Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGE) is looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Indonesia IPO. PGE is an Indonesian state owned power producer which utilizes geothermal energy to produce electricity.</li>
<li>PGE currently manages 13 Geothermal Working Areas with a total capacity of 1,877 MW, of which 672 MW is owned by it, while 1,205 MW is via joint operations.</li>
<li>In this note, we take an early look at the IPO.</li>
</ul>


Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGE) is looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Indonesia IPO. PGE is an Indonesian state owned power producer which utilizes geothermal energy to produce electricity.
PGE currently manages 13 Geothermal Working Areas with a total capacity of 1,877 MW, of which 672 MW is owned by it, while 1,205 MW is via joint operations.
In this note, we take an early look at the IPO.


Pertamina Geothermal Energy IPO Early Look- Ticks the ESG Box but Has Missed Its Targets in the Past

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 12 July, cash-rich mining mini-conglomerate (mining, contracting, equipment, etc) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ)</a> announced a buyback discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/united-tractors-untr-ij-buyback-sure-to-be-impactful" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:72838" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ) Buyback - Sure to Be Impactful</a>. </li>
<li>The buyback was to go for three months but three months later, it was extended or another three months. </li>
<li>Performance has been good. How much has been bought back. Tough to know, but we can make some pretty educated guesses.</li>
</ul>


On 12 July, cash-rich mining mini-conglomerate (mining, contracting, equipment, etc) United Tractors (UNTR IJ) announced a buyback discussed in United Tractors (UNTR IJ) Buyback - Sure to Be Impactful. 
The buyback was to go for three months but three months later, it was extended or another three months. 
Performance has been good. How much has been bought back. Tough to know, but we can make some pretty educated guesses.


United Tractors - Buyback Extended - Maybe 50% To Go

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Riding the boom in energy prices, Indonesia had twin surpluses in 1H2022: a fiscal surplus of 0.9% of GDP and a BoP current account surplus of 0.6% of GDP.</li>
<li>After last week's policy rate hike, real interest rates are close to positive. Fiscal strength allows the government to boost spending to counter the OECD recession over the next year.</li>
<li>We expect real GDP growth of 6%YoY in 2H2022, and 6.3% in 2023. With nominal GDP surging nearly 15%, EPS will be resurgent and valuations attractive. Overweight Indonesia.  </li>
</ul>


Riding the boom in energy prices, Indonesia had twin surpluses in 1H2022: a fiscal surplus of 0.9% of GDP and a BoP current account surplus of 0.6% of GDP.
After last week's policy rate hike, real interest rates are close to positive. Fiscal strength allows the government to boost spending to counter the OECD recession over the next year.
We expect real GDP growth of 6%YoY in 2H2022, and 6.3% in 2023. With nominal GDP surging nearly 15%, EPS will be resurgent and valuations attractive. Overweight Indonesia.  


Indonesia: Set to Accelerate Amid the OECD Recession, Helped by Twin Surpluses

<ul>
<li>FOMC raised the FF rate by 75bp for the third consecutive time, taking it to 3-3.25% as expected. We expect the Fed Funds rate to peak at 5% in Mar’23.</li>
<li>The more aggressive monetary tightening by the US (outlined in the SER) will likely bring forward the US recession to Q2CY23 (two quarters ahead of our previous forecast). </li>
<li>USD will continue to strengthen, weakening the prospects for emerging markets. India, Indonesia, Vietnam will be safe havens, and Japan will continue riding the weak Yen. Avoid EM-creditor China. </li>
</ul>


FOMC raised the FF rate by 75bp for the third consecutive time, taking it to 3-3.25% as expected. We expect the Fed Funds rate to peak at 5% in Mar’23.
The more aggressive monetary tightening by the US (outlined in the SER) will likely bring forward the US recession to Q2CY23 (two quarters ahead of our previous forecast). 
USD will continue to strengthen, weakening the prospects for emerging markets. India, Indonesia, Vietnam will be safe havens, and Japan will continue riding the weak Yen. Avoid EM-creditor China. 


FOMC Acknowledges Its Policy Error and Will Front-Load Rate Hikes

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BNI posted a poor set of 4Q21 results, given the generally ignored continued credit deterioration; </li>
<li>Results were heavily reliant on a negative 10.0% tax rate for 4Q21, which goes away in 2022; and </li>
<li>BNI recently announced a "me too" deal to acquire a 63.9% stake in Bank Mayora at 2x book, at a time when BNI’s own house is a dumpster fire. </li>
</ul>


BNI posted a poor set of 4Q21 results, given the generally ignored continued credit deterioration; 
Results were heavily reliant on a negative 10.0% tax rate for 4Q21, which goes away in 2022; and 
BNI recently announced a "me too" deal to acquire a 63.9% stake in Bank Mayora at 2x book, at a time when BNI’s own house is a dumpster fire. 


Bank Negara Indonesia – What on Earth Is Management Thinking?

Indonesia

iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index.

iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO US)

Pertamina Geothermal Energy IPO Early Look- Ticks the ESG Box but Has Missed Its Targets in the Past

Pertamina Geothermal Energy is looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Indonesia IPO. PGE is an Indonesian state owned power producer which...

Sumeet Singh

United Tractors - Buyback Extended - Maybe 50% To Go

The United Tractors buyback (+ sector bias) has helped the stock outperform its Indo large cap peers by 27% since the announcement. Data suggests...

Travis Lundy

Indonesia: Set to Accelerate Amid the OECD Recession, Helped by Twin Surpluses

With a BoPCA surplus of 0.6% & fiscal surplus of 0.9% of GDP in 1H2022, Indonesia is able to provide a big fiscal stimulus over the next year. EPS...

Prasenjit K. Basu

FOMC Acknowledges Its Policy Error and Will Front-Load Rate Hikes

FOMC has tightened 300bp in Mar-Sep'22 & is set to tighten another 125bp by end-22. US recession will likely begin Q2CY23. Avoid stagflationary...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Bank Negara Indonesia – What on Earth Is Management Thinking?

BANK NEGARA INDONESIA: BNI posted a poor set of 4Q21 results, and heavily dependent on a negative 10.0% tax rate. BNI recently announced deal comes...

Thomas J. Monaco