External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Two key economic reports published in the eurozone today, are indicating that disinflation is well on its way.</li><li>To begin with, HICP inflation fell to 2.9% in October, down from 4.3% in September, which was below the consensus and our own forecast.</li><li>The bulk of the drop was thanks to energy price inflation, which fell to -11.1% from -4.6% on the back of a sharp negative base effect (in October 2022, energy inflation peaked at 41.5%), but the inflation rates of all other main components also declined in October.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Two key economic reports published in the eurozone today, are indicating that disinflation is well on its way.To begin with, HICP inflation fell to 2.9% in October, down from 4.3% in September, which was below the consensus and our own forecast.The bulk of the drop was thanks to energy price inflation, which fell to -11.1% from -4.6% on the back of a sharp negative base effect (in October 2022, energy inflation peaked at 41.5%), but the inflation rates of all other main components also declined in October.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Welcome to this fourth release in our “Business Cycle Week”, where, besides addressing the just released Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, we’ll probe the probability for a cyclical rebound and assess the implications for equities in particular.</li><li>Take away: Divergence in soft and hard data has scared the outlook for earnings in US industrials the most. Equity betas to soft and hard data show an interesting discrepancy. Long US industrials vs short German industrials look interesting here. 2 reasons for PMI bullishness, 2 reasons for PMI bearishness.</li><li>This week has been all about our ‘business cycle week’ here at Steno Research and for this one we’ll zoom in on both soft and hard data from the manufacturing sector and put it into an equity perspective. </li></ul>

Welcome to this fourth release in our “Business Cycle Week”, where, besides addressing the just released Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, we’ll probe the probability for a cyclical rebound and assess the implications for equities in particular.Take away: Divergence in soft and hard data has scared the outlook for earnings in US industrials the most. Equity betas to soft and hard data show an interesting discrepancy. Long US industrials vs short German industrials look interesting here. 2 reasons for PMI bullishness, 2 reasons for PMI bearishness.This week has been all about our ‘business cycle week’ here at Steno Research and for this one we’ll zoom in on both soft and hard data from the manufacturing sector and put it into an equity perspective. 

Equities Watch: Today’s Philly Fed Figures Make For Bullish Reading

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

<ul><li>The economic outlook for the Euro area has slightly improved over the past quarter driven by declining energy prices, resilient balance sheets across households and corporations, and strong labor markets.</li><li>Although recent positive developments in the Euro area have led to better growth projections, challenges such as high energy costs, monetary tightening, and weak consumption persist.</li><li>Risks to growth and inflation are broadly balanced, but uncertainty remains elevated.</li></ul>

The economic outlook for the Euro area has slightly improved over the past quarter driven by declining energy prices, resilient balance sheets across households and corporations, and strong labor markets.Although recent positive developments in the Euro area have led to better growth projections, challenges such as high energy costs, monetary tightening, and weak consumption persist.Risks to growth and inflation are broadly balanced, but uncertainty remains elevated.

Quarterly Macro Note - Eurozone Economy - March 30, 2023

Selected Quarterly & Annual Newsletters from Funds, Fund Newsletters

Fund Newsletters

Selected Quarterly & Annual Newsletters from Funds

Equity Bottom-Up

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bul / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Equity investors in countries with overvalued currencies have two ways to lose and those with undervalued currencies have two ways to win.</li><li>Today’s strong USD looks, in the end, to be our currency and our problem.</li><li>Keep an eye out for dangerously destructive economic policies, but don’t use that as an excuse to avoid the asset class entirely.</li><li>The yen and euro are at their cheapest levels in decades and hedging emerging market equities would be an expensive proposition even if the currencies weren’t generally cheap versus the USD.</li></ul>

Equity investors in countries with overvalued currencies have two ways to lose and those with undervalued currencies have two ways to win.Today’s strong USD looks, in the end, to be our currency and our problem.Keep an eye out for dangerously destructive economic policies, but don’t use that as an excuse to avoid the asset class entirely.The yen and euro are at their cheapest levels in decades and hedging emerging market equities would be an expensive proposition even if the currencies weren’t generally cheap versus the USD.

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>We recently suggested a number of long/short pair trades, with inflation hedge vehicles forming the long portion of a number of pairs.</li>
<li>Inflation hedge factors have begun to underperform, and the subsequent performance of the pairs is revealing of the factors driving the current market environment.</li>
<li>We are inclined to give the long inflation hedge pairs the benefit of the doubt. They are being sold along in a panic liquidation where all correlations converge to 1.</li>
</ul>


We recently suggested a number of long/short pair trades, with inflation hedge vehicles forming the long portion of a number of pairs.
Inflation hedge factors have begun to underperform, and the subsequent performance of the pairs is revealing of the factors driving the current market environment.
We are inclined to give the long inflation hedge pairs the benefit of the doubt. They are being sold along in a panic liquidation where all correlations converge to 1.


Pairs Monitor: Are Correlations Converging to 1?

Germany

iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective is to provide investment results of publicly traded security in the European Monetary Union markets, as measured by the MSCI EMU Index. The ETF invests in a representative sample of index stocks using a "portfolio sampling" technique and weighting the constituents based on their market cap.  

iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF (EZU US)

Eurozone disinflation well on its way

Two key economic reports published in the eurozone today, are indicating that disinflation is well on its way To begin with, HICP inflation fell...

ABN AMRO

Equities Watch: Today’s Philly Fed Figures Make For Bullish Reading

Welcome to this fourth release in our “Business Cycle Week”, where, besides addressing the just released Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey,...

Steno Research

Quarterly Macro Note - Eurozone Economy - March 30, 2023

The economic outlook for the Euro area has slightly improved over the past quarter driven by declining energy prices, resilient balance sheets...

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

GMO Q2 2022 Quarterly Letter

Equity investors in countries with overvalued currencies have two ways to lose and those with undervalued currencies have two ways to win. Today’s...

Fund Newsletters

Pairs Monitor: Are Correlations Converging to 1?

Give long inflation hedge pairs the benefit of the doubt. In all likelihood, they are being sold along with other equity positions in a panic...

Cam Hui