Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Main points:– The economic outlook is uncertain and Biden is spending like there is no tomorrow.</li><li>Recession in 2024 remains our base case– The Congress seems incapable of enforcing any fiscal discipline.</li><li>Higher structural TGA levels needed for the Treasury.</li></ul>

Main points:– The economic outlook is uncertain and Biden is spending like there is no tomorrow.Recession in 2024 remains our base case– The Congress seems incapable of enforcing any fiscal discipline.Higher structural TGA levels needed for the Treasury.

Out of the Box #22: Higher for Longer, Yes. But Not What You Expect

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>A deal between the US/Israel and Saudi Arabia seems off the table after this weekend</li><li>Oil markets are physically tight still, but there are some signs of cracks in demand</li><li>Nat gas markets have started to rally, which is another issue for EUR, GBP and JPY markets</li></ul>

A deal between the US/Israel and Saudi Arabia seems off the table after this weekendOil markets are physically tight still, but there are some signs of cracks in demandNat gas markets have started to rally, which is another issue for EUR, GBP and JPY markets

Steno Signals #68: There is NOT enough buyers for bonds amidst all this

<ul><li>Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.</li><li>As we put pen to paper, history is unfolding in Israel, with plenty of shocking footage circulating online.</li><li>With Netanyahu declaring war and a growing mobilization, it appears that the worst of the bloodshed may be yet to come.</li></ul>

Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.As we put pen to paper, history is unfolding in Israel, with plenty of shocking footage circulating online.With Netanyahu declaring war and a growing mobilization, it appears that the worst of the bloodshed may be yet to come.

Positioning Watch: Who is caught in the Crossfire?

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.</li>
<li>It’s safe to say that energy is all everyone is talking about with the oil rally still going strong, but the trade might have more to give as positioning is not as exhausted as some people might tell you.</li>
<li>When you take into account the number of traders in the CFTC report, oil positioning is barely anything compared to history.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.
It’s safe to say that energy is all everyone is talking about with the oil rally still going strong, but the trade might have more to give as positioning is not as exhausted as some people might tell you.
When you take into account the number of traders in the CFTC report, oil positioning is barely anything compared to history.


Positioning Watch – Oil Longs Are Not as Big as You Think

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Inflation Came down fast across Europe, yet bond yields continued to rally. We think markets are wrong on yields even though Italy and France have zero appetite to sustainably lower their budget deficits.</li>
<li>We discuss falling consumer sentiment and the increasing parallel between current macro-consumer conditions and Q4 2018 when retail sales tumbled. Are we in for a rerun? </li>
<li>Though not the mother of all stock market indices, several indices have dropped below their 200-day moving average, while the equally weighted S&amp;P 500 Index has reversed all of this year’s gains. </li>
</ul>


Inflation Came down fast across Europe, yet bond yields continued to rally. We think markets are wrong on yields even though Italy and France have zero appetite to sustainably lower their budget deficits.
We discuss falling consumer sentiment and the increasing parallel between current macro-consumer conditions and Q4 2018 when retail sales tumbled. Are we in for a rerun? 
Though not the mother of all stock market indices, several indices have dropped below their 200-day moving average, while the equally weighted S&amp;P 500 Index has reversed all of this year’s gains. 


The Weekly Market Monitor – Immaculate Disinflation, Spiking Yields, and the Waiting Continues

United States

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years. 

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

Out of the Box #22: Higher for Longer, Yes. But Not What You Expect

Main points: The economic outlook is uncertain and Biden is spending like there is no tomorrow. Recession in 2024 remains our base case– The...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #68: There is NOT enough buyers for bonds amidst all this

A deal between the US/Israel and Saudi Arabia seems off the table after this weekend. Oil markets are physically tight still, but there are some...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Who is caught in the Crossfire?

Happy Saturday, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Oil Longs Are Not as Big as You Think

Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Immaculate Disinflation, Spiking Yields, and the Waiting Continues

Inflation is collapsing and even turned negative in the Netherlands. Yet, bond yields continue to spike, providing ample downside risk for equities.

Jeroen Blokland

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)