Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI China ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>Short-Term supports on the SPX include the 20-day MA (currently 6233), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Buy pullbacks to these areas.</li>
<li>SPX has not closed below its 20-day MA for two months, but even when it does, all we would expect to happen is for a new, less-steep uptrend to form.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
Short-Term supports on the SPX include the 20-day MA (currently 6233), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Buy pullbacks to these areas.
SPX has not closed below its 20-day MA for two months, but even when it does, all we would expect to happen is for a new, less-steep uptrend to form.


More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Monitoring Rotations: Miners, Retail, Lithium, China

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Amid the gloom of China’s <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2023-08-15/china-cuts-key-rate-by-most-since-2020-as-economic-woes-deepen-102093323.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">economic slowdown</a>, there are some bright spots. A new data series released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday showed that in the first seven months of the year, consumer spending on services like education and leisure rose at almost triple the pace of overall retail sales.</li><li>Retail sales of services jumped 20.3% year-on-year in the January to July period compared with 7.3% growth for overall retail sales, NBS data show.</li><li>The bureau did not provide a monetary amount for retail sales of services and did not provide a breakdown of growth by month, but cumulative growth data will be published from now on, NBS spokesperson Fu Linghui said at a press briefing on Tuesday.</li></ul>

Amid the gloom of China’s economic slowdown, there are some bright spots. A new data series released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday showed that in the first seven months of the year, consumer spending on services like education and leisure rose at almost triple the pace of overall retail sales.Retail sales of services jumped 20.3% year-on-year in the January to July period compared with 7.3% growth for overall retail sales, NBS data show.The bureau did not provide a monetary amount for retail sales of services and did not provide a breakdown of growth by month, but cumulative growth data will be published from now on, NBS spokesperson Fu Linghui said at a press briefing on Tuesday.

New Indicator Shows China’s Consumers Are Spending — on Services

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>China has 'won' the first phase of the trade war, with exports up 5%YoY and imports down 1%YoY in Jan-Oct'25 despite an appreciating RMB and high US tariffs (now stabilised). </li>
<li>FAI has declined YoY since Jun'25, declining 12.5%YoY in Oct'25, and severe PPI deflation has persisted for 37 months. Declining imports widened the 12m rolling-sum trade surplus to US$1.17trn. </li>
<li>Stagnant FX reserves show net capital and service/income outflows of US$825bn in Jan-Oct'25. Domestic vulnerabilities, however, are being papered over by the trade truce with the US. Bullish for China.</li>
</ul>


China has 'won' the first phase of the trade war, with exports up 5%YoY and imports down 1%YoY in Jan-Oct'25 despite an appreciating RMB and high US tariffs (now stabilised). 
FAI has declined YoY since Jun'25, declining 12.5%YoY in Oct'25, and severe PPI deflation has persisted for 37 months. Declining imports widened the 12m rolling-sum trade surplus to US$1.17trn. 
Stagnant FX reserves show net capital and service/income outflows of US$825bn in Jan-Oct'25. Domestic vulnerabilities, however, are being papered over by the trade truce with the US. Bullish for China.


China: Winning the Trade War While Still Imploding Domestically

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> has surged 33.5% over the past 30 days, with its spot price outpacing the slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money.</li>
<li>The current concentration of in-the-money calls hints at active trading and potential strike adjustments ahead, amplified by upcoming events like the 19 March earnings.</li>
<li>This analysis features a novel animated chart of option open interest distribution offering a dynamic visual of market behavior.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) has surged 33.5% over the past 30 days, with its spot price outpacing the slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money.
The current concentration of in-the-money calls hints at active trading and potential strike adjustments ahead, amplified by upcoming events like the 19 March earnings.
This analysis features a novel animated chart of option open interest distribution offering a dynamic visual of market behavior.


Tencent (700 HK) - Surging Price, Strikes, and Volatility. A Novel Look with an Animated Chart

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China &amp; HK allocations among Global funds have hit new lows, with 25.5% of funds avoiding the region entirely and a record 79.6% underweight versus the benchmark.</li>
<li>In the six months leading up to recent stimulus measures, another 5.4% of funds fully exited their China &amp; HK exposure.</li>
<li>Tencent and Alibaba are well below their 2020 highs, while AIA Group ownership moved lower and China Construction Bank continues its long-term decline</li>
</ul>


China &amp; HK allocations among Global funds have hit new lows, with 25.5% of funds avoiding the region entirely and a record 79.6% underweight versus the benchmark.
In the six months leading up to recent stimulus measures, another 5.4% of funds fully exited their China &amp; HK exposure.
Tencent and Alibaba are well below their 2020 highs, while AIA Group ownership moved lower and China Construction Bank continues its long-term decline


China:  Record Bearish Positioning Ahead of Stimulus

China

iShares MSCI China ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks to track the performance of the MSCI China Index. The Index is a free float adjusted market cap weighted index designed to measure the performance of equity securities in the top 85% in market cap of Chinese equity markets, as represented by the A-Shares, H-Shares, B-Shares, Red Chips, & P-Chips.

iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI US)

More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Monitoring Rotations: Miners, Retail, Lithium, China

More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ $IWM. Monitoring Rotations: Utilities $XLU, Real Estate $XLRE, Miners $XME $GDX,...

Vermilion Research

New Indicator Shows China’s Consumers Are Spending — on Services

Amid the gloom of China’s economic slowdown, there are some bright spots. A new data series released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on...

Caixin Global

China: Winning the Trade War While Still Imploding Domestically

China's record trade surplus, despite stronger RMB, shows China has won 1st phase of the trade war. Vulnerabilities (big net capital outflows,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Tencent (700 HK) - Surging Price, Strikes, and Volatility. A Novel Look with an Animated Chart

Tencent's stock surge has led to a slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money. A novel...

Gaudenz Schneider

China: Record Bearish Positioning Ahead of Stimulus

China & HK allocations among Global funds have hit new lows, with 25.5% of funds avoiding the region entirely and a record 79.6% underweight versus...

Steven Holden

More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Monitoring Rotations: Miners, Retail, Lithium, China

More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ $IWM. Monitoring Rotations: Utilities $XLU, Real Estate $XLRE, Miners $XME $GDX,...

Vermilion Research

New Indicator Shows China’s Consumers Are Spending — on Services

Amid the gloom of China’s economic slowdown, there are some bright spots. A new data series released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on...

Caixin Global

China: Winning the Trade War While Still Imploding Domestically

​China's record trade surplus, despite stronger RMB, shows China has won 1st phase of the trade war. Vulnerabilities (big net capital outflows,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Tencent (700 HK) - Surging Price, Strikes, and Volatility. A Novel Look with an Animated Chart

​Tencent's stock surge has led to a slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money. A novel...

Gaudenz Schneider

China: Record Bearish Positioning Ahead of Stimulus

China & HK allocations among Global funds have hit new lows, with 25.5% of funds avoiding the region entirely and a record 79.6% underweight versus...

Steven Holden

China's record trade surplus, despite stronger RMB, shows China has won 1st phase of the trade war. Vulnerabilities (big net capital outflows,...

Tencent's stock surge has led to a slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money. A novel...