Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing / Equity Bottom-Up

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)

*New CEO: Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEX] announced that it has appointed Mr. Nicolas Aguzin as its next CEO - effective May 24, 2021.This is an interesting hire, as Mr. Aguzin has virtually no exchange experience and is seemingly not a Mandarin speaker; and*Focus, Focus, Focus:  Let’s just hope and pray that the new CEO doesn’t come from a  swashbuckling deal team.  To be clear, we believe that HKEx has enormous potential provided that it can avoid franchise transforming deals every half decade.

*New CEO: Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEX] announced that it has appointed Mr. Nicolas Aguzin as its next CEO - effective May 24, 2021.This is an interesting hire, as Mr. Aguzin has virtually no exchange experience and is seemingly not a Mandarin speaker; and*Focus, Focus, Focus:  Let’s just hope and pray that the new CEO doesn’t come from a  swashbuckling deal team.  To be clear, we believe that HKEx has enormous potential provided that it can avoid franchise transforming deals every half decade. 

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – No Experience Necessary

*Bankrupt: On February 5, 2021, Luckin filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection - less than a year after Luckin’s admission that its former COO, Jian Liu, “had engaged in certain misconduct, including fabricating certain transactions" beginning in 2019 amounting to about USD 310 mn ahead of its IPO; and*Will CAR Crash Next?: In addition to the common ownership of Luckin Coffee and CAR, Inc. (699.HK), and common former senior company officer problem, we also note that Ernst &amp; Young in mainland China audits both Luckin Coffee and CAR, Inc. That in and of itself does not suggest there is a problem, but the commonality does raise eyebrows. While we are not suggesting that there is a problem with CAR Inc., there are areas where we see where the investment community could challenge CAR Inc. and seek a re-audit for CAR between 2008-18.

*Bankrupt: On February 5, 2021, Luckin filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection - less than a year after Luckin’s admission that its former COO, Jian Liu, “had engaged in certain misconduct, including fabricating certain transactions" beginning in 2019 amounting to about USD 310 mn ahead of its IPO; and*Will CAR Crash Next?: In addition to the common ownership of Luckin Coffee and CAR, Inc. (699.HK), and common former senior company officer problem, we also note that Ernst &amp; Young in mainland China audits both Luckin Coffee and CAR, Inc. That in and of itself does not suggest there is a problem, but the commonality does raise eyebrows. While we are not suggesting that there is a problem with CAR Inc., there are areas where we see where the investment community could challenge CAR Inc. and seek a re-audit for CAR between 2008-18. 

*UK BNPL Review Should Add Structure: Tencent Holding’s (700.HK) [Tencent] Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay] British business and the entire Buy-Now, Pay-Later (BNPL) segment is to be reviewed by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) – not dis-similar to those reviews conducted in Australia. We believe that the outcome will also be similar in that some form national structure and regulation will be put into place, and we remain encouraged by the Crown’s acknowledgement that the BNPL segment adds value; and*Tencent’s Midas Touch: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to its superb return on investment of nearly 550% over the past eight months since the stake announcement, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways.

*UK BNPL Review Should Add Structure: Tencent Holding’s (700.HK) [Tencent] Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay] British business and the entire Buy-Now, Pay-Later (BNPL) segment is to be reviewed by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) – not dis-similar to those reviews conducted in Australia. We believe that the outcome will also be similar in that some form national structure and regulation will be put into place, and we remain encouraged by the Crown’s acknowledgement that the BNPL segment adds value; and*Tencent’s Midas Touch: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to its superb return on investment of nearly 550% over the past eight months since the stake announcement, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways.

*Major BEA Shareholder Under Stress In Front Of Merger: CaixaBank SA (CABK.SM), an 17.3% holder of Bank of East Asia’s (23.HK) [BEA] shares, and still has significant capital concerns. Combined with the acquisition of Bankia (BKIA.SM), pro forma CaixaBank’s (surviving entity) core CET1 target is 11.9%. With CaixaBank's restructuring charge only sufficient to fund EUR 1 bn in cost cuts, CaixaBank will need to find additional ways to manufacture capital in order to fund the restructuring - including asset sales, lower dividends, and/or capital raise; and*Expecting A BEA Offload: With an ownership value at EUR 786 mn, a capital charge of EUR 1.6 bn at pro forma CaixaBank under Basel III, the aforementioned solvency constraints at Caixabank, a fundamentally struggling BEA, and a resurgent mainland China, CaixaBank would have to finally be looking for an exit – which would be a massive overhang on the shares of BEA. The key terms of the CaixaBank/BEA Shareholder  Agreement likely cannot be upheld by the former given that its financial problems prevent it from fulfilling its responsibilities.

*Major BEA Shareholder Under Stress In Front Of Merger: CaixaBank SA (CABK.SM), an 17.3% holder of Bank of East Asia’s (23.HK) [BEA] shares, and still has significant capital concerns. Combined with the acquisition of Bankia (BKIA.SM), pro forma CaixaBank’s (surviving entity) core CET1 target is 11.9%. With CaixaBank's restructuring charge only sufficient to fund EUR 1 bn in cost cuts, CaixaBank will need to find additional ways to manufacture capital in order to fund the restructuring - including asset sales, lower dividends, and/or capital raise; and*Expecting A BEA Offload: With an ownership value at EUR 786 mn, a capital charge of EUR 1.6 bn at pro forma CaixaBank under Basel III, the aforementioned solvency constraints at Caixabank, a fundamentally struggling BEA, and a resurgent mainland China, CaixaBank would have to finally be looking for an exit – which would be a massive overhang on the shares of BEA. The key terms of the CaixaBank/BEA Shareholder  Agreement likely cannot be upheld by the former given that its financial problems prevent it from fulfilling its responsibilities.  

Bank of East Asia – How Much Longer Can Caixa Hold On?

*Poor Results See No Signs Of Near-Term Abatement: Singapore Exchange (SGX.SP) [SGX] reported FY 1H21 results of SGD 240.4 mn, declining SGD 18.2 mn (7.0%) HOH. Excluding the SGD 15.6 mn in gains primarily attributed to non-cash fair value on its BidFX acquisition, SGX’core operating result would have declined SGD 33.9 mn (13.1%) over the period; and*Derivatives Challenges Led By Taiwan: The largest semi-annual results delta was attributed to derivatives, which declined SGD 33.6 mn or 12.2%. SGX ceased trading of MSCI Taiwan futures contracts on October 30, 2020 with their move to the Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEx]. Until recently, 99.8% of the Taiwan index futures volumes has were held by SGX, but its dominant market share position is beginning to crack. As time passes, we will get an idea of how much volume of the Taiwan index futures will remain with MSCI indices and move to HKEx which has significant implications for SGX's lucrative A50 contract.

*Poor Results See No Signs Of Near-Term Abatement: Singapore Exchange (SGX.SP) [SGX] reported FY 1H21 results of SGD 240.4 mn, declining SGD 18.2 mn (7.0%) HOH. Excluding the SGD 15.6 mn in gains primarily attributed to non-cash fair value on its BidFX acquisition, SGX’core operating result would have declined SGD 33.9 mn (13.1%) over the period; and*Derivatives Challenges Led By Taiwan: The largest semi-annual results delta was attributed to derivatives, which declined SGD 33.6 mn or 12.2%. SGX ceased trading of MSCI Taiwan futures contracts on October 30, 2020 with their move to the Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEx]. Until recently, 99.8% of the Taiwan index futures volumes has were held by SGX, but its dominant market share position is beginning to crack. As time passes, we will get an idea of how much volume of the Taiwan index futures will remain with MSCI indices and move to HKEx which has significant implications for SGX's lucrative A50 contract.

Hong Kong

iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of publicly traded securities in the Hong Kong market, as measured by the MSCI Hong Kong Index. The ETF invests in a representative sample of index stocks using a "portfolio sampling" technique.

iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH US)

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – No Experience Necessary

HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING: HKEX appointed Mr. Nicolas Aguzin as CEO. This is an interesting hire, as Mr. Aguzin has no exchange experience. We...

Thomas J. Monaco

Luckin Coffee – Chapter 15

LUCKIN COFFEE: On February 5, 2021, Luckin filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection after COO engaged in misconduct. Luckin and CAR have common...

Thomas J. Monaco

Tencent Holdings - UK Speed Bump

TENCENT HOLDINGS: Tencent's Afterpay British business and BNPL segment being reviewed by FCA – not dis-similar to Australia. Review should lead to...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bank of East Asia – How Much Longer Can Caixa Hold On?

BANK OF EAST ASIA: CaixaBank is a 17.3% holder of BEA, and still has significant capital concerns. CaixaBank needs to find additional ways to...

Thomas J. Monaco

Singapore Exchange - Going South

SINGAPORE EXCHANGE: SGX FY 1H21 results declined 7.0% HOH. Excluding the BidFX gain, SGX’ core operating result would have declined 13.1%. SGX...

Thomas J. Monaco