Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Debt Capital Markets

Asia High Yield Bond Index / Debt Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>What has changed since our July ABM is that the ceasefire we carefully described did not hold, and oil has round-tripped roughly halfway back toward war-peak levels.</li>
<li>Fixed rate bonds that rely on discretionary spending should underperform floating rate bonds while the beneficiaries of the trade have shifted from energy exposure toward carry and short-duration positioning.</li>
<li>We remain positive on Asian credit fundamentals and, for those who must invest in fixed rate bonds, we list 9 bonds which we like at the time of this report</li>
</ul>


What has changed since our July ABM is that the ceasefire we carefully described did not hold, and oil has round-tripped roughly halfway back toward war-peak levels.
Fixed rate bonds that rely on discretionary spending should underperform floating rate bonds while the beneficiaries of the trade have shifted from energy exposure toward carry and short-duration positioning.
We remain positive on Asian credit fundamentals and, for those who must invest in fixed rate bonds, we list 9 bonds which we like at the time of this report


<ul>
<li>What has changed since our ABM in May is the vulnerable ceasefire, which President Trump called it over, and the partial unwind of the oil-driven war premium.  </li>
<li>The oil shock has partially unwound and growth data has held up but inflation and rates remain elevated for a different reason; a hawkish new Fed Chairman.</li>
<li>We maintain our bearish stance on fixed rate bonds on elevated and volatile oil prices which should result in elevated rates. We remain positive in Asian credit fundamentals</li>
</ul>


What has changed since our ABM in May is the vulnerable ceasefire, which President Trump called it over, and the partial unwind of the oil-driven war premium.  
The oil shock has partially unwound and growth data has held up but inflation and rates remain elevated for a different reason; a hawkish new Fed Chairman.
We maintain our bearish stance on fixed rate bonds on elevated and volatile oil prices which should result in elevated rates. We remain positive in Asian credit fundamentals


<ul>
<li>A spike in oil prices usually leads to a spike in credit spread of risky assets.</li>
<li>We expect rising oil prices to boost inflation worldwide. G-3 rates have been low and we expect rates to start increasing towards the second half of 2026.</li>
<li>Countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia should benefit from an oil spike while India, the Philippines, and Thailand could suffer from margin compression.</li>
</ul>


A spike in oil prices usually leads to a spike in credit spread of risky assets.
We expect rising oil prices to boost inflation worldwide. G-3 rates have been low and we expect rates to start increasing towards the second half of 2026.
Countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia should benefit from an oil spike while India, the Philippines, and Thailand could suffer from margin compression.


Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US and China have seen reduction in tariffs, with US tariffs on China now around 41%</li>
<li>The macro impact of this reduction includes potential growth for the full year and quarterly profile</li>
<li>Fiscal stimulus and monetary easing may need to be adjusted based on the current tariff situation</li>
</ul>
<p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>


US and China have seen reduction in tariffs, with US tariffs on China now around 41%
The macro impact of this reduction includes potential growth for the full year and quarterly profile
Fiscal stimulus and monetary easing may need to be adjusted based on the current tariff situation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Fixed Income: The US-China Détente: Implications for Asia

<ul>
<li>Inflation will remain sticky but we expect the recession headline to keep a lid on consumer spending which should also limit the possibility of a future rate hike.</li>
<li>We believe fixed rate bonds should be the instrument of choice toward the end of this year. </li>
<li>Rising default and a lack of growth in developed markets should also bode well for Asian US Dollar (USD) bonds.</li>
</ul>


Inflation will remain sticky but we expect the recession headline to keep a lid on consumer spending which should also limit the possibility of a future rate hike.
We believe fixed rate bonds should be the instrument of choice toward the end of this year. 
Rising default and a lack of growth in developed markets should also bode well for Asian US Dollar (USD) bonds.


Asian Bond Monitor: Asian Bonds for the Upcoming Recession

Singapore

iShares Barclays USD Asia High Yield Bond Index ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in Singapore. The Fund seeks to track the performance of the Bloomberg Barclays Capital USD Asia High Yield Bond Index.

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Asia High Yield Bond Index (AHYG SP)

Asian Bond Monitor: No Final Whistle

This report is not easy-to-digest.While we do not recommend investment in fixed rate Asian USD bonds in general, those who must stay invested...

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: No Oil Unwind (Yet)

Ceasefire vulnerability and oil price unwind post-ABM in May, with inflation and rates still elevated due to hawkish Fed Chairman. Bearish on...

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: Oil Shock 2.0

Rising oil prices will impact credit spreads of risky assets and inflation worldwide, with G-3 rates likely to increase in the second half of...

Bondcritic

Fixed Income: The US-China Détente: Implications for Asia

The potential U.S. recession has impacted smaller open economies reliant on exports, but recent positive news and tariff reduction measures are...

At Any Rate

Asian Bond Monitor: Asian Bonds for the Upcoming Recession

Inflation remains high but recession fears will limit consumer spending and future rate hikes. Fixed rate bonds and Asian USD bonds are...

Bondcritic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Bond Monitor: No Final Whistle

This report is not easy-to-digest.While we do not recommend investment in fixed rate Asian USD bonds in general, those who must stay invested...

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: No Oil Unwind (Yet)

​Ceasefire vulnerability and oil price unwind post-ABM in May, with inflation and rates still elevated due to hawkish Fed Chairman. Bearish on...

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: Oil Shock 2.0

​Rising oil prices will impact credit spreads of risky assets and inflation worldwide, with G-3 rates likely to increase in the second half of...

Bondcritic

Fixed Income: The US-China Détente: Implications for Asia

The potential U.S. recession has impacted smaller open economies reliant on exports, but recent positive news and tariff reduction measures are...

At Any Rate

Asian Bond Monitor: Asian Bonds for the Upcoming Recession

​Inflation remains high but recession fears will limit consumer spending and future rate hikes. Fixed rate bonds and Asian USD bonds are...

Bondcritic

Ceasefire vulnerability and oil price unwind post-ABM in May, with inflation and rates still elevated due to hawkish Fed Chairman. Bearish on...

Rising oil prices will impact credit spreads of risky assets and inflation worldwide, with G-3 rates likely to increase in the second half of...

Inflation remains high but recession fears will limit consumer spending and future rate hikes. Fixed rate bonds and Asian USD bonds are...