IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a>’s IFA considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>’s scheme privatisation offer of HK$155 per share to be fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>The key condition is scheme approval by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders' rejection). The scheme vote remains low risk.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and privatisation precedents. This is done. At the current price and for a 4 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.0%/7.1%.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)’s IFA considers HSBC Holdings (5 HK)’s scheme privatisation offer of HK$155 per share to be fair and reasonable. 
The key condition is scheme approval by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders' rejection). The scheme vote remains low risk.
The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and privatisation precedents. This is done. At the current price and for a 4 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.0%/7.1%.


Hang Seng Bank (11 HK): HSBC (5 HK)’s Scheme Vote on 8 January

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Back on the 9th October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a> announced an Offer from controlling parent, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>, by way of a Scheme.</li>
<li>HSBC offered HK$155/share, a 30.3% premium to last close. The price was final. A third interim dividend was bolted on. Optically - and fundamentally - the price was bang on.</li>
<li>
The <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/1215/2025121500037.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scheme Doc</a> is now out, with the Court Meeting on the 8th January 2026.  Payment around 4th Feb. The IFA, in a bare-bones report, concluded "fair &amp; reasonable". </li>
</ul>


Back on the 9th October, Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) announced an Offer from controlling parent, HSBC Holdings (5 HK), by way of a Scheme.
HSBC offered HK$155/share, a 30.3% premium to last close. The price was final. A third interim dividend was bolted on. Optically - and fundamentally - the price was bang on.

The Scheme Doc is now out, with the Court Meeting on the 8th January 2026.  Payment around 4th Feb. The IFA, in a bare-bones report, concluded "fair &amp; reasonable". 


Hang Seng (11 HK): 8th Jan Vote On HSBC's Offer. Clean Deal.

<ul>
<li>Since announcing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC (5 HK)</a>'s Offer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a> has traded tight-ish to terms, at a ~3.9% gross spread (including dividends). Or ~10% annualised if a five month offramp.</li>
<li>Annualised spreads for clean liquid deals in Asia-Pac, do tend to widen after day 1. Meaning, the gross spread remains roughly static as investors hit their full quota early on.  </li>
<li>HSBC shareholders are questioning the deal merits. For Hang Seng minorities, this is a great exit. Inside this report, I take a deeper dive into Hong Kong bank takeover precedents.
</li>
</ul>


Since announcing HSBC (5 HK)'s Offer, Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) has traded tight-ish to terms, at a ~3.9% gross spread (including dividends). Or ~10% annualised if a five month offramp.
Annualised spreads for clean liquid deals in Asia-Pac, do tend to widen after day 1. Meaning, the gross spread remains roughly static as investors hit their full quota early on.  
HSBC shareholders are questioning the deal merits. For Hang Seng minorities, this is a great exit. Inside this report, I take a deeper dive into Hong Kong bank takeover precedents.



Hang Seng (11 HK)'s Offer: HSBC Investors Are Not Sold On The Strategic Benefits

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Domestic credit growth in Hong Kong weakened further in latest monthly release at -2.2% YoY. Weekly Centa City Leading Index grinds lower, a more HFD point relevant to credit</li>
<li>The acceleration in domestic credit growth in Indonesia is unique, where growth is up to +11.2% YoY in most recent month vs +5.2% YoY in the same month last year  </li>
<li>We remain concerned about credit metrics for HK's banks given contracting growth, worsening property, which is collateral. Many HK banks have done little in provisioning </li>
</ul>


Domestic credit growth in Hong Kong weakened further in latest monthly release at -2.2% YoY. Weekly Centa City Leading Index grinds lower, a more HFD point relevant to credit
The acceleration in domestic credit growth in Indonesia is unique, where growth is up to +11.2% YoY in most recent month vs +5.2% YoY in the same month last year  
We remain concerned about credit metrics for HK's banks given contracting growth, worsening property, which is collateral. Many HK banks have done little in provisioning 


Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HK &amp; China CRE credit impaired loans are rising sharply and high in 3Q23. We believe there is risk that the bank has to take much higher credit costs. </li>
<li>Not only Mainland China CRE where there are risks. HSBC shows its ECL coverage ratio for HK CRE rising 45% over the past nine months, from 4Q22 to 3Q23. </li>
<li>LT credit costs shows HSBC's provisioning is like during a benign environment, at ~1/3 of its LT average. Its +34% QoQ credit costs in 4Q22 is worth keeping in mind. </li>
</ul>


HK &amp; China CRE credit impaired loans are rising sharply and high in 3Q23. We believe there is risk that the bank has to take much higher credit costs. 
Not only Mainland China CRE where there are risks. HSBC shows its ECL coverage ratio for HK CRE rising 45% over the past nine months, from 4Q22 to 3Q23. 
LT credit costs shows HSBC's provisioning is like during a benign environment, at ~1/3 of its LT average. Its +34% QoQ credit costs in 4Q22 is worth keeping in mind. 


HSBC - HK & China CRE Credit Impaired Loans Now 25.8% from 20.2% | ECL Coverage for HK CRE up 45%

Hong Kong

The Bank of East Asia, Limited and its subsidiaries provide general banking, related financial, business corporate, and investor services.

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Bank of East Asia (23 HK)

Hang Seng Bank (11 HK): HSBC (5 HK)’s Scheme Vote on 8 January

The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and privatisation precedents. This is done. At the current price and for a 4 February payment,...

Arun George

Hang Seng (11 HK): 8th Jan Vote On HSBC's Offer. Clean Deal.

Safe deal. Effectively this is a term deposit hybrid. If not in, this is one to pick up on a (unlikely) wobble.Otherwise, look elsewhere.

David Blennerhassett

Hang Seng (11 HK)'s Offer: HSBC Investors Are Not Sold On The Strategic Benefits

Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) has announced that the Scheme Doc dispatch will be pushed out to the 17 December 2025, a little under a week ahead of my...

David Blennerhassett

Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

Domestic credit growth HFD shows weakening figures in Hong Kong, far better figures and strong in Indonesia, and still strong, rising in Taiwan....

Daniel Tabbush

HSBC - HK & China CRE Credit Impaired Loans Now 25.8% from 20.2% | ECL Coverage for HK CRE up 45%

NYCB, Aozora, now Pfandbriefbank in Germany, CRE risks are clear. HSBC is not only exposed in places like Hong Kong and China, but also material...

Daniel Tabbush

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