Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We first review at  Q1 performance in the major markets we follow</li>
<li>Then our outlook for Q2 with the Iran War outcome the major wild card</li>
<li>Some short-term vs  long term  implications of the ongoing Iran war </li>
</ul>


We first review at  Q1 performance in the major markets we follow
Then our outlook for Q2 with the Iran War outcome the major wild card
Some short-term vs  long term  implications of the ongoing Iran war 


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are not fighting the trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring a few potential concerns</li>
<li>Concerns: notably global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 5.5-month RS highs, crude oil prices bottoming, and gasoline prices (UGA) breaking out from a 3.5+ year downtrend</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets, Taiwan, Korea, Spain, Japan, and Canada</li>
</ul>


We are not fighting the trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring a few potential concerns
Concerns: notably global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 5.5-month RS highs, crude oil prices bottoming, and gasoline prices (UGA) breaking out from a 3.5+ year downtrend
Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets, Taiwan, Korea, Spain, Japan, and Canada


Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Active EM funds retain a strong Asia bias but run a persistent regional underweight, while consensus overweights remain in the Americas and EMEA positioning continues to improve.</li>
<li>2025 rotation was defined by a decisive shift into South Korea, heavy reductions in India, and rising participation across MENA from historically low ownership levels.</li>
<li>Taiwan is now the largest structural underweight within the Big Four, while LATAM and select European EM markets attract consistent overweights and increasing fund participation.</li>
</ul>


Active EM funds retain a strong Asia bias but run a persistent regional underweight, while consensus overweights remain in the Americas and EMEA positioning continues to improve.
2025 rotation was defined by a decisive shift into South Korea, heavy reductions in India, and rising participation across MENA from historically low ownership levels.
Taiwan is now the largest structural underweight within the Big Four, while LATAM and select European EM markets attract consistent overweights and increasing fund participation.


Active EM Regions & Countries: The Setup After 2025’s Rotation

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500, which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold. We are buying Energy and Consumer Staples</li>
<li>We are monitoring a few potential concerns--notably the 10-year Treasury yield holding above 4.20%, global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 4+ month RS highs, and crude oil prices bottoming.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500, which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold. We are buying Energy and Consumer Staples
We are monitoring a few potential concerns--notably the 10-year Treasury yield holding above 4.20%, global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 4+ month RS highs, and crude oil prices bottoming.


Emerging Markets Leading the Way; Buying Energy; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>We analyse markets of South Korea, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, China, Europe, and the US to study extreme dispersion, extracting repeatable, factor-driven signals beyond macro growth narrative.
</li>
<li>Across these markets, returns were driven by earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery; stability, defensiveness, and high quality without momentum underperformed.</li>
<li>
Cyclicality and operating leverage outperformed, while revenue growth mattered only when converting into earnings and cash, reinforcing bottom-up capital allocation over GDP-led narratives.</li>
</ul>


We analyse markets of South Korea, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, China, Europe, and the US to study extreme dispersion, extracting repeatable, factor-driven signals beyond macro growth narrative.

Across these markets, returns were driven by earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery; stability, defensiveness, and high quality without momentum underperformed.

Cyclicality and operating leverage outperformed, while revenue growth mattered only when converting into earnings and cash, reinforcing bottom-up capital allocation over GDP-led narratives.


United States

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI TR Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds emerging market stocks that can predominantly be classified as large and mid-cap. It weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology and rebalances quarterly.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US)

Q2 Outlook – A Tale of Two Regimes

Our outlook for Q2 2026. Separating the short-term noise from our longer-term investment themes. In Part 1 we look at hard assets while we look at...

Rikki Malik

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives; Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities....

Vermilion Research

Active EM Regions & Countries: The Setup After 2025’s Rotation

Active EM funds enter 2026 with a reshaped country map after 2025 rotation: Korea moves to overweight, India reduces but stabilises, MENA...

Steven Holden

Emerging Markets Leading the Way; Buying Energy; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy

Emerging Markets Leading the Way; Buying Global Energy and Consumer Staples Names; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy. Monitoring a few potential concerns

Vermilion Research

2025 Learnings | Short the Stagnant

Analysis of across markets showed that earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery drove returns, highlighting the importance of...

Pranav Bhavsar

Q2 Outlook – A Tale of Two Regimes

Our outlook for Q2 2026. Separating the short-term noise from our longer-term investment themes. In Part 1 we look at hard assets while we look at...

Rikki Malik

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives; Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities....

Vermilion Research

Active EM Regions & Countries: The Setup After 2025’s Rotation

Active EM funds enter 2026 with a reshaped country map after 2025 rotation: Korea moves to overweight, India reduces but stabilises, MENA...

Steven Holden

Emerging Markets Leading the Way; Buying Energy; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy

Emerging Markets Leading the Way; Buying Global Energy and Consumer Staples Names; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy. Monitoring a few potential concerns

Vermilion Research

2025 Learnings | Short the Stagnant

​Analysis of across markets showed that earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery drove returns, highlighting the importance of...

Pranav Bhavsar

Analysis of across markets showed that earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery drove returns, highlighting the importance of...