Stronger government spending likely in H2FY25, but fiscal deficit will still be well below 4.9% of GDP. 
CAD likely to be 1.3% of GDP in H1FY25. Lower oil prices, stronger G&amp;S exports should allow a small CA surplus in H2FY25, shrinking FY25 CAD to 0.2% of GDP.


India Twin Deficit Watch: Improving Trend Persists Despite EPS and Trade Setbacks

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consultancy-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18708:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infosys-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:267:1" rel="noopener">Infosys (INFO IN)</a> price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infosys-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:267:1" rel="noopener">Infosys Ltd (INFO IN)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consultancy-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18708:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN)</a>  targets a 3% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN) vs. Infosys (INFO IN) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlight: Going long Infosys Ltd (INFO IN) and short Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN)  targets a 3% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


TCS (TCS IN) Vs Infosys (INFO IN): IT Giants Hit Pair Trade Trigger

Podcast by S&P analysing commodity market trends, Commodities Focus

Commodities Focus

Podcast by S&P analysing commodity market trends

S&P Global Commodity Insights analysis of key news and pricing issues from across the global shipping, natural gas, power, petrochemicals, agriculture, and coal markets.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) is playing a significant role in India's steel industry, accounting for 33% of total steel output</li><li>India's DRI market is characterized by rapid growth driven by steel production targets and sustainable steel making practices</li><li>DRI production is concentrated in central and eastern parts of India, with states like Chhattisgarh and Odisha being prominent producers and trade hubs.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) is playing a significant role in India's steel industry, accounting for 33% of total steel outputIndia's DRI market is characterized by rapid growth driven by steel production targets and sustainable steel making practicesDRI production is concentrated in central and eastern parts of India, with states like Chhattisgarh and Odisha being prominent producers and trade hubs.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Direct-reduced iron: India carving its path to meet 'green' steel ambitions

<ul>
<li>Headline CPI inflation stayed near 3.6%YoY for the second consecutive month in Aug'24, and core inflation remained benign at 3.4%YoY. A 25bp rate cut remains certain at the Oct'24 MPC.</li>
<li>Although Sep-Oct'24 inflation is likely to average 5%YoY (because of base effects), the strong monsoon should deliver a bountiful kharif harvest, bringing headline inflation back down to 4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25. </li>
<li>We expect the policy rate to decline by 25bp at each of the next four MPC meetings, to 5.5% by Apr'25. Rate sensitive sectors like banks, property, auto-companies will benefit. </li>
</ul>


Headline CPI inflation stayed near 3.6%YoY for the second consecutive month in Aug'24, and core inflation remained benign at 3.4%YoY. A 25bp rate cut remains certain at the Oct'24 MPC.
Although Sep-Oct'24 inflation is likely to average 5%YoY (because of base effects), the strong monsoon should deliver a bountiful kharif harvest, bringing headline inflation back down to 4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25. 
We expect the policy rate to decline by 25bp at each of the next four MPC meetings, to 5.5% by Apr'25. Rate sensitive sectors like banks, property, auto-companies will benefit. 


India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

Podcast by Eric Golden on Web3 businesses, Web3 Breakdowns

Web3 Breakdowns

Podcast by Eric Golden on Web3 businesses

Web3 Breakdowns is a series of conversations exploring innovation in the decentralized internet. Each episode will focus on a different topic - we will cover NFT projects, crypto assets, blockchain-based protocols, and businesses being built with Web3 architecture. We will talk to founders, artists, investors and influencers to understand this emerging ecosystem. Visit joincolossus.com to find more episodes, transcripts and a library of content to continue your learning.

<ul><li>Guest is Saurabh Mukherjeeya, founder of Marcellus Investment Managers and advocate for investing in India</li><li>Contrasts India and China, highlighting India's better performance over the years</li><li>Discusses the reasons behind India not receiving as much attention in terms of foreign investment compared to China, with recent shift towards investing in India</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Guest is Saurabh Mukherjeeya, founder of Marcellus Investment Managers and advocate for investing in IndiaContrasts India and China, highlighting India's better performance over the yearsDiscusses the reasons behind India not receiving as much attention in terms of foreign investment compared to China, with recent shift towards investing in IndiaThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Saurabh Mukherjea: The Case for Investing in India - [Making Markets, EP.42]

India

iShares MSCI India Index ETF is an exchange-traded fund registered in Singapore. The Fund seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, closely correspond to the performance of the MSCI India Index. The Fund invests all or substantially all of its assets in shares comprising the MSCI India Index in substantially the same weightings as constituted in the underlying index.

iShares MSCI India Index ETF (INDIA SP)

India Twin Deficit Watch: Improving Trend Persists Despite EPS and Trade Setbacks

Fiscal deficit in H1FY25 was 29.4% of FY25 target, and should end FY25 at 4.7% of GDP. CAD likely to shrink to 0.2% of GDP for FY25. But sluggish...

Prasenjit K. Basu

TCS (TCS IN) Vs Infosys (INFO IN): IT Giants Hit Pair Trade Trigger

Highly correlated Indian IT giants diverge, creating a fresh pair trade opportunity. Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion...

Gaudenz Schneider

Direct-reduced iron: India carving its path to meet 'green' steel ambitions

The discussion with Rohan Somanshi, Fred Wong, and Sumita Laik on the Asian metals markets, particularly DRI in India, highlighted the growing...

Commodities Focus

India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Saurabh Mukherjea: The Case for Investing in India - [Making Markets, EP.42]

Saurabh Mukherjeeya from Marcellus Investment Managers explains why investing in India may be a better choice than China, citing consistent double...

Web3 Breakdowns

India Twin Deficit Watch: Improving Trend Persists Despite EPS and Trade Setbacks

​Fiscal deficit in H1FY25 was 29.4% of FY25 target, and should end FY25 at 4.7% of GDP. CAD likely to shrink to 0.2% of GDP for FY25. But sluggish...

Prasenjit K. Basu

TCS (TCS IN) Vs Infosys (INFO IN): IT Giants Hit Pair Trade Trigger

Highly correlated Indian IT giants diverge, creating a fresh pair trade opportunity. Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion...

Gaudenz Schneider

Direct-reduced iron: India carving its path to meet 'green' steel ambitions

The discussion with Rohan Somanshi, Fred Wong, and Sumita Laik on the Asian metals markets, particularly DRI in India, highlighted the growing...

Commodities Focus

India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

​With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Saurabh Mukherjea: The Case for Investing in India - [Making Markets, EP.42]

Saurabh Mukherjeeya from Marcellus Investment Managers explains why investing in India may be a better choice than China, citing consistent double...

Web3 Breakdowns

Fiscal deficit in H1FY25 was 29.4% of FY25 target, and should end FY25 at 4.7% of GDP. CAD likely to shrink to 0.2% of GDP for FY25. But sluggish...

With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...