Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>US President Donald Trump has officially withdrawn US from the TPP agreement. This wave of American isolationism is in stark contrast to the openness projected by China in recent weeks; China is poised to become increasingly influential in Asia.</li><li>While existing TPP members can forge ahead and implement some sort of a TPP-lite deal without the US, countries may not be willing to open up politically sensitive sectors without commensurate economic returns that is access to the large US market.</li><li>Export-oriented Asian economies could find it pragmatic and beneficial to establish closer economic ties with China and accept closer geostrategic relations too. Already, talks of accelerating the RCEP and even inviting China to participate in the TPP have begun.</li></ul>

US President Donald Trump has officially withdrawn US from the TPP agreement. This wave of American isolationism is in stark contrast to the openness projected by China in recent weeks; China is poised to become increasingly influential in Asia.While existing TPP members can forge ahead and implement some sort of a TPP-lite deal without the US, countries may not be willing to open up politically sensitive sectors without commensurate economic returns that is access to the large US market.Export-oriented Asian economies could find it pragmatic and beneficial to establish closer economic ties with China and accept closer geostrategic relations too. Already, talks of accelerating the RCEP and even inviting China to participate in the TPP have begun.

Asian Economic Integration Headed in a New Direction

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>During my three years as a Trump executive certain insights to his style could be clues to attitudes that will inform his Asian trade policy moves now.</li><li>Trump is a counter-puncher who does not attack per se but responds relentlessly to challenges quickly as we have already seen.</li><li>His ideology is straight forward: Negotiate hard, use the media as your hammer, make the best deal you can, shake hands and proceed to the next deal.</li></ul>

During my three years as a Trump executive certain insights to his style could be clues to attitudes that will inform his Asian trade policy moves now.Trump is a counter-puncher who does not attack per se but responds relentlessly to challenges quickly as we have already seen.His ideology is straight forward: Negotiate hard, use the media as your hammer, make the best deal you can, shake hands and proceed to the next deal.

Trump in Asia: A Guide to the Perplexed: An Insider's View During the First 100 Days

<ul><li>A recovery in global demand led by the G3 advanced economies have fed into export upturns in trade-focused East Asian economies. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong have seen the renewed vigour in global trade leading to more robust growth.</li><li>Furthermore, other Asian countries, such as those in Southeast Asia, will also see economic expansion being underpinned by an export upswing, chiefly in electronics and other tech components.</li></ul>

A recovery in global demand led by the G3 advanced economies have fed into export upturns in trade-focused East Asian economies. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong have seen the renewed vigour in global trade leading to more robust growth.Furthermore, other Asian countries, such as those in Southeast Asia, will also see economic expansion being underpinned by an export upswing, chiefly in electronics and other tech components.

Trade Intensity Leading to Asian Expansion

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>The apparent stability of the Chinese economy leaving 2016 is mainly illusory, as Beijing now faces an increasingly hard struggle to maintain the level of stimulus necessary to prevent the fragile financing structures which underpin the very high levels of corporate debt in China, from starting to unravel on the back of capital outflows. The key additional element for 2017 is the impact of a potential conflict over trade with the incoming US administration, firstly in reducing the trade surplus…</p>

The apparent stability of the Chinese economy leaving 2016 is mainly illusory, as Beijing now faces an increasingly hard struggle to maintain the level of stimulus necessary to prevent the fragile financing structures which underpin the very high levels of corporate debt in China, from starting to unravel on the back of capital outflows. The key additional element for 2017 is the impact of a potential conflict over trade with the incoming US administration, firstly in reducing the trade surplus…

China: Recent Corporate Improvement an Illusion Without Reform (Part 2 of 7)

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

<p>Despite President Xi's recent pronouncements at Davos and elsewhere, China is unlikely to become a leader of the world in terms of free trade. Without democracy and political reform, its pitch lacks credibility.</p>

Despite President Xi's recent pronouncements at Davos and elsewhere, China is unlikely to become a leader of the world in terms of free trade. Without democracy and political reform, its pitch lacks credibility.

China

iShares MSCI China ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks to track the performance of the MSCI China Index. The Index is a free float adjusted market cap weighted index designed to measure the performance of equity securities in the top 85% in market cap of Chinese equity markets, as represented by the A-Shares, H-Shares, B-Shares, Red Chips, & P-Chips.

iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI US)

Asian Economic Integration Headed in a New Direction

US President Donald Trump has officially withdrawn US from the TPP agreement. This wave of American isolationism is in stark contrast to the...

Jason Tan

Trump in Asia: A Guide to the Perplexed: An Insider's View During the First 100 Days

During my three years as a Trump executive certain insights to his style could be clues to attitudes that will inform his Asian trade policy moves...

Howard J Klein

Trade Intensity Leading to Asian Expansion

A recovery in global demand led by the G3 advanced economies have fed into export upturns in trade-focused East Asian economies. Japan, South...

Jason Tan

China: Recent Corporate Improvement an Illusion Without Reform (Part 2 of 7)

The apparent stability of the Chinese economy leaving 2016 is mainly illusory, as Beijing now faces an increasingly hard struggle to maintain the...

John-Paul Smith

China as a Beacon of Free Trade?

Despite President Xi's recent pronouncements at Davos and elsewhere, China is unlikely to become a leader of the world in terms of free trade....

Bixmoor