Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>CPI inflation receded to a 59-month low of 3.5%YoY in Jul'24, with food inflation abating to 5.1%YoY (from 8.4%YoY in Jun'24), as vegetable inflation fell to 6.8%YoY (from Jun'24's 29.3%YoY).</li>
<li>Whilst retaining its 6.5% policy rate on 8/8/24, RBI forecast 4.4%YoY inflation in Jul-Sep'24, and 4.7%YoY in Oct-Dec'24; we expect 4.2%YoY and 4.3%YoY respectively, amid 8-10% above-normal monsoon rainfall.</li>
<li>The policy repo rate will likely decline 50bp by Dec'24 and a further 50bp to 5.5% by Jun'25. Rate sensitives like banks, auto-companies, NBFCs and property stocks will benefit. </li>
</ul>


CPI inflation receded to a 59-month low of 3.5%YoY in Jul'24, with food inflation abating to 5.1%YoY (from 8.4%YoY in Jun'24), as vegetable inflation fell to 6.8%YoY (from Jun'24's 29.3%YoY).
Whilst retaining its 6.5% policy rate on 8/8/24, RBI forecast 4.4%YoY inflation in Jul-Sep'24, and 4.7%YoY in Oct-Dec'24; we expect 4.2%YoY and 4.3%YoY respectively, amid 8-10% above-normal monsoon rainfall.
The policy repo rate will likely decline 50bp by Dec'24 and a further 50bp to 5.5% by Jun'25. Rate sensitives like banks, auto-companies, NBFCs and property stocks will benefit. 


India: Relief on Food Inflation Makes an Oct'24 Rate Cut Near-Certain

Podcast by Eric Golden on Web3 businesses, Web3 Breakdowns

Web3 Breakdowns

Podcast by Eric Golden on Web3 businesses

Web3 Breakdowns is a series of conversations exploring innovation in the decentralized internet. Each episode will focus on a different topic - we will cover NFT projects, crypto assets, blockchain-based protocols, and businesses being built with Web3 architecture. We will talk to founders, artists, investors and influencers to understand this emerging ecosystem. Visit joincolossus.com to find more episodes, transcripts and a library of content to continue your learning.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Sajeet Pai, a VC at Bloom Ventures, provides insights on the Indian market, discussing unique features like low levels of debt and lack of trust.</li><li>India's massive population presents challenges and opportunities for investors, with a large segment of the population having low per capita income.</li><li>Cultural differences, such as the prevalence of cash on delivery in e-commerce, highlight the need for a nuanced approach when entering the Indian market.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Sajeet Pai, a VC at Bloom Ventures, provides insights on the Indian market, discussing unique features like low levels of debt and lack of trust.India's massive population presents challenges and opportunities for investors, with a large segment of the population having low per capita income.Cultural differences, such as the prevalence of cash on delivery in e-commerce, highlight the need for a nuanced approach when entering the Indian market.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Sajith Pai: Unpacking India - [Making Markets, EP.40]

<ul>
<li>The FY25 Budget projects a fiscal deficit of 4.9% of GDP (vs previous projection of 5.1%), but the 12mma of the fiscal deficit was already 4.8% of GDP by May'24. </li>
<li>With real GDP likely to grow 8.5% this year, direct tax revenue should considerably exceed official projections. Government's lower borrowing requirement should crowd-in private investment, further fuelling RGDP. </li>
<li>Hikes in LTCG and STT (on derivatives) are near-term negatives for stocks. But fiscal prudence, employment generation and agricultural productivity enhancements will create a virtuous circle in the medium-term. </li>
</ul>


The FY25 Budget projects a fiscal deficit of 4.9% of GDP (vs previous projection of 5.1%), but the 12mma of the fiscal deficit was already 4.8% of GDP by May'24. 
With real GDP likely to grow 8.5% this year, direct tax revenue should considerably exceed official projections. Government's lower borrowing requirement should crowd-in private investment, further fuelling RGDP. 
Hikes in LTCG and STT (on derivatives) are near-term negatives for stocks. But fiscal prudence, employment generation and agricultural productivity enhancements will create a virtuous circle in the medium-term. 


India: Mild Near-Term Negative for Stocks; Solidly Positive for Medium Term Growth

<ul>
<li>Goods export growth of 4.6%YoY was outpaced by import growth of 7.8%YoY (Apr-Jun'24), widening the merchandise deficit by 13.5%YoY. This was partly offset by the Apr-May24 services surplus widening 16.5%YoY. </li>
<li>In Q4FY24 (Jan-Mar'24), India had a current account surplus (0.6% of GDP) as the merchandise deficit of USD50.3bn was offset by a USD42.7bn services surplus and USD13.9bn incomes surplus.</li>
<li>With oil prices remaining subdued (USD75-90/bbl), goods exports and the services surplus expanding, India is likely to report a current account surplus of 0.5% of GDP in FY25. </li>
</ul>


Goods export growth of 4.6%YoY was outpaced by import growth of 7.8%YoY (Apr-Jun'24), widening the merchandise deficit by 13.5%YoY. This was partly offset by the Apr-May24 services surplus widening 16.5%YoY. 
In Q4FY24 (Jan-Mar'24), India had a current account surplus (0.6% of GDP) as the merchandise deficit of USD50.3bn was offset by a USD42.7bn services surplus and USD13.9bn incomes surplus.
With oil prices remaining subdued (USD75-90/bbl), goods exports and the services surplus expanding, India is likely to report a current account surplus of 0.5% of GDP in FY25. 


India: External Sector in Robust Health with Current Account Surplus Likely in FY25

<ul>
<li>Despite more than doubling in the past 4 years, the BSE-Sensex is fairly valued (trailing P/E of 24.04x) relative to its 10-year mean (23.93x)-- helped by sustained EPS growth. </li>
<li>The trailing P/E is above the 20-year (21.34x) and 30-year mean (20.4x), but those reflect weaker growth prospects in earlier decades. 10yr mean better reflects new normal 8% RGDP growth.  </li>
<li>Net FPI inflows reached a record USD10.14bn in Dec'23, when the market was similarly valued. FPI flows into equity were minimal in H1CY24, but likely to rebound. Stay moderately Overweight. </li>
</ul>


Despite more than doubling in the past 4 years, the BSE-Sensex is fairly valued (trailing P/E of 24.04x) relative to its 10-year mean (23.93x)-- helped by sustained EPS growth. 
The trailing P/E is above the 20-year (21.34x) and 30-year mean (20.4x), but those reflect weaker growth prospects in earlier decades. 10yr mean better reflects new normal 8% RGDP growth.  
Net FPI inflows reached a record USD10.14bn in Dec'23, when the market was similarly valued. FPI flows into equity were minimal in H1CY24, but likely to rebound. Stay moderately Overweight. 


India: Growth Ensures that the Market Is Not Too Expensive Despite Big 4yr Runup

India

iShares MSCI India Index ETF is an exchange-traded fund registered in Singapore. The Fund seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, closely correspond to the performance of the MSCI India Index. The Fund invests all or substantially all of its assets in shares comprising the MSCI India Index in substantially the same weightings as constituted in the underlying index.

iShares MSCI India Index ETF (INDIA SP)

India: Relief on Food Inflation Makes an Oct'24 Rate Cut Near-Certain

CPI inflation at 59-month low 3.5%YoY in Jul'24. We expect CPI inflation to average 4.2%YoY in Jul-Dec'24, less in H1CY25, hence expect policy...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Sajith Pai: Unpacking India - [Making Markets, EP.40]

The podcast episode with Sajeet Pai from Bloom Ventures discusses the opportunities and challenges of investing in India, highlighting the...

Web3 Breakdowns

India: Mild Near-Term Negative for Stocks; Solidly Positive for Medium Term Growth

FY25 Budget advanced reforms, notably in fiscal consolidation, employment, farm productivity and rationalising LTCG. But the latter (and higher STT...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: External Sector in Robust Health with Current Account Surplus Likely in FY25

India's current account swung to surplus in Q4FY24, with merchandise deficit offset by services & incomes surpluses, likely to continue in FY25...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Growth Ensures that the Market Is Not Too Expensive Despite Big 4yr Runup

Sensex trailing P/E of 24.04x is near 10yr mean of 23.93x, reflecting sustained EPS growth. Net FPI inflows hit a record USD10bn in Dec'23, when...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Relief on Food Inflation Makes an Oct'24 Rate Cut Near-Certain

​CPI inflation at 59-month low 3.5%YoY in Jul'24. We expect CPI inflation to average 4.2%YoY in Jul-Dec'24, less in H1CY25, hence expect policy...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Sajith Pai: Unpacking India - [Making Markets, EP.40]

The podcast episode with Sajeet Pai from Bloom Ventures discusses the opportunities and challenges of investing in India, highlighting the...

Web3 Breakdowns

India: Mild Near-Term Negative for Stocks; Solidly Positive for Medium Term Growth

FY25 Budget advanced reforms, notably in fiscal consolidation, employment, farm productivity and rationalising LTCG. But the latter (and higher STT...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: External Sector in Robust Health with Current Account Surplus Likely in FY25

​India's current account swung to surplus in Q4FY24, with merchandise deficit offset by services & incomes surpluses, likely to continue in FY25...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Growth Ensures that the Market Is Not Too Expensive Despite Big 4yr Runup

​Sensex trailing P/E of 24.04x is near 10yr mean of 23.93x, reflecting sustained EPS growth. Net FPI inflows hit a record USD10bn in Dec'23, when...

Prasenjit K. Basu

CPI inflation at 59-month low 3.5%YoY in Jul'24. We expect CPI inflation to average 4.2%YoY in Jul-Dec'24, less in H1CY25, hence expect policy...

India's current account swung to surplus in Q4FY24, with merchandise deficit offset by services & incomes surpluses, likely to continue in FY25...

Sensex trailing P/E of 24.04x is near 10yr mean of 23.93x, reflecting sustained EPS growth. Net FPI inflows hit a record USD10bn in Dec'23, when...