Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China has 'won' the first phase of the trade war, with exports up 5%YoY and imports down 1%YoY in Jan-Oct'25 despite an appreciating RMB and high US tariffs (now stabilised). </li>
<li>FAI has declined YoY since Jun'25, declining 12.5%YoY in Oct'25, and severe PPI deflation has persisted for 37 months. Declining imports widened the 12m rolling-sum trade surplus to US$1.17trn. </li>
<li>Stagnant FX reserves show net capital and service/income outflows of US$825bn in Jan-Oct'25. Domestic vulnerabilities, however, are being papered over by the trade truce with the US. Bullish for China.</li>
</ul>


China has 'won' the first phase of the trade war, with exports up 5%YoY and imports down 1%YoY in Jan-Oct'25 despite an appreciating RMB and high US tariffs (now stabilised). 
FAI has declined YoY since Jun'25, declining 12.5%YoY in Oct'25, and severe PPI deflation has persisted for 37 months. Declining imports widened the 12m rolling-sum trade surplus to US$1.17trn. 
Stagnant FX reserves show net capital and service/income outflows of US$825bn in Jan-Oct'25. Domestic vulnerabilities, however, are being papered over by the trade truce with the US. Bullish for China.


China: Winning the Trade War While Still Imploding Domestically

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China &amp; HK allocations among Global funds have hit new lows, with 25.5% of funds avoiding the region entirely and a record 79.6% underweight versus the benchmark.</li>
<li>In the six months leading up to recent stimulus measures, another 5.4% of funds fully exited their China &amp; HK exposure.</li>
<li>Tencent and Alibaba are well below their 2020 highs, while AIA Group ownership moved lower and China Construction Bank continues its long-term decline</li>
</ul>


China &amp; HK allocations among Global funds have hit new lows, with 25.5% of funds avoiding the region entirely and a record 79.6% underweight versus the benchmark.
In the six months leading up to recent stimulus measures, another 5.4% of funds fully exited their China &amp; HK exposure.
Tencent and Alibaba are well below their 2020 highs, while AIA Group ownership moved lower and China Construction Bank continues its long-term decline


China:  Record Bearish Positioning Ahead of Stimulus

Product Marketing Manager, Criat

Raghav Chandra Mathur

Product Marketing Manager

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

<ul>
<li>China’s Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs) across the country have shown a diverse credit profiles with majority of the LGFV’s exhibiting moderate credit risk at the start of this year when broken down by province.</li>
<li>These financing vehicles, that have been used to fund infrastructure and other development-related projects for local governments in China, have been susceptible to varying macroeconomic conditions.</li>
<li>However, at the start of 2024, Criat’s Credit Cycle Index (CCCI) shows that the sector’s credit risk outlook is likely to improve with respect to that of the aggregate credit profile of all Chinese firms.</li>
</ul>


China’s Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs) across the country have shown a diverse credit profiles with majority of the LGFV’s exhibiting moderate credit risk at the start of this year when broken down by province.
These financing vehicles, that have been used to fund infrastructure and other development-related projects for local governments in China, have been susceptible to varying macroeconomic conditions.
However, at the start of 2024, Criat’s Credit Cycle Index (CCCI) shows that the sector’s credit risk outlook is likely to improve with respect to that of the aggregate credit profile of all Chinese firms.


Central Government Policy Aid Set to Catalyze LGFVs' Fortunes in 2024

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> has surged 33.5% over the past 30 days, with its spot price outpacing the slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money.</li>
<li>The current concentration of in-the-money calls hints at active trading and potential strike adjustments ahead, amplified by upcoming events like the 19 March earnings.</li>
<li>This analysis features a novel animated chart of option open interest distribution offering a dynamic visual of market behavior.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) has surged 33.5% over the past 30 days, with its spot price outpacing the slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money.
The current concentration of in-the-money calls hints at active trading and potential strike adjustments ahead, amplified by upcoming events like the 19 March earnings.
This analysis features a novel animated chart of option open interest distribution offering a dynamic visual of market behavior.


Tencent (700 HK) - Surging Price, Strikes, and Volatility. A Novel Look with an Animated Chart

China

iShares MSCI China ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks to track the performance of the MSCI China Index. The Index is a free float adjusted market cap weighted index designed to measure the performance of equity securities in the top 85% in market cap of Chinese equity markets, as represented by the A-Shares, H-Shares, B-Shares, Red Chips, & P-Chips.

iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI US)

China: Winning the Trade War While Still Imploding Domestically

China's record trade surplus, despite stronger RMB, shows China has won 1st phase of the trade war. Vulnerabilities (big net capital outflows,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

China: Record Bearish Positioning Ahead of Stimulus

China & HK allocations among Global funds have hit new lows, with 25.5% of funds avoiding the region entirely and a record 79.6% underweight versus...

Steven Holden

Central Government Policy Aid Set to Catalyze LGFVs' Fortunes in 2024

China’s Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs) across the country have shown a diverse credit profiles with majority of the LGFV’s exhibiting...

Criat

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Tencent (700 HK) - Surging Price, Strikes, and Volatility. A Novel Look with an Animated Chart

Tencent's stock surge has led to a slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money. A novel...

Gaudenz Schneider

China: Winning the Trade War While Still Imploding Domestically

​China's record trade surplus, despite stronger RMB, shows China has won 1st phase of the trade war. Vulnerabilities (big net capital outflows,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

China: Record Bearish Positioning Ahead of Stimulus

China & HK allocations among Global funds have hit new lows, with 25.5% of funds avoiding the region entirely and a record 79.6% underweight versus...

Steven Holden

Central Government Policy Aid Set to Catalyze LGFVs' Fortunes in 2024

China’s Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs) across the country have shown a diverse credit profiles with majority of the LGFV’s exhibiting...

Criat

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Tencent (700 HK) - Surging Price, Strikes, and Volatility. A Novel Look with an Animated Chart

​Tencent's stock surge has led to a slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money. A novel...

Gaudenz Schneider

China's record trade surplus, despite stronger RMB, shows China has won 1st phase of the trade war. Vulnerabilities (big net capital outflows,...

Tencent's stock surge has led to a slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money. A novel...