Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

The Indonesian economy has been underperforming despite the tremendous advantages it possesses - a favourable demographic dividend, abundant natural resources, open capital markets and a decent manufacturing base. However, with some of the cyclical negatives easing and improvements in policies towards a more open economy, we believe Indonesia's growth trajectory could surprise positively. One concern we have, however, is the possibility that the Rupiah may come under increased pressure in the…

The Indonesian economy has been underperforming despite the tremendous advantages it possesses - a favourable demographic dividend, abundant natural resources, open capital markets and a decent manufacturing base. However, with some of the cyclical negatives easing and improvements in policies towards a more open economy, we believe Indonesia's growth trajectory could surprise positively. One concern we have, however, is the possibility that the Rupiah may come under increased pressure in the…

Asia Economic Research, Centennial Asia Advisors

Asees Bajaj

Asia Economic Research

Policy reforms being stepped up<ul>
<li>
Negative Investment List (DNI) Regulation signed: The government signed a regulation on the DNI which was first announced in Feb 16, which lists fields of businesses that are open and closed to foreign investment with varying percentages of ownership. The regulation aims to increase investor interest in different sectors, such as cold-storage, movies and pharmaceutical industries.</li>
<li>
The government is also looking to speed up stimulus: With 193 of the 203 regulations…</li>
</ul>

 Policy reforms being stepped up

Negative Investment List (DNI) Regulation signed: The government signed a regulation on the DNI which was first announced in Feb 16, which lists fields of businesses that are open and closed to foreign investment with varying percentages of ownership. The regulation aims to increase investor interest in different sectors, such as cold-storage, movies and pharmaceutical industries.

The government is also looking to speed up stimulus: With 193 of the 203 regulations…


Indonesia: Joko Government Makes Policy Headway, but Internal Rifts Rising

<ul><li>The nation’s second largest party, Golkar, concluded its Congress and elected former Speaker of Parliament Setya Novanto as the new Chairman. While activists have expressed concerns over corruption allegations against Setya, his election and the reconciliation among warring factions that ensued bode well.</li></ul>Implications: President Jokowi strengthened <ul><li>The key positive for Indonesia is that Setya is close to Luhut Panjaitan, President Jokowi's co-ordinating minister for political and security…</li></ul>

The nation’s second largest party, Golkar, concluded its Congress and elected former Speaker of Parliament Setya Novanto as the new Chairman. While activists have expressed concerns over corruption allegations against Setya, his election and the reconciliation among warring factions that ensued bode well.Implications: President Jokowi strengthened The key positive for Indonesia is that Setya is close to Luhut Panjaitan, President Jokowi's co-ordinating minister for political and security…

Indonesia: President Jokowi Stronger than Ever

<ul><li>GDP grew 4.92% y/y in 1Q16, down from 5.04% y/y growth in 4Q15.</li><li>Forward looking indicators do not spell a bright outlook for the economy: there are signs of moderation in domestic demand, and this will drag down manufacturing.</li><li>Revenue collection is shrinking and thus fiscal policy is constrained.</li><li>Bank Indonesia is expected to add more monetary stimulus, but this alone may not be enough to drive growth above 5.0% in 2016.</li></ul>

GDP grew 4.92% y/y in 1Q16, down from 5.04% y/y growth in 4Q15.Forward looking indicators do not spell a bright outlook for the economy: there are signs of moderation in domestic demand, and this will drag down manufacturing.Revenue collection is shrinking and thus fiscal policy is constrained.Bank Indonesia is expected to add more monetary stimulus, but this alone may not be enough to drive growth above 5.0% in 2016.

Indonesia: Limited Policy Options to Boost Growth

<ul><li>Export growth remains lacklustre and mostly contractionary. The only bright spots for exports are Malaysia and Vietnam, but even Malaysia’s export growth is dimming as Vietnam holds up well, testament to its competitiveness.</li><li>Purchasing manager surveys had more negatives than positives. Inflation rates have remained broadly low suggesting room for monetary easing, but domestic conditions limit the scope of monetary policy for some countries in the region. </li></ul>

Export growth remains lacklustre and mostly contractionary. The only bright spots for exports are Malaysia and Vietnam, but even Malaysia’s export growth is dimming as Vietnam holds up well, testament to its competitiveness.Purchasing manager surveys had more negatives than positives. Inflation rates have remained broadly low suggesting room for monetary easing, but domestic conditions limit the scope of monetary policy for some countries in the region. 

Asian Outlook and the Implications for Monetary Policy

Indonesia

iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index.

iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO US)

Indonesia: Is the Rupiah at Risk?

The Indonesian economy has been underperforming despite the tremendous advantages it possesses - a favourable demographic dividend, abundant...

Manu Bhaskaran

Indonesia: Joko Government Makes Policy Headway, but Internal Rifts Rising

Policy reforms being stepped up Negative Investment List (DNI) Regulation signed: The government signed a regulation on the DNI which was first...

Asees Bajaj

Indonesia: President Jokowi Stronger than Ever

The nation’s second largest party, Golkar, concluded its Congress and elected former Speaker of Parliament Setya Novanto as the new Chairman. While...

Manu Bhaskaran

Indonesia: Limited Policy Options to Boost Growth

GDP grew 4.92% y/y in 1Q16, down from 5.04% y/y growth in 4Q15. Forward looking indicators do not spell a bright outlook for the economy: there...

Asees Bajaj

Asian Outlook and the Implications for Monetary Policy

Export growth remains lacklustre and mostly contractionary. The only bright spots for exports are Malaysia and Vietnam, but even Malaysia’s export...

Manu Bhaskaran