Amareos

Ryan Shea

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Introduction</h2><p><em>HBO’s successful series Game of Thrones has the phrase “Winter is coming” as its key tag line. It is not meant to reference a seasonal cold spell lasting a few months, but something much more profound and disturbing for the human characters who inhabit this fictional world. Unfortunately, the same phrase has relevance for the real world we presently inhabit.</em></p><p><em>For the overwhelming majority of people, a Third World War is simply unimaginable (try broaching the subject in polite company</em>…</p>

IntroductionHBO’s successful series Game of Thrones has the phrase “Winter is coming” as its key tag line. It is not meant to reference a seasonal cold spell lasting a few months, but something much more profound and disturbing for the human characters who inhabit this fictional world. Unfortunately, the same phrase has relevance for the real world we presently inhabit.For the overwhelming majority of people, a Third World War is simply unimaginable (try broaching the subject in polite company…

The Market Sentimentalist - Winter Is Coming: Economic Pathways To World War III

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus, Aletheia Capital

Chris Roberts

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Technical Analysis

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF / Technical Analysis

<p>In September we issued an insight titled: <strong>US Interest Rates: Boiling a Frog. </strong>Our base case remains that the 35-year decline in US interest rates is over, and the risk is now for higher rates. In a historical context, the 2016 low in long-term US Bonds can be viewed as a massive overshoot and a rally back to 4.00-5.00% could be seen as a reversion to some sort of rates normalcy.</p><p>This year we have been waiting for the 10-year US T-Note to partially retrace the 2016 surge in rates. In September the decline in yield from the December 2016 high of 2.59% finally reached the 38-71% retracement support area for that advance, in where the correction should end.</p><p>The table below (featured in the earlier report) is constructed from various historical charts of long-term US interest rates that date back to the late 1700’s. Although we cannot vouch for the complete accuracy of the data, we believe it provides a decent guide to the length of secular yield declines.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/038/004/original/SK20171113%20US%20long%20term%20yield-%20secular%20interest%20rate%20decline%20since%201970.png?1510548001" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="38004"></figure><div class="content-highlight"><p style="text-align: center;">We are now recommending establishing a short position in the TLT US.</p></div>

In September we issued an insight titled: US Interest Rates: Boiling a Frog. Our base case remains that the 35-year decline in US interest rates is over, and the risk is now for higher rates. In a historical context, the 2016 low in long-term US Bonds can be viewed as a massive overshoot and a rally back to 4.00-5.00% could be seen as a reversion to some sort of rates normalcy.This year we have been waiting for the 10-year US T-Note to partially retrace the 2016 surge in rates. In September the decline in yield from the December 2016 high of 2.59% finally reached the 38-71% retracement support area for that advance, in where the correction should end.The table below (featured in the earlier report) is constructed from various historical charts of long-term US interest rates that date back to the late 1700’s. Although we cannot vouch for the complete accuracy of the data, we believe it provides a decent guide to the length of secular yield declines.We are now recommending establishing a short position in the TLT US.

Shorting the IShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US – USD124.10)

United States

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years. 

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

The Market Sentimentalist - Winter Is Coming: Economic Pathways To World War III

IntroductionHBO’s successful series Game of Thrones has the phrase “Winter is coming” as its key tag line. It is not meant to reference a seasonal...

Amareos

Shorting the IShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US – USD124.10)

In September we issued an insight titled: US Interest Rates: Boiling a Frog. Our base case remains that the 35-year decline in US interest rates is...

Chris Roberts

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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