Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX (up from 6480-6520), $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold.</li>
<li>Just last week (1/6/26 Compass) we discussed the many breakouts (most notably the Russell 2000) which led us to believe immediate upside was ahead. The breakouts just keep coming.</li>
<li>Latest breakouts include SPX, space exploration (ARKX), autonomous/robotics (ARKQ), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), retail (XRT), homebuilders (ITB, XHB), small-cap growth (IWO), quantum (QTUM), China (MCHI), and Staples (XLP).</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX (up from 6480-6520), $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold.
Just last week (1/6/26 Compass) we discussed the many breakouts (most notably the Russell 2000) which led us to believe immediate upside was ahead. The breakouts just keep coming.
Latest breakouts include SPX, space exploration (ARKX), autonomous/robotics (ARKQ), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), retail (XRT), homebuilders (ITB, XHB), small-cap growth (IWO), quantum (QTUM), China (MCHI), and Staples (XLP).


Breakouts Just Keep Coming; Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Still Bullish. Buys: ALB, ATI ++

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China's trade surplus soared to US$1.17trn in the 12 months to Aug'25. Yet FX reserves, despite mild monthly improvements, are flat relative to Sep'24, implying continued massive capital flight. </li>
<li>FAI for Jan-Aug'25 rose 0.5%YoY (vs 1.6%YoY for Jan-Jul'25), implying FAI declined 7.2%YoY in Aug'25. Even non-property FAI declined 3.5%YoY in Aug'25, while property FAI declined 19.1%YoY that month.  </li>
<li>Persistent PPI deflation (35 consecutive months) has caused CPI deflation for 5 of the last 8 months. As re-exports via Mexico/ASEAN become costlier, China's real GDP will grow &lt;3%YoY Oct'25-Jun'26.</li>
</ul>


China's trade surplus soared to US$1.17trn in the 12 months to Aug'25. Yet FX reserves, despite mild monthly improvements, are flat relative to Sep'24, implying continued massive capital flight. 
FAI for Jan-Aug'25 rose 0.5%YoY (vs 1.6%YoY for Jan-Jul'25), implying FAI declined 7.2%YoY in Aug'25. Even non-property FAI declined 3.5%YoY in Aug'25, while property FAI declined 19.1%YoY that month.  
Persistent PPI deflation (35 consecutive months) has caused CPI deflation for 5 of the last 8 months. As re-exports via Mexico/ASEAN become costlier, China's real GDP will grow &lt;3%YoY Oct'25-Jun'26.


China: Still on the Edge of a Financial Precipice, Kept Afloat by US Distraction

Podcast of business and financial stories, Behind the Money

Behind the Money

Podcast of business and financial stories

From hostile takeovers to C-suite intrigue, Behind the Money takes you inside the business and financial stories of the moment with reporting from Financial Times journalists around the world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Trump signs executive order reducing tariffs on UK exports and lowering taxes on Chinese goods</li><li>US and China announce reduction in tariffs, leading to relief for Americans and investors</li><li>Despite initial shock and market volatility, US economy appears to be holding up despite tariff impacts</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Trump signs executive order reducing tariffs on UK exports and lowering taxes on Chinese goodsUS and China announce reduction in tariffs, leading to relief for Americans and investorsDespite initial shock and market volatility, US economy appears to be holding up despite tariff impactsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

<ul><li>Discussion shifts towards the market consensus on China, highlighting a cyclical stabilization within a structural slowdown.</li><li>China's credit cycle, green shoots in the economy, and property market are discussed.</li><li>Speaker shares insights on the Chinese real estate sector, mentioning a contraction and the need for new areas of investment.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Discussion shifts towards the market consensus on China, highlighting a cyclical stabilization within a structural slowdown.China's credit cycle, green shoots in the economy, and property market are discussed.Speaker shares insights on the Chinese real estate sector, mentioning a contraction and the need for new areas of investment.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Market Intel from a Commodity Trader & China Analyst

Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

<ul><li>US foreign direct investment (FDI) is shifting away from China and Hong Kong towards countries like Mexico, India, and major European nations due to geopolitical concerns.</li><li>US multinationals are also showing early signs of reshoring and localizing supply chains in high-tech and advanced manufacturing sectors. Overall, these changes indicate a response to geopolitical tensions, although the process may take time to fully develop.</li><li>The Techno-Industrial Policy Playbook discusses the need for effective policies to support U.S. industries in adapting to changing technologies. </li></ul>

US foreign direct investment (FDI) is shifting away from China and Hong Kong towards countries like Mexico, India, and major European nations due to geopolitical concerns.US multinationals are also showing early signs of reshoring and localizing supply chains in high-tech and advanced manufacturing sectors. Overall, these changes indicate a response to geopolitical tensions, although the process may take time to fully develop.The Techno-Industrial Policy Playbook discusses the need for effective policies to support U.S. industries in adapting to changing technologies. 

Real Asset Chartbook Week #6: A Calm Week, From Our Perspective

China

iShares MSCI China ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks to track the performance of the MSCI China Index. The Index is a free float adjusted market cap weighted index designed to measure the performance of equity securities in the top 85% in market cap of Chinese equity markets, as represented by the A-Shares, H-Shares, B-Shares, Red Chips, & P-Chips.

iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI US)

Breakouts Just Keep Coming; Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Still Bullish. Buys: ALB, ATI ++

Breakouts Just Keep Coming $SPX $ARKX $ARKQ $XLY $XRT $ITB $IWO $QTUM $MCHI $XLP; Upgrading Materials to Market Weight $XLB $GDX $XME $REMX; Still...

Vermilion Research

China: Still on the Edge of a Financial Precipice, Kept Afloat by US Distraction

Japanification is accelerating: PPI deflating for 35 consecutive months, CPI for 5 of the last 8 months. FAI is contracting. As re-exports via...

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A case of Schrödinger’s tariffs

Trump signed executive orders reducing tariffs on UK exports and Chinese goods, leading to relief for Americans and positive reactions from...

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Speaker reflects on their experience being on the show, discusses market consensus on China, and shares insights on the Chinese real estate sector...

Money of Mine

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US foreign direct investment (FDI) is shifting away from China and Hong Kong towards countries like Mexico, India, and major European nations due...

Massif Capital Research