Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Average active fund returns of 6.75% match the iShares Asia Ex-Japan benchmark, with 50.8% of funds outperforming.</li>
<li>Technology Sector Again Drives Returns: Taiwan Technology contributes the most to absolute returns, aided by China &amp; HK and India positions.</li>
<li>Key Stock Overweights Pay Off: Overweights in SK Hynix, Tencent Holdings and HDFC Bank helped offset the drag from Cash holdings over the quarter.</li>
</ul>


Average active fund returns of 6.75% match the iShares Asia Ex-Japan benchmark, with 50.8% of funds outperforming.
Technology Sector Again Drives Returns: Taiwan Technology contributes the most to absolute returns, aided by China &amp; HK and India positions.
Key Stock Overweights Pay Off: Overweights in SK Hynix, Tencent Holdings and HDFC Bank helped offset the drag from Cash holdings over the quarter.


Active Asia Ex-Japan Q2 Performance Review:  Taiwan Tech Drives Returns, but Indonesia Costly

<ul>
<li>South Korean Pivot:  Asia Ex-Japan investors move to overweight South Korea for the first time in our history, SK Hynix and Kia Corp among the beneficiaries. </li>
<li>India Fatigue: Despite India’s outperformance and rising fund weights, managers show caution, with nearly 2/3rds of funds underweight the benchmark.</li>
<li>China All-Time Lows: China &amp; HK fund weights have dropped significantly from 53.5% in 2020 to 34.8% today, just above a 13-year low, signaling a critical juncture for re-evaluation.</li>
</ul>


South Korean Pivot:  Asia Ex-Japan investors move to overweight South Korea for the first time in our history, SK Hynix and Kia Corp among the beneficiaries. 
India Fatigue: Despite India’s outperformance and rising fund weights, managers show caution, with nearly 2/3rds of funds underweight the benchmark.
China All-Time Lows: China &amp; HK fund weights have dropped significantly from 53.5% in 2020 to 34.8% today, just above a 13-year low, signaling a critical juncture for re-evaluation.


Active Asia Ex-Japan Funds: Top-Down Country Insights

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In 2022 (the first year with the RCEP fully operational), ASEAN's bilateral trade deficit with China nearly doubled to US$163bn, while China's surpluses with Japan and Korea shrank. </li>
<li>RCEP entailed the reduction in tariffs, but non-tariff barriers (China's primary form of protection for its economy) remained unaffected. Ironically, China has seen big unilateral gains from implementation of RCEP. </li>
<li>The imposition of higher US tariffs since 2019, and tighter export controls since 2022, has shrunk China's bilateral trade surplus with the US, while boosting the rest of Asia's surpluses. </li>
</ul>


In 2022 (the first year with the RCEP fully operational), ASEAN's bilateral trade deficit with China nearly doubled to US$163bn, while China's surpluses with Japan and Korea shrank. 
RCEP entailed the reduction in tariffs, but non-tariff barriers (China's primary form of protection for its economy) remained unaffected. Ironically, China has seen big unilateral gains from implementation of RCEP. 
The imposition of higher US tariffs since 2019, and tighter export controls since 2022, has shrunk China's bilateral trade surplus with the US, while boosting the rest of Asia's surpluses. 


RCEP Is Benefitting China, but Not ASEAN; Latter Gains US Market-Share

<div>
<p>Not all of the stocks in the benchmark MSCI Asia Ex-Japan index are well liked by active fund managers in the region.  In fact, there a large number of stocks that are avoided by the majority of funds.  In this analysis, we screen for these unloved stocks.</p>
<p>We filter our aggregated stock holdings data across the Asia Ex-Japan region as follows:</p>
</div><div><ol>
<li>Average Active Fund Weight &lt; I Shares MSCI Asia Ex-Japan<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-cntry-asa-jpn-idx-fnd-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:416:1" rel="noopener"></a> ETF Weight (i.e net underweight)</li>
<li>Percentage of Funds Invested &lt; 2% (i.e less than 2% of funds hold each stock).</li>
</ol></div><div>
<p>The list is headed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (NIO US)</a> , a stock owned by just 1% of active Asia Ex-Japan funds at a net underweight of -0.54%.  In total, 577 out of the 1086 stocks in the benchmark meet this criteria.</p>
<p>Does it pay to avoid unloved stocks?  We have backtested a portfolio of Asia Ex-Japan Unloved stocks based on the screening criteria above, rebalanced monthly going back to 2011 and capped at 50 stocks. The performance suggests that Unloved stocks are best avoided, with consistent underperformance vs the I-Shares Asia Ex-Japan ETF since 2011. </p>
<p><em>The analysis uses our Asia Ex-Japan fund data, comprising 97 active long-only Asia Ex-Japan funds with a combined AUM of $70bn.</em></p>
</div>


Not all of the stocks in the benchmark MSCI Asia Ex-Japan index are well liked by active fund managers in the region.  In fact, there a large number of stocks that are avoided by the majority of funds.  In this analysis, we screen for these unloved stocks.
We filter our aggregated stock holdings data across the Asia Ex-Japan region as follows:

Average Active Fund Weight &lt; I Shares MSCI Asia Ex-Japan ETF Weight (i.e net underweight)
Percentage of Funds Invested &lt; 2% (i.e less than 2% of funds hold each stock).

The list is headed by NIO Inc (NIO US) , a stock owned by just 1% of active Asia Ex-Japan funds at a net underweight of -0.54%.  In total, 577 out of the 1086 stocks in the benchmark meet this criteria.
Does it pay to avoid unloved stocks?  We have backtested a portfolio of Asia Ex-Japan Unloved stocks based on the screening criteria above, rebalanced monthly going back to 2011 and capped at 50 stocks. The performance suggests that Unloved stocks are best avoided, with consistent underperformance vs the I-Shares Asia Ex-Japan ETF since 2011. 
The analysis uses our Asia Ex-Japan fund data, comprising 97 active long-only Asia Ex-Japan funds with a combined AUM of $70bn.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Allocations in Asian Financials stocks have fallen to all-time lows in Asia Ex-Japan active portfolios this year.</li>
<li>Fund managers move to underweight following $3bn in net outflows.</li>
<li>Managers exit ASEAN banks, weights drop in China banks. </li>
<li>On a stock level, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)</a> ,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a> (-7.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> are the hardest hit.</li>
</ul>


Allocations in Asian Financials stocks have fallen to all-time lows in Asia Ex-Japan active portfolios this year.
Fund managers move to underweight following $3bn in net outflows.
Managers exit ASEAN banks, weights drop in China banks. 
On a stock level, ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN) ,  Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) (-7.2%) and Indusind Bank (IIB IN) are the hardest hit.


United States

iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex-Japan ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the  price and yield performance of the MSCI All Country Asia ex-Japan Index. The MSCI All Country Asia ex-Japan Index offers exposure to stocks from Asian countries excluding Japan.

iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex-Japan ETF (AAXJ US)

iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex-Japan ETF

iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex-Japan ETF (AAXJ US)

Active Asia Ex-Japan Q2 Performance Review: Taiwan Tech Drives Returns, but Indonesia Costly

Average active fund returns of 6.75% match the iShares Asia Ex-Japan benchmark, with 50.8% of funds outperforming on the quarter.

Steven Holden

Active Asia Ex-Japan Funds: Top-Down Country Insights

Asia Ex-Japan investors move to overweight South Korea, increase underweight to India, whilst China allocations are at their lowest levels in history.

Steven Holden

Asia's Unloved Stocks

Many stocks in the benchmark MSCI Asia Ex-Japan index are largely avoided by active fund managers. In this analysis, we discover the stocks that...

Steven Holden

Asia Ex-Japan Financials: Long Drop

Allocations in Financial stocks drop to all-time lows in Asia Ex-Japan active funds. Financials now key underweight holding, led by selling in the...

Steven Holden

Active Asia Ex-Japan Q2 Performance Review: Taiwan Tech Drives Returns, but Indonesia Costly

Average active fund returns of 6.75% match the iShares Asia Ex-Japan benchmark, with 50.8% of funds outperforming on the quarter.

Steven Holden

Active Asia Ex-Japan Funds: Top-Down Country Insights

Asia Ex-Japan investors move to overweight South Korea, increase underweight to India, whilst China allocations are at their lowest levels in history.

Steven Holden

RCEP Is Benefitting China, but Not ASEAN; Latter Gains US Market-Share

ASEAN's trade deficit with China nearly doubled in 2022 (1st year with RCEP implemented), as China's NTBs trumped tariff cuts. But China's surplus...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Asia's Unloved Stocks

Many stocks in the benchmark MSCI Asia Ex-Japan index are largely avoided by active fund managers. In this analysis, we discover the stocks that...

Steven Holden

Asia Ex-Japan Financials: Long Drop

Allocations in Financial stocks drop to all-time lows in Asia Ex-Japan active funds. Financials now key underweight holding, led by selling in the...

Steven Holden