Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Where will the inflation surprises come from?<ul><li>Deflationary pressures are dissipating leading to an upward march of price levels worldwide.</li><li>We examine a number of metrics used to determine inflationary pressures and use them to determine which countries would see unexpectedly faster inflation than expected.</li><li>In summary, upside surprises to inflation are likely to be seen in China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.</li></ul>

Where will the inflation surprises come from?Deflationary pressures are dissipating leading to an upward march of price levels worldwide.We examine a number of metrics used to determine inflationary pressures and use them to determine which countries would see unexpectedly faster inflation than expected.In summary, upside surprises to inflation are likely to be seen in China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.

Where Will the Inflation Surprises Come From?

There is one clear upside and two potential downsides from the current trajectory of policy and economic activity in the US.First, the economy appears to be in a positive spiral, likely to boost Asian exports by more than expected:The upside surprise in US manufacturing is just the beginning of more upside surprises in the US, a virtuous upward spiral is emerging:<ul><li>
Fed’s Beige Book revealed tightening labour markets and rising wages: Anecdotal information from Jan 17 to mid-Feb 17 pointed towards…</li></ul>

There is one clear upside and two potential downsides from the current trajectory of policy and economic activity in the US.First, the economy appears to be in a positive spiral, likely to boost Asian exports by more than expected:The upside surprise in US manufacturing is just the beginning of more upside surprises in the US, a virtuous upward spiral is emerging:
Fed’s Beige Book revealed tightening labour markets and rising wages: Anecdotal information from Jan 17 to mid-Feb 17 pointed towards…

How Much Risk Does the US Pose to Asian Economies?

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

-The oil majors' favourite refining hub in ASEAN is Singapore, while the crude-oil/gas comes mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei. Infusion of Saudi capital will help to partially redress that, although Saudi Arabia is only the 7th largest oil-refining country, and ARAMCO has moderate amounts of technological expertise (mainly from its ownership of S-Oil in Korea). -Malaysia and (especially) Indonesia have been wary of "Arabised" or Wahhabi Islam, and see Saudi offers to widen Arabic…

-The oil majors' favourite refining hub in ASEAN is Singapore, while the crude-oil/gas comes mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei. Infusion of Saudi capital will help to partially redress that, although Saudi Arabia is only the 7th largest oil-refining country, and ARAMCO has moderate amounts of technological expertise (mainly from its ownership of S-Oil in Korea). -Malaysia and (especially) Indonesia have been wary of "Arabised" or Wahhabi Islam, and see Saudi offers to widen Arabic…

King Salman Bearing Gifts: Implications for ASEAN, Oil-Refining and Religion

South China Sea: US and China remain the key despite ASEAN efforts<ul><li>
US blows hot and cold with China: Despite US Secretary of State Tillerson’s amicable conversation with China’s State Councillor Yang Jiechi when they re-affirmed the importance of a constructive US-China relationship, a US carrier group led by the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson began ‘routine operations’ in the South China Sea. This appears to be a sign that the Trump Administration might want to push back harder on China’s…</li></ul>

South China Sea: US and China remain the key despite ASEAN efforts
US blows hot and cold with China: Despite US Secretary of State Tillerson’s amicable conversation with China’s State Councillor Yang Jiechi when they re-affirmed the importance of a constructive US-China relationship, a US carrier group led by the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson began ‘routine operations’ in the South China Sea. This appears to be a sign that the Trump Administration might want to push back harder on China’s…

US and China Push Their Respective Envelopes

Economic integration in Asia-Pacific has been on the back foot ever since US President Donald Trump repudiated the painstakingly negotiated Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). While there remains hope among some countries that the TPP might still take effect in modified form, this would prove to be a tall order without the participation of the US, the world’s largest economy.The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) – misplaced hopes for a TPP-liteThere has been considerable talk about changing President…

Economic integration in Asia-Pacific has been on the back foot ever since US President Donald Trump repudiated the painstakingly negotiated Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). While there remains hope among some countries that the TPP might still take effect in modified form, this would prove to be a tall order without the participation of the US, the world’s largest economy.The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) – misplaced hopes for a TPP-liteThere has been considerable talk about changing President…

Asian Economic Integration Faces Headwinds

United States

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Where Will the Inflation Surprises Come From?

Where will the inflation surprises come from? Deflationary pressures are dissipating leading to an upward march of price levels worldwide. We...

Manu Bhaskaran

How Much Risk Does the US Pose to Asian Economies?

There is one clear upside and two potential downsides from the current trajectory of policy and economic activity in the US.First, the economy...

Manu Bhaskaran

King Salman Bearing Gifts: Implications for ASEAN, Oil-Refining and Religion

-The oil majors' favourite refining hub in ASEAN is Singapore, while the crude-oil/gas comes mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei. Infusion...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US and China Push Their Respective Envelopes

South China Sea: US and China remain the key despite ASEAN efforts US blows hot and cold with China: Despite US Secretary of State Tillerson’s...

Manu Bhaskaran

Asian Economic Integration Faces Headwinds

Economic integration in Asia-Pacific has been on the back foot ever since US President Donald Trump repudiated the painstakingly negotiated...

Manu Bhaskaran