Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Guotai Junan Securities   / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities (H) (6837 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:166:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities (A) (600837 CH)</a> shares will stop trading after 5 February following the merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>There will be small buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a> at the close on 5 February and there should be more buying in the A-shares and H-shares in March.</li>
<li>There will also be a stock added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> to bring the number of index constituents back to 300.</li>
</ul>



Haitong Securities (H) (6837 HK) and Haitong Securities (A) (600837 CH) shares will stop trading after 5 February following the merger with Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK). 
There will be small buying in Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) at the close on 5 February and there should be more buying in the A-shares and H-shares in March.
There will also be a stock added to the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) to bring the number of index constituents back to 300.


Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner

Event-Driven

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foshan-haitian-flavouring-food-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15577:1" rel="noopener">Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food (603288 CH)</a> has filed for a listing on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> and reports indicate that the raise will be at least US$1.5bn.</li>
<li>In line with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (300 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-f-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44093:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (6936 HK)</a> H-share listings, the discount on the H-shares could be in the 20-25% range.</li>
<li>The stock will not get Fast Entry to any indices but there should be inclusions at subsequent rebalances, especially once the cornerstone investor lock-up expires.</li>
</ul>



Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food (603288 CH) has filed for a listing on the HKEX (388 HK) and reports indicate that the raise will be at least US$1.5bn.
In line with the Midea Group (300 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) H-share listings, the discount on the H-shares could be in the 20-25% range.
The stock will not get Fast Entry to any indices but there should be inclusions at subsequent rebalances, especially once the cornerstone investor lock-up expires.


Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a> has filed for a listing on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> and reports indicate that the raise will be at least US$2bn.</li>
<li>In line with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (300 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-f-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44093:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (6936 HK)</a> H-share listings, the discount on the H-shares could be in the 20-25% range.</li>
<li>There will be no Fast Entry in any indices but there will be index inclusions in multiple indices if the raise is larger or once the cornerstone investor lock-up ends.</li>
</ul>



Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) has filed for a listing on the HKEX (388 HK) and reports indicate that the raise will be at least US$2bn.
In line with the Midea Group (300 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) H-share listings, the discount on the H-shares could be in the 20-25% range.
There will be no Fast Entry in any indices but there will be index inclusions in multiple indices if the raise is larger or once the cornerstone investor lock-up ends.


Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma (600276 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Gold is historically a strong January performer, rising 65% of the time. Nifty declines 70% of the time in January with all January’s since 2019 negative.</li>
<li>Wide gap in Kospi vs Nikkei implied vol when viewed in light of their respective price performances over the past 1 and 3 months.</li>
<li>Most markets typically see peak volatility in the first week of the month with prices typically trading heavy in the 2nd half of the month.</li>
</ul>


Gold is historically a strong January performer, rising 65% of the time. Nifty declines 70% of the time in January with all January’s since 2019 negative.
Wide gap in Kospi vs Nikkei implied vol when viewed in light of their respective price performances over the past 1 and 3 months.
Most markets typically see peak volatility in the first week of the month with prices typically trading heavy in the 2nd half of the month.


EQD | Asia January Vol Roadmap:    Outsized Moves, Outsized Volatility

InnoScience Suzhou Technology / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innoscience-suzhou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44185:1" rel="noopener">InnoScience Suzhou Technology (2577 HK)</a> has priced its IPO at HK$30.86/share, the low end of the range. Over half the shares have been allotted to cornerstone investors.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innoscience-suzhou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44185:1" rel="noopener">InnoScience Suzhou Technology (2577 HK)</a> should be added to the HSCI in March and will be added to Southbound Stock Connect early March.</li>
<li>Inclusion in global indices will take place in 2026 and there will be supply in mid- and late-2025 following lock-up expiries.</li>
</ul>



InnoScience Suzhou Technology (2577 HK) has priced its IPO at HK$30.86/share, the low end of the range. Over half the shares have been allotted to cornerstone investors.

InnoScience Suzhou Technology (2577 HK) should be added to the HSCI in March and will be added to Southbound Stock Connect early March.
Inclusion in global indices will take place in 2026 and there will be supply in mid- and late-2025 following lock-up expiries.


InnoScience (2577 HK): Prices at Low End & Lists Today; Index Inclusion Timeline

China

iShares China Large-Cap ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the FTSE China 50 Index, investing in large cap stocks. Its investments are focused in the financial, oil and gas, technology and communications sectors. The ETF uses a representative sampling indexing strategy, investing at least 90% of its assets in the securities of the underlying index.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)

Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner

Haitong Sec stops trading after 5 Feb. There will be passive flows for Guotai Junan in Feb and index inclusions in March. There will be ad hoc...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Asia January Vol Roadmap: Outsized Moves, Outsized Volatility

Historically, gold performs well in January while Nifty tends to decline. Kospi and Nikkei have diverged in price but not implied vol. Most...

John Ley

InnoScience (2577 HK): Prices at Low End & Lists Today; Index Inclusion Timeline

InnoScience raised US$180m in its IPO, valuing the company at US$3.5bn and the H-shares at US$1.95bn. Float will be 2-4% till Dec25, so no chance...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner

Haitong Sec stops trading after 5 Feb. There will be passive flows for Guotai Junan in Feb and index inclusions in March. There will be ad hoc...

Brian Freitas

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

Foshan Haitian has filed an application proof for an HKEX listing. Reports indicate a US$1.5bn raise. There will be no index Fast Entry but...

Brian Freitas

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma (600276 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

Jiangsu Hengrui has filed an application proof for an HKEX listing. Reports indicate a US$2bn raise. There will be no index Fast Entry but...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Asia January Vol Roadmap: Outsized Moves, Outsized Volatility

​Historically, gold performs well in January while Nifty tends to decline. Kospi and Nikkei have diverged in price but not implied vol. Most...

John Ley

InnoScience (2577 HK): Prices at Low End & Lists Today; Index Inclusion Timeline

InnoScience raised US$180m in its IPO, valuing the company at US$3.5bn and the H-shares at US$1.95bn. Float will be 2-4% till Dec25, so no chance...

Brian Freitas

Historically, gold performs well in January while Nifty tends to decline. Kospi and Nikkei have diverged in price but not implied vol. Most...