Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
 Global Liquidity, the main driver of World asset markets, is heading much lower. Bear market is here</li>
<li>
Recession coming: some economies may even already be in recession </li>
<li>
Investor exposure to stocks too high and out-of-line with deteriorating economies</li>
</ul>



 Global Liquidity, the main driver of World asset markets, is heading much lower. Bear market is here

Recession coming: some economies may even already be in recession 

Investor exposure to stocks too high and out-of-line with deteriorating economies


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We still see signs suggesting a test of the lows or a break to new lows is increasingly likely on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>One of those signs is the fact that defensives (Utilities, Staples, pharma, Real Estate) remain at new RS highs.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, WTI crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.</li>
</ul>


We still see signs suggesting a test of the lows or a break to new lows is increasingly likely on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
One of those signs is the fact that defensives (Utilities, Staples, pharma, Real Estate) remain at new RS highs.
Meanwhile, WTI crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.


Sticking With Commodity and Defensive Sectors; Buying Coal, Steel, Gold Stocks

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As we noted last week, $209 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) is arguably the most significant resistance level of all right now.</li>
<li>We would like the see a break above $209 on the IWM in order to have a sustainable new bull market.</li>
<li>4590-4600 is a significant resistance level on the S&amp;P 500 we are watching; if bears fail to show up there, next up would likely be a test of all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


As we noted last week, $209 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) is arguably the most significant resistance level of all right now.
We would like the see a break above $209 on the IWM in order to have a sustainable new bull market.
4590-4600 is a significant resistance level on the S&amp;P 500 we are watching; if bears fail to show up there, next up would likely be a test of all-time highs.


Russell 2000 (IWM) Still Testing $209 Resistance: Actionable Groups: Insurance, Shipping, Utilities

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Active EM Managers underperformed their benchmark by -1.58% in February.</li>
<li>Performance was correlated to fund style and market cap focus, with Value beating Growth and Small/Midcap beating Large/Mega.</li>
<li>Given the net overweight in Russia heading in to the crisis, it was the key driver of the underperformance, but there could be more to come.</li>
</ul>


Active EM Managers underperformed their benchmark by -1.58% in February.
Performance was correlated to fund style and market cap focus, with Value beating Growth and Small/Midcap beating Large/Mega.
Given the net overweight in Russia heading in to the crisis, it was the key driver of the underperformance, but there could be more to come.


Active GEM Funds Performance Update.  Russia O/W Drives Underperformance in February

<ul>
<li>Global Liquidity is already falling from 2021 peaks. Not set to bottom until late-2023</li>
<li>Central Bank tightening is reinforcing this decline. More to come</li>
<li>Ukraine Crisis will not deflect the downtrend. More likely reinforces it</li>
</ul>


Global Liquidity is already falling from 2021 peaks. Not set to bottom until late-2023
Central Bank tightening is reinforcing this decline. More to come
Ukraine Crisis will not deflect the downtrend. More likely reinforces it


The Real Issue For Investors Is Less Russia And More About Skidding Global Liquidity

United States

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI TR Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds emerging market stocks that can predominantly be classified as large and mid-cap. It weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology and rebalances quarterly.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US)

Alert: Do Bears Hunt in Packs? (Part 1)

It's a bear market. We have we warning for several months that it is coming because of skidding Global Liquidity. But as we explain... it will get...

Michael J. Howell

Sticking With Commodity and Defensive Sectors; Buying Coal, Steel, Gold Stocks

Crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the...

Vermilion Research

Russell 2000 (IWM) Still Testing $209 Resistance: Actionable Groups: Insurance, Shipping, Utilities

$209 on the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is arguably the most significant resistance level of all right now, and we would like the see a break above $209 in...

Vermilion Research

Active GEM Funds Performance Update. Russia O/W Drives Underperformance in February

Active EM Managers underperformed their benchmark by -1.58% in February. Given the net overweight in Russia heading in to the crisis, it was the...

Steven Holden

The Real Issue For Investors Is Less Russia And More About Skidding Global Liquidity

Global Liquidity is already falling from 2021 peaks. Central Bank tightening is reinforcing this decline and the Ukraine Crisis will not deflect...

Michael J. Howell