Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

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Muddy Waters and Beike: Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] must deal with an allegation of “significant” fraud by short seller from Muddy Waters at a large investment: KE Holdings (BEKE.US) [Beike];</li>
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Value At Risk: Tencent owns 11% of Beike’s outstanding shares, having a market value of USD 1.8 bn; and</li>
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Fundamental and Regulatory Challenges Remain:Tencent still has numerous challenges: weaker revenues in its core business, mainland China’s clampdown on gaming/internet companies, and the reining-in of Fintech businesses.</li>
</ul>



Muddy Waters and Beike: Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] must deal with an allegation of “significant” fraud by short seller from Muddy Waters at a large investment: KE Holdings (BEKE.US) [Beike];

Value At Risk: Tencent owns 11% of Beike’s outstanding shares, having a market value of USD 1.8 bn; and

Fundamental and Regulatory Challenges Remain:Tencent still has numerous challenges: weaker revenues in its core business, mainland China’s clampdown on gaming/internet companies, and the reining-in of Fintech businesses.


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”Restricted Default”: After missing two bond coupon payments, Fitch Ratings referred to China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] as being in “restricted default”;</li>
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Civil Litigation: Mainland Chinese creditors have filed 367 civil lawsuits with an aggregate claims value of USD 13.2 bn for overdue payments, as they compete with offshore bondholders; and</li>
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Bank Risk: Shenjing Bank (2066.HK) has CNY 129.4 bn exposure to Evergrande, implying stated NPLs of 24.4%. Other bank creditors: China Minsheng, China Zheshang, Shanghai Pudong, and Citic Trust.</li>
</ul>



”Restricted Default”: After missing two bond coupon payments, Fitch Ratings referred to China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] as being in “restricted default”;

Civil Litigation: Mainland Chinese creditors have filed 367 civil lawsuits with an aggregate claims value of USD 13.2 bn for overdue payments, as they compete with offshore bondholders; and

Bank Risk: Shenjing Bank (2066.HK) has CNY 129.4 bn exposure to Evergrande, implying stated NPLs of 24.4%. Other bank creditors: China Minsheng, China Zheshang, Shanghai Pudong, and Citic Trust.


China Evergrande Group – Bank Fallout Coming

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Liquidity Crisis:Shimao’s ability to cover short-term liquidity needs are very real, as it does not have the wherewithal to bridge the short-term funding gap;  </li>
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Other Nuggets From Auditor: PWC suggests material valuation concerns exacerbate fundamental risks; and</li>
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Left Holding The Bag:We have very little confidence that HSBC Holdings Plc (5.HK) and Bank of Communications (3328.HK) have marked their Shimao financings as NPL. Watch your bank risk.</li>
</ul>



Liquidity Crisis:Shimao’s ability to cover short-term liquidity needs are very real, as it does not have the wherewithal to bridge the short-term funding gap;  

Other Nuggets From Auditor: PWC suggests material valuation concerns exacerbate fundamental risks; and

Left Holding The Bag:We have very little confidence that HSBC Holdings Plc (5.HK) and Bank of Communications (3328.HK) have marked their Shimao financings as NPL. Watch your bank risk.


Shimao Property Holdings – Here We Go Again

<ul>
<li>
Fundamental/Regulatory Constraints: Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent]  has many challenges: weaker revenues attributed to both a slowing economy and mainland China’s clampdown on internet companies, and the reining-in of Fintech;</li>
<li>
Litigation:A class action has been filed on behalf of investors who purchased Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME.US) ADRs, alleging that two prime brokers illegally traded in TME shares; and</li>
<li>
Deniability: Tencent and TME have an awful lot of hair and the timing of the regulatory screw tightening on Tencent’s businesses was intensifying just as the Archegos situation unraveled.   </li>
</ul>



Fundamental/Regulatory Constraints: Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent]  has many challenges: weaker revenues attributed to both a slowing economy and mainland China’s clampdown on internet companies, and the reining-in of Fintech;

Litigation:A class action has been filed on behalf of investors who purchased Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME.US) ADRs, alleging that two prime brokers illegally traded in TME shares; and

Deniability: Tencent and TME have an awful lot of hair and the timing of the regulatory screw tightening on Tencent’s businesses was intensifying just as the Archegos situation unraveled.   


<ul>
<li>
Default: Kaisa Group Holdings (1638.HK) [Kaisa] allegedly failed to pay its USD 400 mn bond;</li>
<li>
Obfuscation On F/S: Part of the problem with Kaisa is how the financial statements broken out, which, in our view, obfuscated the true nature of liquidity at Kaisa; and</li>
<li>
Other Creditors: In addition to offshore bondholders, Kaisa’s main banks include: Bank of China (3988.HK); ICBC (1398.HK); Ping An Bank (000001.CH); China Minsheng Bank (1988.HK); and China CITIC Bank (998.HK).</li>
</ul>



Default: Kaisa Group Holdings (1638.HK) [Kaisa] allegedly failed to pay its USD 400 mn bond;

Obfuscation On F/S: Part of the problem with Kaisa is how the financial statements broken out, which, in our view, obfuscated the true nature of liquidity at Kaisa; and

Other Creditors: In addition to offshore bondholders, Kaisa’s main banks include: Bank of China (3988.HK); ICBC (1398.HK); Ping An Bank (000001.CH); China Minsheng Bank (1988.HK); and China CITIC Bank (998.HK).


Kaisa Group Holdings – Second Domino Falls

Hong Kong

iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of publicly traded securities in the Hong Kong market, as measured by the MSCI Hong Kong Index. The ETF invests in a representative sample of index stocks using a "portfolio sampling" technique.

iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH US)

Tencent Holdings – Adding To Its Woes

TENCENT: Tencent must now deal with a “significant” fraud allegation at its investment, Beike. Tencent owns 11% of Beike’s outstanding shares,...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Evergrande Group – Bank Fallout Coming

EVERGRANDE: Fitch declared Evergrande in “restricted default”. 367 civil actions have been filed, as they compete with offshore bondholders. Most...

Thomas J. Monaco

Shimao Property Holdings – Here We Go Again

SHIMAO PROPERTY: Shimao, in our view, does not have the wherewithal to bridge the short-term funding gap. Further, the auditor suggests that...

Thomas J. Monaco

Tencent Holdings – Dirty Birds

TENCENT: Tencent has many challenges already. A class action has been filed on behalf of investors who purchased Tencent Music ADRs, alleging that...

Thomas J. Monaco

Kaisa Group Holdings – Second Domino Falls

KAISA: Kaisa allegedly failed to pay its USD 400 mn bond. Part of the problem with Kaisa is how the financial statements broken out, which, in our...

Thomas J. Monaco