Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

IShares Bitcoin Trust ETF / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin has been selling off since early October 2025 and reached a -35% loss around November 20, then bounced back, the rally is currently ongoing.</li>
<li>Our focus is always short-term and in this insight we will try to analyze how far the current BTC-USD spot rally can go before a new sell-off begins.</li>
<li>The alternate hypothesis is that the current downturn is merely a sharp, tactical correction within a larger secular bull market. Under this interpretation, the pullback could be a buying opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Bitcoin has been selling off since early October 2025 and reached a -35% loss around November 20, then bounced back, the rally is currently ongoing.
Our focus is always short-term and in this insight we will try to analyze how far the current BTC-USD spot rally can go before a new sell-off begins.
The alternate hypothesis is that the current downturn is merely a sharp, tactical correction within a larger secular bull market. Under this interpretation, the pullback could be a buying opportunity.


Bitcoin Tactical Outlook After The -35% Drop

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

IShares Bitcoin Trust ETF / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin has seen a historic price decline since October.  The fear gauge is higher than at any time in its history, and technical indicators show further downside is likely.</li>
<li>The bitcoin ecosystem is highly leveraged and has seen miners and related single-stock ETFs fall dramatically.  Bitcoin volatility remains below historical levels, suggesting further selling is likely.</li>
<li>Bitcoin price is highly dependent on monetary conditions, which indicate that easing will end by 1Q 2027. Gold is supported by continuing higher inflation expectations and, hence, the price divergence.</li>
</ul>


Bitcoin has seen a historic price decline since October.  The fear gauge is higher than at any time in its history, and technical indicators show further downside is likely.
The bitcoin ecosystem is highly leveraged and has seen miners and related single-stock ETFs fall dramatically.  Bitcoin volatility remains below historical levels, suggesting further selling is likely.
Bitcoin price is highly dependent on monetary conditions, which indicate that easing will end by 1Q 2027. Gold is supported by continuing higher inflation expectations and, hence, the price divergence.


Bitcoin: HOW TO LOSE MONEY IN A BULL MARKET!!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

IShares Bitcoin Trust ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>Short-Term support on the SPX is at 6100-6150, 6028-6059, and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785.</li>
<li>We view any pullbacks to the these supports as buying opportunities, though we do not expect there to be another test of 5700-5785 any time soon.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
Short-Term support on the SPX is at 6100-6150, 6028-6059, and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785.
We view any pullbacks to the these supports as buying opportunities, though we do not expect there to be another test of 5700-5785 any time soon.


Bitcoin Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Many Areas Breaking Out or Bottoming: XLY, XME, KRE ++

Podcast series by Dean Curnutt, Alpha Exchange

Alpha Exchange

Podcast series by Dean Curnutt

The Alpha Exchange is a podcast series launched by Dean Curnutt to explore topics in financial markets, risk management and capital allocation in the alternatives industry. Our in depth discussions with highly established industry professionals seek to uncover the nuanced and complex interactions between economic, monetary, financial, regulatory and geopolitical sources of risk. We aim to learn from the perspective our guests can bring with respect to the history of financial and business cycles, promoting a better understanding among listeners as to how prior periods provide important context to present day dynamics. The “price of risk” is an important topic. Here we engage experts in their assessment of risk premium levels in the context of uncertainty. Is the level of compensation attractive? Because Central Banks have played so important a role in markets post crisis, our discussions sometimes aim to better understand the evolution of monetary policy and the degree to which the real and financial economy will be impacted. An especially important area of focus is on derivative products and how they interact with risk taking and carry dynamics. Our conversations seek to enlighten listeners, for example, as to the factors that promoted the February melt-down of the VIX complex. We do NOT ask our guests for their political opinions. We seek a better understanding of the market impact of regulatory change, election outcomes and events of geopolitical consequence. Our discussions cover markets from a macro perspective with an assessment of risk and opportunity across asset classes. Within equity markets, we may explore the relative attractiveness of sectors but will NOT discuss single stocks.

<ul><li>Realize Volatility is a cause, not an effect, and can lead to inaction</li><li>Options on iBit, the Bitcoin ETF, are becoming a critical industry risk management tool</li><li>IBIT options have seen stunning volumes and substantial open interest, leading to price discovery and a growing liquidity ecosystem</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Realize Volatility is a cause, not an effect, and can lead to inactionOptions on iBit, the Bitcoin ETF, are becoming a critical industry risk management toolIBIT options have seen stunning volumes and substantial open interest, leading to price discovery and a growing liquidity ecosystemThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

China Bluechemical Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Sentiment has started to wobble in the AI mega cap trade</li>
<li>Risk is elevated as bearish divergences  and rolling tops abound</li>
<li>No top yet signalled in the major US indices -  so what to do in this environment </li>
</ul>


Sentiment has started to wobble in the AI mega cap trade
Risk is elevated as bearish divergences  and rolling tops abound
No top yet signalled in the major US indices -  so what to do in this environment 


Overview #40 – Trouble in Paradise: Cracks in the AI Trade

United States

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is an exchange-traded fund domiciled in the USA. The investment objective is to reflect the performance of spot bitcoin.

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IShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT US)

Bitcoin Tactical Outlook After The -35% Drop

Bitcoin experienced a -35% loss in Oct-Nov 2025 (it's currently in a rebound rally). We try to determine how long the current uptrend can continue...

Nico Rosti

Bitcoin: HOW TO LOSE MONEY IN A BULL MARKET!!

Bitcoin has seen a historic price decline since October. The fear gauge is higher than at any time in its history, and technical indicators show...

David Mudd

Bitcoin Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Many Areas Breaking Out or Bottoming: XLY, XME, KRE ++

Bitcoin Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Many Areas Breaking Out or Bottoming $XLY $XME $KRE $KBE $JETS $ITB $XBI $TAN...

Vermilion Research

IBIT…the Hottest Option on the Planet

Volatility in the market is a leading factor that can cause inaction, but options on iBit, the Bitcoin ETF, are becoming a critical risk management...

Alpha Exchange

Overview #40 – Trouble in Paradise: Cracks in the AI Trade

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the recent negative newsflow in the AI sector and potential...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bitcoin Tactical Outlook After The -35% Drop

​Bitcoin experienced a -35% loss in Oct-Nov 2025 (it's currently in a rebound rally). We try to determine how long the current uptrend can continue...

Nico Rosti

Bitcoin: HOW TO LOSE MONEY IN A BULL MARKET!!

Bitcoin has seen a historic price decline since October. The fear gauge is higher than at any time in its history, and technical indicators show...

David Mudd

Bitcoin Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Many Areas Breaking Out or Bottoming: XLY, XME, KRE ++

Bitcoin Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Many Areas Breaking Out or Bottoming $XLY $XME $KRE $KBE $JETS $ITB $XBI $TAN...

Vermilion Research

IBIT…the Hottest Option on the Planet

Volatility in the market is a leading factor that can cause inaction, but options on iBit, the Bitcoin ETF, are becoming a critical risk management...

Alpha Exchange

Overview #40 – Trouble in Paradise: Cracks in the AI Trade

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the recent negative newsflow in the AI sector and potential...

Rikki Malik

Bitcoin experienced a -35% loss in Oct-Nov 2025 (it's currently in a rebound rally). We try to determine how long the current uptrend can continue...