High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Equity Bottom-Up

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>For me, the most unexpected aspect of recent events has been that both bonds and stocks moved up together.</li><li>My expectation for this year was that equities do well.</li><li>But I thought they would eventually shake off bonds. Economic resilience (or in fact acceleration) would then force bond investors to chase equities. </li></ul>

For me, the most unexpected aspect of recent events has been that both bonds and stocks moved up together.My expectation for this year was that equities do well.But I thought they would eventually shake off bonds. Economic resilience (or in fact acceleration) would then force bond investors to chase equities. 

Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

<ul>
<li>Market participants are re-repricing risk, says iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.</li>
<li>Policymakers are in a tough spot where they need to combat inflation while also providing liquidity for the banking sector.</li>
<li>iShares are once again in the spotlight as market participants are Re-re pricing risk.</li>
</ul>


Market participants are re-repricing risk, says iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.
Policymakers are in a tough spot where they need to combat inflation while also providing liquidity for the banking sector.
iShares are once again in the spotlight as market participants are Re-re pricing risk.


TLT: Higher Rates For Longer Appears Less Likely Following The SVB Collapse

Founder, TPW Advisory

TPW Advisory

Founder

Independent Investment Advisory Boutique

TPW Advisory is an independent investment advisory boutique located in NYC offering asset allocation & portfolio strategy advice, white label research and global, multi asset ETF based model portfolio delivery services.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Trees don’t grow straight to the sky do they?</li><li>So why would one expect stocks to just keep soaring after one of the more aggressive 3 month moves in history, especially among non US DM or EAFE (All Star Charts notes EAFE doubled SPY performance since October).</li><li>The US has enjoyed the January trifecta as we wrote about last week which has a perfect track record of higher stocks a year out.</li></ul>

Trees don’t grow straight to the sky do they?So why would one expect stocks to just keep soaring after one of the more aggressive 3 month moves in history, especially among non US DM or EAFE (All Star Charts notes EAFE doubled SPY performance since October).The US has enjoyed the January trifecta as we wrote about last week which has a perfect track record of higher stocks a year out.

TPW Advisory Friday Musings: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

<ul>
<li>The one-sided downward movement in both equity and bond prices in 2022 was both unusual and expected.</li>
<li>The set-up for the next 12 to 18 months is favourable for bonds, both on the short and the long-end of the curve.</li>
<li>The one- sided downward movement was both unexpected and expected.</li>
</ul>


The one-sided downward movement in both equity and bond prices in 2022 was both unusual and expected.
The set-up for the next 12 to 18 months is favourable for bonds, both on the short and the long-end of the curve.
The one- sided downward movement was both unexpected and expected.


Where Is TLT ETF Headed In 2023 And Why Inflation Won't Be An Issue

Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Global macro and markets are a gigantic puzzle that will always fascinate investors and lure most to believe that in the end we can put all the pieces in the right place and find the Holy Grail of Investing.</li><li>The reality is different: we will always miss some pieces, and we will often be wrong.</li><li>The common trait of the best investors and hedge fund managers I can call friends is not having a macro crystal ball, but embracing and living by this simple principle: maximizing the odds (and not the ephemeral feeling of infallibility) of achieving good returns while taking predictable amounts of risk.</li></ul>

Global macro and markets are a gigantic puzzle that will always fascinate investors and lure most to believe that in the end we can put all the pieces in the right place and find the Holy Grail of Investing.The reality is different: we will always miss some pieces, and we will often be wrong.The common trait of the best investors and hedge fund managers I can call friends is not having a macro crystal ball, but embracing and living by this simple principle: maximizing the odds (and not the ephemeral feeling of infallibility) of achieving good returns while taking predictable amounts of risk.

On The Art Of Macro Portfolio Construction

United States

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years. 

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

A closer look at stock bond correlation

For me, the most unexpected aspect of recent events has been that both bonds and stocks moved up together. My expectation for this year was that...

Fallacy Alarm

TLT: Higher Rates For Longer Appears Less Likely Following The SVB Collapse

Policymakers are in a tough spot where they need to combat inflation while also providing liquidity for the banking sector.

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

TPW Advisory Friday Musings: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

Trees don’t grow straight to the sky do they? So why would one expect stocks to just keep soaring after one of the more aggressive 3 month moves in...

TPW Advisory

Where Is TLT ETF Headed In 2023 And Why Inflation Won't Be An Issue

The set-up for the next 12 to 18 months is favourable for bonds, both on the short and the long-end of the curve. The one- sided downward movement...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

On The Art Of Macro Portfolio Construction

Global macro and markets are a gigantic puzzle that will always fascinate investors and lure most to believe that in the end we can put all the...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)